This study assesses the impact of external shocks and exchange rate movements on prices. The main benefit of this granular analysis is its ability to capture heterogeneous impacts across different products and geographical areas, which is often overlooked in macro-level studies. The model includes four global shocks: global inflation, US industrial production, global food inflation, and global oil prices. Regarding domestic factors, exchange rate, inflation expectations, and inflation persistence are considered. The dependent variables are prices, including 356 items from the Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI), 244 items from the Rural CPI, and 110 items from the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), all measured monthly. The results show that global food prices have the most significant influence on both national CPI and WPI inflation, while global oil prices have the least impact on consumer and wholesale inflation in Pakistan. Domestically, the exchange rate shows the highest pass-through effect on inflation, with inflation expectations and persistence having comparatively lower impacts.
KEYWORDS: Exchange Rate; Global Shocks; Oil Price Shocks; Inflation; Prices; Pass-Through.
JEL: E31, Q41.

Foreign aid has been an essential source of external financing for developing countries, with the belief that it can foster growth in recipient nations. Specifically, the type of aid known as Program Aid is particularly important because it provides the funds needed to implement a reform agenda in the target area or sector. However, the literature shows that the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth is complex, and empirical findings are inconclusive, necessitating further research in this area. In this context, the present study employed an innovative triangular conceptual modeling (TCM) approach to assess the effectiveness of program aid for Pakistan. The goal is to analyze effectiveness both directly, through the reform process, and indirectly, through financing development spending or fiscal deficit. Results show that program aid has a significantly positive impact on economic growth. However, this positive effect becomes negative once the effect of fiscal deficit is taken into account, suggesting that program aid is mainly used to finance fiscal deficits rather than to improve efficiency in the country. Additionally, the findings reveal that the indirect effect of program aid on economic growth is substantially larger than the direct effect. The greater indirect effects imply that the primary objective of program aid is to meet budgetary requirements or to finance the government’s development spending.
KEYWORDS: Program Aid, Economic Growth, Triangular Conceptual Modeling Technique, IMF.
JEL: F35, O19, O40, F33.

Pakistan provides export financing schemes to support exports. This study examines two main schemes: one offered by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) through commercial banks, and the other by the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR). The study evaluates the performance of these schemes from the perspectives of commercial banks (as private entities) and exporters (as beneficiaries). While large exporters improve their export performance by utilizing these schemes, the lengthy process and the time lag between production and delivery can hinder exporters’ performance. The qualitative findings indicate that these export financing schemes mainly benefit large exporting firms, while medium and small enterprises are less likely to take advantage of them due to the complexities involved.
KEYWORDS: Export Financing, Export Facilitation, Rebate, Commercial Banks, Exporting Firms.
JEL: E31, Q41.

Sustainable development in the Global South faces a complex challenge, influenced by environmental, economic, and social factors, as well as issues like poor governance, political instability, and inequality. The literature emphasizes that institutions are crucial in shaping incentives and behaviors that drive development. Inclusive institutions foster sustainability by providing equitable opportunities, safeguarding property rights, and encouraging innovation, whereas extractive institutions—marked by unequal systems and a lack of basic liberties— hinder progress. This research examines how economic and political institutions affect sustainable development in 94 developing countries from 1990 to 2019. Sustainable development, defined as the ecological efficiency of human development, is measured using the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) introduced by Hickel (2020). Economic institutions are measured using two indicators: economic freedom and de jure economic globalization, while political institutions are evaluated via de jure political globalization, judicial independence, democracy, and civil liberties. The empirical analysis shows that all indicators of inclusive institutions positively influence sustainable development in the Global South. Moreover, democracy proved to be the most effective in promoting sustainability, while the effect of de jure political globalization was the weakest in terms of magnitude (though still statistically significant). These findings underscore the vital role of inclusive institutions in achieving sustainability, highlighting their capacity to balance development goals with environmental considerations. This study demonstrates that democracy enhances sustainable development more than economic liberalization in the Global South, challenging conventional policy priorities.
KEYWORDS: Economic and Political Institutions, Sustainable Development, Economic Freedom, Civil Liberties.
JEL: E02, Q01, O43.

The study examines the impact of foreign direct investment, human capital, and financial development on labor productivity, utilizing data from 2000 to 2019 and panel data from 180 economies. The estimation technique used in the study is GMM, which helps to solve the problems of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The findings indicate that foreign direct investment, human capital, and financial development have a positive and significant relationship with labor productivity. The square term of human capital also shows a positive relationship with labor productivity, indicating increasing returns. This study contributes to the literature by examining the roles of structural and financial factors using robust techniques. Furthermore, the study’s results offer important policy recommendations, suggesting that the government should invest in projects to develop education and financial infrastructure to achieve high productivity gains.
KEYWORDS: Foreign Direct Investment, Human Capital, Financial Development, Labor Productivity, Trade Openness, System GMM.
JEL: E02, Q01, O43.

