This study evaluates the ability of the Fama and French Three Factor model to explain a cross section of stock returns in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). Following Fama and French factor approach, we sorted six portfolios by size and book to market. The sorted portfolios were constituted to represent stocks from each and every sector of KSE. Using Daily returns from January 2003 to December 2007, the excess returns for each portfolio were regressed on market, size and value factors. Our findings, in general, supported the notion of the three factor model. The three factor model was able to explain the variations in returns for most of the portfolios and the results remain robust when the sample was reduced to control for the size effect. Our findings are consistent with most of the studies that suggested the validity of the three factor model in emerging markets. These results warrant for the inclusion of size and value factors for valuation, capital budgeting and project appraisals, thus, having substantial implications for fund managers, analysts and investors.
KEYWORDS: Size Premium, Value Premium, Market Premium, Three-Factor Model.
JEL: G11, G12, G14.

This study attempts to discern the relationship between economic and financial development in Pakistan for the period 1973 - 2006. Vector error-correction modeling is used to identify the causality between economic and financial development and the exogeneity of the variable(s) in the model. These error correction terms have been derived from Johansen’s multivariate cointegrating procedure. Results indicate that, in the long run, economic development causes financial development. Furthermore, the real output variable is found to be exogenous. Thus, financial development is seen to be ineffective in terms of economic development determination in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Economic Development, Financial Development, Causality.
JEL: O16, C59.

This study seeks to determine the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (EG), using annual data from 1971 to 2007. In our empirical analysis, we implement a bounds-testing approach to co-integration and an augmented form of the Granger causality test to identify the direction of the relationship between these variables both in the short and long run. Our findings suggest bidirectional causality between EG and EC in the short run; in the long run we find unidirectional causality from EG to EC. EC does not lead to EG in the long run because higher energy prices (oil prices) increase the cost of business, leading to a negative effect on EG. Additionally, when energy prices fluctuate, they create uncertainty that also affects economic growth. The study recommends direct investment in local energy resources.
KEYWORDS: Asset pricing, CAPM, financial literature, review.
JEL: N/A.

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between intellectual capital efficiency and the firm's profitability. The importance of intellectual capital (IC) and the related philosophy of the knowledge economy have captured the attention of researchers and business enterprises in the World Trade Organization (WTO) era. IC is widely recognized as a tool that is critical to running a successful business in a highly competitive environment. Various models have been introduced to measure the numerous facets of IC, including the Skandia navigator, Tobin's Q, and value added intellectual coefficient (VAIC). This article examines the role of IC efficiency in the firm’s net profit using the VAIC developed by Ante Pulic (1998). It also investigates its correlation with the firm’s profitability, using regression models. A five-year data set for Lahore Stock Exchange Index companies (LSE-25) was obtained from audited financial reports, and used to calculate human capital, structural capital, and capital-employed efficiency of companies in different industrial sectors. The results obtained using multiple regression analysis supports the argument that IC efficiency contributes significantly to the firm's profitability. Practically, IC efficiency can be used as a benchmark and strategic indicator to direct financial and intellectual resources in the right direction, i.e., to enhance the firm’s ultimate corporate value. It can also be developed as a management tool to create a sustainable comparative advantage in the competitive global knowledge economy. The study is a pioneering attempt to measure the impact of IC efficiency on net profit using cross sectional time series data.
KEYWORDS: Knowledge Economy, Intellectual Capital, Value Added, VAIC, LSE-25.
JEL: C22, C59.

The available evidence in Pakistan suggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper examines the relationship between the determinants of inflation and its volatility by using monthly data for 1990:M1-2007:M5. The determinants of inflation are estimated by a VAR analysis, which shows that inflation, the interest rate and money supply move together. A VAR model assumes constant error variance. We relaxed this assumption by employing an ARCH/GARCH model and conclude that inflation is volatile in nature. For measuring the qualitative nature of the inflationary process we used an EGARCH model. It confirms that the time effect model is significant. It also suggests that in the first four months of the calendar year, the inflationary shock is negative and it can, therefore, hamper growth.
KEYWORDS: Inflation, Volatility, Pakistan, Money Supply, Interest Rate.
JEL: E31, E51, C01.

