The value of rainfall forecasts for rainfed rice production in the Philippines is estimated under the assumption that farmers adjust the quantities of fertilizer and labor if rainfall forecasts are available. Using a panel of 46 rice farmers in Tarlac, Philippines, a heteroskedastic production function with growing season rainfall (July to October) as one of the independent variables is estimated. The expected value of rainfall forecasts under the assumption of simultaneous adjustments in both fertilizer and labor was estimated to be slightly more than 1% of the net return from rice production. Taking the rainfed rice area in the Philippines of 1.2 million ha and a net return of $446/ha, the total value of the forecast was estimated to be $6.6 million per year. The expected value was also estimated under the assumption that, instead of forecasts of rainfall amounts for each year, forecasts made are for rainfall “above average”, “average”, or “below average”. The value of rainfall forecasts was found to be highest and ranged between 1.4%-4.5% of the net return when the forecast is ‘above average’. The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) could help farmers by investing more of its resource for the accurate prediction of ‘above average’ rainfall events.
KEYWORDS: The Philippines, rainfall, forecast, heteroskedastic, prediction.
JEL: N/A.

The study employs the Girton and Roper (1977) measure of exchange market pressure (defined as the sum of exchange rate depreciation and foreign reserves outflow), to examine the interaction between exchange market pressure and monetary variables, viz. domestic credit (Reserve Money) and the interest rate. Evidence from impulse response functions suggests that domestic credit has remained the dominant tool of monetary policy for managing exchange market pressure. The increase in domestic credit upon increases in exchange market pressure (during 1991-98) was imprudent. The results suggest that fiscal needs/growth objectives might have dominated external account considerations during this period. Post 9/11 there is evidence of sterilized intervention in the forex market. The interest rate has also weakly served as the tool of monetary policy during the hay days of foreign currency deposits (1991-98). The finding implies that, for the interest rate to work as tool of monetary policy vis-a-vis exchange market pressure, a reasonable degree of capital mobility is called for.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Exchange Market, Pressure, Monetary Policy, State Bank, SBP.
JEL: N/A.

In this paper we compare the performance of different GARCH models such as GARCH, EGARCH, GJR and APARCH models, to characterize and forecast financial time series volatility in Pakistan. The comparison is carried out by comparing symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models with normal and fat-tailed distributions for the innovations, over short and long forecast horizons. The forecasts are evaluated according to a set of statistical loss functions. Daily data on the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) 100 index are analyzed. The empirical results demonstrate that the use of asymmetry in the GARCH models and the assumption of fat-tail distributions for the innovations improve the volatility forecasts. Overall, EGARCH fits the best while the GJR model, with both normal and non-normal innovations, seems to provide superior forecasting ability over short and long horizons.
KEYWORDS: APARCH; EGARCH; Fat-tailed distribution; Forecast; Forecast horizon; GARCH; GJR; KSE 100; Volatility.
JEL: N/A.

Anwar, Mumtaz, The Political Economy of Foreign Aid to Pakistan, Nomos Verlagsgesellscharft, Baden-Baden, 2007, pp. 141, Price not mentioned. There are an increasing number of studies that analyze the discrepancies between the stated and the actual motives behind giving aid to developing economies. Given this divergence the subsequent effectiveness of aid is also questioned, paving way for debates on whether aid should be given at all. An analysis of the former question of motives is imperative to understand whether aid will have a positive impact on economies with weak institutions, political instability and economic decision-making backed by the need to preserve the status quo.
KEYWORDS: Book review, Pakistan, Political economy, foreign aid.
JEL: N/A.

The Lahore School’s Third Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy, in May 2007, reflected on the economic reforms that have been implemented since the 1990s and on the prospects for additional reforms in both the near and long-term. A number of respected economists and other experts provided evaluations of the government’s past efforts, and offered advice on the direction that future reform efforts should take. The Conference focused on a few key areas which included Governance Reforms, Industrial Competitiveness, Monetary, Fiscal and Financial Sector Policies, Exchange Rate and Trade Policies, and Female Labor Force Participation. The key findings of the papers were as follows:
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Lahore School, third, annual conference, Pakistan economy, management.
JEL: N/A.

Though government reforms are viewed as important for most developing countries, the rationale for these reforms must be clearly understood if they are to be correctly designed and implemented. From an international perspective, government reforms in Pakistan must be developed to integrate Pakistan into a larger global economy and should be based on the lessons learned from other developing countries. From the domestic perspective, reforms are necessary for the Pakistani government to adapt to the changing domestic environment. The reforms must focus broadly on the Federal, Provincial and District governments, on civil service reform and on business process re-engineering. This paper details the rationale for government reform in Pakistan, focuses on critical areas of reform, and provides a framework for the proposed reform approach.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, government reform, long term vision.
JEL: N/A.

Though Pakistan’s exports have increased significantly, analyses have shown that Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness is limited to a narrow range of products. This paper looks at the factors affecting Pakistan’s competitiveness ranking and relates these various factors to trends in Pakistan’s total factor productivity. In addition to looking at the components of Pakistan’s competitiveness ranking, this paper details the steps required for Pakistan to increase its global industrial competitiveness.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, industrial, competition, exports, strategy, competitiveness.
JEL: N/A.

The issue of global competitiveness is critical for developing countries. This paper looks at the drivers that influence industrial competitiveness and provides a comparison of these drivers for Pakistan, India and China. The analysis shows that Pakistan lags behind China and India in most of the main components of the industrial competitiveness index. The analysis also presents a series of micro and macro level policy recommendations aimed at increasing Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, global competitiveness, macro level policy, micro level policy.
JEL: N/A.

Though the Pakistani economy had recently achieved some level of macroeconomic stability, at present there are fears that this stability could be threatened. This paper looks at monetary and fiscal reforms over the last decade and focuses on the areas that need to be addressed on both fronts. In particular, the paper looks at how present monetary policy needs greater clarity and how fiscal policy needs to focus on raising public savings and diversifying the sources of borrowing.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, economy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroeconomic stability.
JEL: N/A.

The financial system of Pakistan has undergone a sea-change owing to reforms which were implemented over a period of a decade and a half, 1992-2006. The financial system has moved towards promoting the efficiency of financial intermediation while maintaining stability and fostering growth of the economy. Financial repression of the previous decades has receded though it has not been eliminated. Now a shift is warranted for the reform and restructuring of sectoral or sub-sectoral finance which has to be activity based, not institution based. Pakistan’s financial system has entered the post-reform era with all its potentials, complexities and challenges. How well the financial system performs in this era depends on how sustainable the financial regime is and how resilient it is in coping with change and financial shocks, both domestic and global.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, financial repression, restructuring, reforming, financial system.
JEL: N/A.