This paper examines the existence of a long-run relationship between population and per capita income in Pakistan for the period 1960-2001 using cointegration analysis. Unit root results show that population is integrated of order zero while per capita income is integrated of order one; further, Johansen’s procedure show that no long-run cointegrating relationship exists. Thus, population growth neither causes per capita income growth nor is caused by it. A corollary is that population growth neither stimulates per capita income growth nor reduces it.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, population growth, economic development, per capita income.
JEL: N/A.

This study examines the regulatory intervention in India and Pakistan in response to episodes of excessive market volatility and manipulation and its effectiveness in achieving declared objectives. Our empirical analysis indicates that while the Indian regulatory agencies seem to have achieved their objectives in curtailing manipulative and speculative behavior, there appears to be little impact on such behavior in the case of the Karachi Stock Exchange. Significant differences in the regulatory effectiveness and industry structure may explain the difference in the market behavior outcomes following regulatory interventions. A stronger competitive environment in India, because of the existence of multiple organized exchanges, seems to facilitate effective enforcement of public policy.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, India, regulatory intervention, speculative behavior, Karachi stock exchange.
JEL: N/A.

This paper focuses on the role of the financial futures market in the volatility of Pakistan’s stock market and determines whether the stock futures price is capable of providing some relevant information for predicting the spot price. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach is used to measure volatility in the spot and the futures market and to analyze the relationships between spot and futures market volatility. Causality and feedback relationships between the two markets are analyzed and determined through the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). Empirical results support the evidence that spot prices generally lead the futures prices in incorporating new information, and that volatility in the futures market does not increase volatility in the spot market. Rather the study finds more consistent support for the alternative hypothesis that volatility in the futures market may be an outgrowth of the volatile spot market.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, stock market, GARCH, VECM.
JEL: N/A.

This paper investigates the calendar anomalies in the Singapore stock market over the recent period from 1993-2005. Specifically, changes in stock index returns are examined surrounding January (the January effect), on different days of the week (the day-of-the-week effect), around the turn of the month (the turn-of-the-month effect) and before holidays (the pre-holiday effect). The findings reveal that these anomalies have largely disappeared from the Singapore stock market in recent years. The disappearance of these anomalies has important implications for the efficient market hypothesis and the trading behavior of investors.
KEYWORDS: Calendar anomalies, January effect, day-of-the-week effect, turn- of-the-month effect, pre-holiday effect.
JEL: C10.

Consistent with asymmetric information arguments, prior research has shown that the financial market typically responds negatively to the announcement of a seasoned equity offering (SEO). Korajczyk and Levy (2003), however, suggest that while some firms time the issuance of their common stock to take advantage of outside investor overvaluations, financially constrained firms do not. We examine whether prior information on how financially constrained a firm is along with its growth prospects influences the financial market’s response to the firm’s announcement to sell common stock. We find evidence that the financial market does condition its response upon such information using a sample of SEOs from the U.S. Our results also have implications for the financial market’s reaction to SEOs/rights offerings in emerging markets.
KEYWORDS: Financial market, reaction, seasoned equity offering, SEO, common stock.
JEL: N/A.

This paper is an ethnographic study defining and assessing the organizational culture exhibited by Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). It primarily focuses on four cultural categories: clan, adhocracy, hierarchy and market-driven. These conceptual domains have been examined by the Organizational Culture Assessment Instrument. Results from a sample of 162 SMEs in the Rawalpindi/Islamabad area indicate that SME culture lacks creativity, innovation, freedom and risk taking. SMEs are not looking to change in the future, preferring the status quo. The most important finding is that SMEs exhibit a market- oriented culture focusing on results, competition and achievements.
KEYWORDS: ethnographic study, SMEs, Pakistan, Islamabad, Rawalpindi.
JEL: N/A.

This note discusses the workings of the Dispute Settlement Process (DSP) of the WTO, and the major problems concerning the implementation of decisions in the DSP. It provides some suggestions in order for the DSP to work for the benefit of all. It maintains that the ability to extend dispute settlement across agreements is one of the strengths of the World Trade Organization. The author concludes that substantial reform can be undertaken in the DSP if concerted efforts are made to quantify economic damages for working out the suspension of concessions.
KEYWORDS: WTO, DSP, Dispute Settlement Process, developing countries.
JEL: N/A.

Levitt, Steven D., and Stephen J. Dubner, Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything, Harper Collins Publishers, New York, NY, 2005, pp 356, Price: Hardback $ 27.95. Ever wondered why drug dealers still live with their mothers? Why the United States’ crime rate plummeted to new lows in the 90s? Why did the racist hate group the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) falter as an organized unit in America? What do school teachers and sumo wrestlers have in common? “Why” is something Steven D. Levitt does not cease to question. Levitt along with his amanuensis, Stephen Dubner has written a classic titled, Freakonomics.
KEYWORDS: Book review, freakonomics.
JEL: N/A.

The Second Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy opened with the Rector of the Lahore School of Economics, Dr. Shahid Amjad Chaudhry, recalling that the first conference last year had seen a good gathering of policy makers led by the Governor of the State Bank Dr. Ishrat Hussain, the private sector comprising bankers and industrialists, and academia. The dialogue generated on public policy had been both intense and diverse, ranging across macro, sectoral and institutional issues, especially edifying for the student body of the School. Dr. Shahid Amjad discussed how this experience warranted the institutionalisation of an annual conference, hence this second conference. The tradition had also been set for the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan to deliver the inaugural address at the conference.
KEYWORDS: Lahore School, Pakistan, second, annual conference, Pakistan economy, management.
JEL: N/A.

This paper points out that GDP growth is fundamentally on track although a little below the expected 7% target owing to commodity sector weaknesses. The rising trend in unemployment has been reversed over 2002-04. It is expected that longer trend growth over the decade will be over 6%. However, there are certain macroeconomic imbalances, the current account deficit, the widening savings-investment gap and inflationary pressures, that need to be managed. Pakistan’s economy continues to remain on a high-growth trajectory during the current fiscal year, though the real GDP growth rate for the year seems likely to be lower than the 7 percent target. The expectation of the slowdown, relative to the FY06 annual target, owes principally to the (estimated) weakness in the commodity producing sectors of the economy, the impact of which will be partially offset by an anticipated above-target performance of the services sector.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, economic management.
JEL: N/A.