Greif, Avner, Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade. Cambridge University Press, 2008, pp. 452, Price £19.99. In a comparative study of the late medieval European and Muslim worlds, Greif analyzes the effect of institutions—especially those that facilitated impersonal exchange, such as trade—on the performance of modern economies. His argument rests on the premise that past institutions have an effect on consequent ones, and he contributes the disparity in performance of the Muslim and European economies to their distinct institutional trajectories. The book comprises several parts. It defines institutions in great detail; provides a comparative account of institutions in the medieval European and Muslim worlds; and applies a theoretical, analytical, and empirical framework—particularly game theory—to studying institutions.
KEYWORDS: Modern Economy, European and Muslim worlds, theoretical, analytical, empirical framework.
JEL: N/A.

In April 2008, the Centre for Research in Economics and Business (CREB) at the Lahore School of Economics hosted the Fourth Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy on the theme, “Ensuring Stable and Inclusive Growth.” The Centre’s director, Naved Hamid, invited a number of prominent speakers including academics, economists, current and former government officials, and other experts to present a combination of research and policy papers, which can be broadly grouped under two major headings: i) Pakistan’s macroeconomy and ii) Poverty and inequality in Pakistan. These topics were selected because of their timeliness, given the increasing macroeconomic pressures facing the country, in particular those coming from the exchange rate and inflation, and the impacts on poverty that could result. The papers presented at the conference are summarized below:
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, CREB, Lahore School, fourth, annual conference, Pakistan Economy, inclusive growth.
JEL: N/A.

The article provides an overview of the Pakistani economy and addresses various sectoral issues currently being faced by the economy. The first and the most critical problem highlighted concerns the protection of the poor. Other issues highlighted relate to education, healthcare, housing, taxation and energy. This paper discusses how the current account deficit needs to be tackled by higher tariffs, exchange rate adjustments, and possible export duties. The paper also discusses the need to reduce the cost of production for industry and upgrade governance through an emphasis on the local government system. Regarding public sector investments, the paper explains how the government needs to be transparent about the Public Sector Development Programme, and allow projects to be executed by the provinces.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Balance of Payments, Fiscal Deficit, Education, Health, Poverty, Public Investment.
JEL: I32, D33.

As a result of policy inaction in addressing structural issues over a protracted period and a wrong set of economic priorities followed over the past several years, Pakistan’s economy faces a grave set of challenges. Among the many issues, which range from high inflation to power deficits and water stress, the most immediate and pressing is the need to restore fiscal order. While pressure on the coalition government to reduce the economic hardship of the electorate is understandably intense, the policy response needs to balance the alleviation of palpable hardship in the short term, with the ability to provide sustained benefits over the longer term. Given the sharp constriction in available fiscal space, adopting a policy course in the short run that raises expectations of “relief” may not be wise, in either political or economic terms. In the longer term, however, it is a misconception to view the available choices in purely binary terms, i.e. that “macroeconomic stability” (a much-maligned term, loath to politicians not just in Pakistan) is mutually exclusive to “pro-poor” agendas. Raising revenues by broadening the tax base meaningfully, in conjunction with rationalizing bloated government/public sector expenditures can free fiscal resources, which can be diverted to targeted subsidy programs. Ignoring macroeconomic stability, on the other hand, will eventually also undermine the ability of the government to influence economic growth, as growing fiscal and monetary constraints limit its ability to run appropriate policies. As experienced in the 1990s, this will slowdown both investment as well as growth, hurting the poor.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Macroeconomic Stability, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy.
JEL: E62, E52.

Public policy is aimed at increasing the efficiency of the industrial sector in Pakistan. This paper looks at four issues. Firstly, it looks at the adjustments the new government needs to make to restore macroeconomic balance. Secondly, it discusses the global changes that have occurred in the industrial sector and how these could be incorporated into Pakistani policy making. Thirdly, I have briefly discussed the history of policies implemented in Pakistan. Lastly, I have discussed the importance of decentralized industrial policy making. This paper also conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of industrialization on poverty. It is concluded that industrial development in Pakistan has historically been heavily dependent on government intervention and there was poor growth in this sector as compared to other Asian economies. The paper also presents five proposals aimed at achieving higher growth in the industrial sector.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Public Policy, Industry, Competitiveness, Poverty.
JEL: F44, D33, H32, L12, L13.