This paper gives a brief overview of Pakistan’s economic growth over the past decades and critically examines the economic policies of the last government. It draws attention to the unchecked state dominance across all sectors of the economy and emphasizes the need for further privatization. The paper concludes with some suggestions on the way forward towards growth and economic prosperity.
KEYWORDS: Privatization, Economic Policy, Economic Growth.
JEL: O43, L33, Q58.

The objective of this paper is to set out the key components of a development strategy for Pakistan. A fundamental premise of our analysis is that the world economic environment is changing dramatically and a development strategy today must position itself to take advantage of the changes taking place. The paper is divided into five sections: First, we provide a brief review of Pakistan’s experience with development strategies so far. Next, we discuss the changes that have occurred, or are taking place in the global economy, which have strategic relevance for Pakistan. In the third section we look at the current situation in Pakistan with regard to the potential drivers of growth, based on the earlier discussion of the global developments. In the final section key elements of an alternative development strategy for Pakistan are outlined.
KEYWORDS: Development Strategy, Growth, Globalization.
JEL: O40, O20, O11.

This paper explores the past 50 years of data on inflation, growth rates of money and real GDP. It is found that inflation is primarily a monetary phenomena; however, the quantity theory of money does not hold in Pakistan below money supply growth rates of 9 percent. A simple monetary rule is also derived by inspecting the maximum probabilities of keeping inflation low (at most 6 percent); this rule is simply to keep money growth rates below 12 percent. This paper also finds that food inflation too is a monetary phenomena and there is no trade-off between inflation and growth, which are independent in the sense of probability measures. The findings are confirmed by the application of Fisher’s Exact Test. The policy implication is that monetary policy should be pursued independently of growth policies of government.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Inflation, Monetary Policy.
JEL: E52, E41.

Pakistan has seen strong economic growth in recent years accompanied by a reduction in poverty. However, growth has been concentrated, which has meant that regional and inter-personal disparities are on the rise. In a contestable political environment, this casts a shadow on the sustainability of high growth. The budget, a corrective instrument, has been subject to boom and bust cycles because of rigid claims, poor tax effort and external shocks, rendering it ineffective in addressing long term priorities. This paper argues that robust budgets for sustained and inclusive growth require government programs to be credible (monitoring and evaluation and public information) and cost effective (streamlined budget cycle, public-private partnerships); this will help increase citizen willingness to pay for public programs via improved tax compliance.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Budget, Growth.
JEL: E22, O43, E23.

The dramatic increase in international food and fuel prices in recent times is a crucial issue for developing countries and the most vulnerable to these price shocks are the poorest segments of society. In countries like Pakistan, the discussion has focused on the impact of substantially higher food and fuel prices on poverty. This paper used PSLM and MICS household level data to analyze the impact of higher food and energy prices on the poverty head count and the poverty gap ratio in Pakistan. Simulated food and energy price shocks present some important results: First, the impact of food price increases on Pakistani poverty levels is substantially greater than the impact of energy price increases. Second, the impact of food price inflation on Pakistani poverty levels is significantly higher for rural populations as compared to urban populations. Finally, food price inflation can lead to significant increases in Pakistani poverty levels: For Pakistan as a whole, a 20% increase in food prices would lead to an 8% increase in the poverty head count.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Poverty, Inflation, Household Budget, Food, Fuel.
JEL: D33, R21, E3.

The main focus of this study is Rural Punjab and it contributes to regional poverty research in two ways; first, using a more recent household survey data, carried out in August 2007 by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE), it provides fresh poverty estimates for the rural areas of the Punjab. Second, the poverty differential across the agroclimatic zones of Punjab have been explained by urbanization, overseas migration and the labor market structure operating in these zones. This study shows four major factors that explain inequalities in poverty levels. First, the rural areas of two zones, barani and rice/wheat, are well integrated with urban settings. This integration has allowed their rural populations to work in the industrial sector of Central Punjab and the services sector in North Punjab primarily Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Second, the belt from Lahore to Attock in the Punjab has benefited the most from overseas migration. The flow of remittances has helped in reducing poverty levels. Third, the cotton/wheat and low intensity zone still largely depend for employment on the agricultural sector while this dependency is very low in the barani zone, which has good opportunity to seek job opportunities for its labor force in the armed services and government departments. Finally, demographic and social factors including education are less favorable in the cotton/wheat and low intensity zones which negatively impacts on a breakthrough in poverty reduction.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Poverty, Migration, Labor Market.
JEL: D33, J20, J61.

