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Impact of External Shocks and Exchange Rate Movements on Retail and Wholesale Prices in Pakistan: A Granular Level Analysis
Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari, Umar Mashhood and Waqas Ahmed
Published:Jan-June, 2025
This study assesses the impact of external shocks and exchange rate movements
on prices. The main benefit of this granular analysis is its ability to capture heterogeneous
impacts across different products and geographical areas, which is often overlooked in
macro-level studies. The model includes four global shocks: global inflation, US industrial
production, global food inflation, and global oil prices. Regarding domestic factors,
exchange rate, inflation expectations, and inflation persistence are considered. The
dependent variables are prices, including 356 items from the Urban Consumer Price Index
(CPI), 244 items from the Rural CPI, and 110 items from the Wholesale Price Index (WPI),
all measured monthly. The results show that global food prices have the most significant
influence on both national CPI and WPI inflation, while global oil prices have the least
impact on consumer and wholesale inflation in Pakistan. Domestically, the exchange rate
shows the highest pass-through effect on inflation, with inflation expectations and
persistence having comparatively lower impacts.
KEYWORDS:
Exchange Rate; Global Shocks; Oil Price Shocks; Inflation; Prices; Pass-Through.
JEL:
E31, Q41.
Effectiveness of Program Aid in Pakistan: A Triangular Conceptual Modeling Approach
Muhammad Arshad, Sana Hameed Pasha and Naeem Akram
Published:Jan-June, 2025
Foreign aid has been an essential source of external financing for developing
countries, with the belief that it can foster growth in recipient nations. Specifically, the type
of aid known as Program Aid is particularly important because it provides the funds needed
to implement a reform agenda in the target area or sector. However, the literature shows
that the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth is complex, and empirical
findings are inconclusive, necessitating further research in this area. In this context, the
present study employed an innovative triangular conceptual modeling (TCM) approach to
assess the effectiveness of program aid for Pakistan. The goal is to analyze effectiveness both
directly, through the reform process, and indirectly, through financing development
spending or fiscal deficit. Results show that program aid has a significantly positive impact
on economic growth. However, this positive effect becomes negative once the effect of fiscal
deficit is taken into account, suggesting that program aid is mainly used to finance fiscal
deficits rather than to improve efficiency in the country. Additionally, the findings reveal
that the indirect effect of program aid on economic growth is substantially larger than the
direct effect. The greater indirect effects imply that the primary objective of program aid is
to meet budgetary requirements or to finance the government’s development spending.
KEYWORDS:
Program Aid, Economic Growth, Triangular Conceptual Modeling Technique, IMF.
JEL:
F35, O19, O40, F33.
Impact of Export Facilitation on Pakistan’s Export Performance
Uzma Zia and Fozia Tabussom
Published:Jan-June, 2025
Pakistan provides export financing schemes to support exports. This study
examines two main schemes: one offered by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) through
commercial banks, and the other by the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR). The study
evaluates the performance of these schemes from the perspectives of commercial banks (as
private entities) and exporters (as beneficiaries). While large exporters improve their export
performance by utilizing these schemes, the lengthy process and the time lag between
production and delivery can hinder exporters’ performance. The qualitative findings
indicate that these export financing schemes mainly benefit large exporting firms, while
medium and small enterprises are less likely to take advantage of them due to the
complexities involved.
KEYWORDS:
Export Financing, Export Facilitation, Rebate, Commercial Banks, Exporting Firms.
JEL:
E31, Q41.
Inclusive Institutions and Sustainable Development: Applying Acemoglu and Robinson’s Framework to the Global South
Kainat Yaqoob, Zainab Jehan and Sadia Sherbaz
Published:Jan-June, 2025
Sustainable development in the Global South faces a complex challenge, influenced
by environmental, economic, and social factors, as well as issues like poor governance, political
instability, and inequality. The literature emphasizes that institutions are crucial in shaping
incentives and behaviors that drive development. Inclusive institutions foster sustainability by
providing equitable opportunities, safeguarding property rights, and encouraging innovation,
whereas extractive institutions—marked by unequal systems and a lack of basic liberties—
hinder progress. This research examines how economic and political institutions affect
sustainable development in 94 developing countries from 1990 to 2019. Sustainable
development, defined as the ecological efficiency of human development, is measured using
the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) introduced by Hickel (2020). Economic institutions
are measured using two indicators: economic freedom and de jure economic globalization,
while political institutions are evaluated via de jure political globalization, judicial
independence, democracy, and civil liberties. The empirical analysis shows that all indicators
of inclusive institutions positively influence sustainable development in the Global South.
Moreover, democracy proved to be the most effective in promoting sustainability, while the
effect of de jure political globalization was the weakest in terms of magnitude (though still
statistically significant). These findings underscore the vital role of inclusive institutions in
achieving sustainability, highlighting their capacity to balance development goals with
environmental considerations. This study demonstrates that democracy enhances sustainable
development more than economic liberalization in the Global South, challenging conventional
policy priorities.
KEYWORDS:
Economic and Political Institutions, Sustainable Development, Economic Freedom, Civil Liberties.
JEL:
E02, Q01, O43.
Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development, Human Capital and Labor Productivity: A Global Perspective
Sundus Javed
Published:Jan-June, 2025
The study examines the impact of foreign direct investment, human capital, and
financial development on labor productivity, utilizing data from 2000 to 2019 and panel data
from 180 economies. The estimation technique used in the study is GMM, which helps to solve
the problems of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The findings indicate that foreign
direct investment, human capital, and financial development have a positive and significant
relationship with labor productivity. The square term of human capital also shows a positive
relationship with labor productivity, indicating increasing returns. This study contributes to
the literature by examining the roles of structural and financial factors using robust techniques.
Furthermore, the study’s results offer important policy recommendations, suggesting that the
government should invest in projects to develop education and financial infrastructure to
achieve high productivity gains.
KEYWORDS:
Foreign Direct Investment, Human Capital, Financial Development, Labor Productivity, Trade Openness, System GMM.
JEL:
E02, Q01, O43.