This study contributes to the literature that highlights the penalties of education-occupation mismatch in terms of earnings across different employment statuses. Most existing literature analyzing the education-occupation mismatch has focused on paid employees, overlooking self-employed individuals, and has not controlled for sample selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity bias simultaneously. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the impact of education mismatch on earnings across different employment statuses after correcting for both sample selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity bias. To achieve this objective, we applied the methodology of Duncan and Hoffman (1981) to the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM), 2019-20. Our results show that after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity bias and sample selection bias, overeducation has no positive value for both paid employees and the self-employed. The returns from overeducation based on the OLS model might be overestimated if overeducated workers possess lower average ability levels, whereas the returns of adequately educated individuals increase after correcting for the bias and are significantly higher for self-employed individuals compared to paid employees.
KEYWORDS: Education mismatch, earnings, labor market, sample selection bias, unobserved heterogeneity bias..
JEL: E20, I20.

This study evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation in Pakistan. Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2022, the study finds that the policy rate is either an ineffective or counterproductive instrument, while the monetary base serves as an effective tool for controlling inflation. Significant evidence is found against the view that monetary policy is ineffective in controlling inflation in the presence of inflationary cost-push shocks. The study also finds that the effectiveness of monetary policy is asymmetric in combating inflation during inflationary and anti-inflationary oil price shocks. Despite these observations, the study recommends a cautious approach based on additional research involving diverse tools and experimentation with a gradual mixing of instruments.
KEYWORDS: Monetary policy, effectiveness.
JEL: E52, E58.

The study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows on Pakistan's macroeconomic framework, emphasizing improved capital efficiency and technological advancements. Utilizing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model within the GTAP framework, it evaluates the effects of technology-driven FDI on key sectors, including manufacturing, exports, and demandoriented industries. Key findings indicate that priority sectors such as food and beverages, light manufacturing, and heavy manufacturing experience the highest GDP growth from FDI-induced technological upgrades. Sectors like light manufacturing, metals, textiles, and heavy manufacturing demonstrate significant export increases and reduced reliance on imports. Conversely, demand-oriented sectors such as communication and retail trade drive higher imports. Manufacturing and exportoriented sectors help reduce the trade deficit, while retail trade, communication, and financial services contribute to its increase. The study concludes that attracting FDI to manufacturing and export-driven sectors is crucial. However, foreign investors tend to focus on market-seeking sectors. To encourage efficiency-seeking FDI in productive sectors, the government should enhance the business environment, lower costs, deregulate, and ensure a level playing field.
KEYWORDS: Efficiency-seeking FDI, general equilibrium, market-seeking FDI..
JEL: C32, E31, E43, Q31, Q43.

Productivity growth has remained slow in Asian countries. The study examines the impact of digitalization and innovation on output productivity in four Asian countries: China, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, using data from 1990 to 2022. The panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was employed to investigate the long-run relationship between the variables. The study implements the Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) method for robustness checks. The long-run results show that digitalization and innovation have a positive and significant impact on productivity in each country. Human capital, foreign direct investment (FDI), and trade openness also have a significant impact on productivity. The panel ARDL result shows that digitalization, innovation, human capital, trade openness, and FDI significantly affect productivity in the long run. The study recommends encouraging investments in digital infrastructure, inventions, and innovations across various economic sectors, including R&D activities, fostering industry-academia collaborations, and technological advancements. These countries should also invest in education, technical, and vocational training to improve labor productivity and efficiency.
KEYWORDS: Productivity, innovation, digitalization, human capital, FDI, panel ARDL..
JEL: 03, 04, C23, O53.

This study investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on inflation in Pakistan, focusing specifically on asymmetric effects. Employing the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, it examines how oil price increases and decreases influence inflation differently. Using secondary annual data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and the State Bank of Pakistan, the study considers the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the dependent variable, while independent variables include domestic oil prices (LOP), exchange rate (LEXH), interest rate (LINTR), and unemployment rate (LUNEMP). The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test assesses stationarity, revealing mixed integration orders (I(0) and I(1)), which justifies the application of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to explore both long-run and short-run relationships. The ARDL bounds test confirms the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. Results indicate that oil prices significantly affect inflation, with past oil prices exhibiting a persistent impact. The NARDL model highlights asymmetry, showing that oil price increases (LOP_POS) exert a stronger positive effect on inflation than decreases (LOP_NEG). Exchange rate fluctuations display mixed effects, with lagged depreciation negatively influencing inflation, while interest rates and unemployment rates do not demonstrate statistically significant longrun effects. Diagnostic tests, including normality, serial correlation (Breusch-Godfrey LM test), and heteroskedasticity (Harvey, White, and Glejser tests), confirm the model's validity. These findings offer key insights for policymakers, underscoring the necessity of targeted interventions in response to oil price shocks. Given the asymmetric effects, monetary authorities should implement differentiated strategies for oil price increases and decreases to manage inflation effectively. Additionally, exchange rate stability plays a crucial role in mitigating inflationary pressures. Future research may expand on this study by incorporating additional macroeconomic variables or employing alternative econometric approaches to enhance inflation modeling in developing economies like Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Oil prices, Inflation, ARDL model Asymmetric effects, NARDL model, Exchange rate, Interest rate, Unemployment, Pakistan economy, monetary policy..
JEL: 03, 04, C23, O53.