The article is the first comprehensive attempt at estimating the variation in the incidence, intensity and severity of poverty in the Punjab at the level of sub-provincial regions and districts. This estimation has been made possible because of the availability of the Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey (2003-04), which has a sample that is representative at the district-level. Estimates suggest the existence of a high poverty enclave in the south and the west regions of the Punjab. The incidence and severity of poverty in a majority of districts in this enclave, with a few exceptions, is extremely high with one out of every two households being poor on average. The high levels of poverty in this enclave contrast with the relatively low poverty in the more urbanized north, where households are well integrated into the national and international labor market. The paper also argues that there is tremendous variation in the poverty experience of the districts in the centre. Poverty incidence in the more urbanized and industrialized northern districts of the centre contrasts sharply with the experience of Kasur, Okara and Pakpattan, where the incidence and severity of poverty is extremely high. Finally, we find that in nine districts rural households do much worse in terms of poverty incidence than their urban counterparts. The gap between urban and rural poverty incidence and severity is highest within the district of Lahore suggesting that urbanization co-exists with a large poor population that inhabits the periurban areas of the district. An important aim of development policy and poverty targeting is to bridge these multi-faceted divides in the geography of poverty.
KEYWORDS: Poverty, Pakistan.
JEL: I32, D33.

The structural transformation of Pakistan’s economy has not been accompanied by a concomitant decline in the proportion of labor employed in agriculture. While this transformation has resulted in a non-farm sector that is large and growing it has not lead to the rapid absorption of the pool of relatively low productivity labor away from the agriculture sector, as predicted by conventional development theory embodied in the models of the 1960s. Despite the obvious importance of the role of a vibrant rural non-farm economy (RNFE), and in particular, a vibrant non-farm services sector to address the challenges of poverty, food security, agricultural growth and rural development, this sector has received inadequate attention in the debate in Pakistan. Based on a review of literature and data from two large surveys – the Rural Investment Climate Survey of Pakistan 2005 and the Surveys of Domestic Commerce 2007 – this paper attempts to analyze the factors underlying the low level of development of the rural non farm economy and the potential role it can play in Pakistan’s economic development.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Poverty, Rural, Development.
JEL: R23, R11.

Periodic research and documentation of the extent and nature of inter-regional and intra-regional inequalities is a pre-requisite for formulating cost effective interventions for the promotion of spatially balanced and sustainable development. These interventions can be in the shape of increased fiscal resource transfers and/or fiscal incentives to the private sector for promoting investments in lagging regions. The analysis of inter-regional and intra-regional consumption and non-consumption inequalities in this paper are a preliminary attempt at assessing their status.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Inequality, Consumption, Social Indicator.
JEL: D31, E21.

This paper investigates the relationship between human capital and economic growth in Pakistan with aggregate time series data. Estimated with the Johansen (1991) approach, the fitted model indicates a critical role for human capital in boosting the economy’s capacity to absorb world technical progress. Much higher returns, including spillovers, to secondary schooling in Pakistan than in OECD economies is consistent with very substantial education under-investment in Pakistan. Similarly, extremely large returns to health spending compare very favorably with industrial investment. Human capital is estimated to have accounted for just under one-fifth of the increase in Pakistan’s GDP per head. Since the 1990s, the impact of deficient human capital policies is shown by the negative contribution to economic growth.
KEYWORDS: Human Capital, Economic Growth, Cointegration, Pakistan.
JEL: O53.