This paper examines the circular debt problem in the Pakistani energy sector. After presenting the profile of the energy sector in Pakistan, the paper explains why circular debt has emerged in the sector. Two principal reasons are discussed for the circular debt problem: First, consumer tariffs were insufficient to recover the rising costs of power generation and the government (due to fiscal constraints) was not compensating PEPCO for the resulting losses. Second, PEPCO has faced significant problems in recovering dues from consumers. In order to resolve the circular debt problem, sharp adjustments in power tariffs may be required combined with the need by the government to explicitly recognize the costs of power subsidies in the budget.
KEYWORDS: Circular debt, energy, tariff, subsidy, Pakistan.
JEL: Q43, H62, Q48.

This paper looks at the economy-wide demand and the firm level demand for electricity in Pakistan. The economy wide estimation of electricity demand uses panel data from 63 countries from 1998-2008, and finds that the elasticity of demand for electricity with respect to per capita income is approximately 0.69, which implies that a 1% increase in per capita income will lead to a 0.69% increase in the demand for electricity. The firm level analysis uses firm level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey for Pakistan and finds that the price elasticity of demand for electricity across all firms is approximately -0.57, which implies that a 1% increase in electricity prices will lead to a 0.57% decrease in electricity demand across firms. Across sectors, the textile sector has the highest price elasticity of demand (-0.81) while the price elasticity of demand for firms in the electricity and electronics sector is the smallest (-0.31). Finally, firm level data is also used to estimate production functions in order to estimate the impact of electricity shortages on manufacturing output.
KEYWORDS: Electricity, demand, industrial, price elasticity, Pakistan.
JEL: Q41, E01, E39.

In this paper, we aim to understand residential electricity demand responses to changes in income, in order to assist policymakers in managing demand for electricity and evaluating tariff increases associated with proposed projects for increasing supply, while minimizing the impact on poverty.
KEYWORDS: Electricity, demand, residential, Pakistan.
JEL: Q41, D12, E39.

This paper discusses the efforts by the Government of Pakistan to implement a General Sales Tax (GST). First, a history of Pakistani tax reform efforts is presented along with the reforms recommended by the National Taxation Reforms Commission. After this, the design and implementation of the GST is discussed followed by an analysis of the political economy and provincial issues that arise in the process of implementing the GST. Finally, the paper discusses various proposals regarding the determination of the base for the GST. The paper concludes that the splitting of the GST by sectors, given the perspective that the 1930’s style sales tax, is not sensible, and the Pakistani formulation is more unstable than the assignment of the GST on goods.
KEYWORDS: Tax, reforms, GST, Pakistan.
JEL: H29.

This paper explores how Pakistan can get out of the low-tax-to-GDP trap and come close to achieving its revenue targets. Examining the trend factors influencing the trend in total and individual tax-to-GDP ratios over a period of twenty years, the paper concludes that partially successful and/or inappropriate tax reforms have put Pakistan in this trap. While highlighting that a period of economic slowdown may not be the best time to make a big push on resource mobilization, the paper presents a strategy which aims at not only enhancing tax revenues but also making the taxation structure more progressive, broad based and balanced.
KEYWORDS: Tax, structure, reform, Pakistan.
JEL: H71, H2.

This paper looks at the Indus Basin Water Strategy for Pakistan. It begins with a historical overview of the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), the Indus Basin Replacement Works (1960-1980) and the Indus Basin Salinity Control Efforts (1960-2000). The paper then looks at the IBIS irrigation and salinity control investments that have taken place over the last decade (2000-2010). The paper goes on to look at the present situation of the IBIS as well as discuss an IBIS strategy for the next decade. Finally, the paper discusses supply side and demand management strategies for IBIS. Overall, the paper concludes that Pakistan should focus on (1) Creating Additional Surface Storage, (2) Preserving surface water (particularly through lining canals), (3) Controlling Groundwater and controlling salinity (by discouraging excessive tube-well use), (4) Encouraging general efficiency of irrigation water use (through improved land management techniques), (5) Enhancing yields through improved farming practices, and (6) Fully meeting the environmental concerns of the Indus Delta, river systems and wetlands.
KEYWORDS: Indus Basin, water, strategy, irrigation, Pakistan.
JEL: Q25, Q15.

This article is an attempt to examine the short and long-run relationship between the trade balance, income, money supply, and real exchange rate in the case of Pakistan’s economy. Income and money variables are included in the model in order to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments, while the real exchange rate is used to evaluate the conventional approach of elasticities (Marshall Lerner condition). The bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is applied to annual data for the period 1970 to 2005 in order to investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the trade balance and its determinants. Additionally, variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response functions (IRFs) are used to draw further inferences. The result of the bounds test indicates that there is a stable long-run relationship between the trade balance and income, money supply, and exchange rate variables. The estimated results show that exchange rate depreciation is positively related to the trade balance in the long and short run, consistent with the Marshall Lerner condition. The results provide strong evidence that money supply and income play a strong role in determining the behavior of the trade balance. The exchange rate regime can help improve the trade balance but will have a weaker influence than growth and monetary policy.
KEYWORDS: Trade balance, ARDL, exchange rate, money supply, Pakistan.
JEL: C22, F10, F12, C15.

Using an international dataset on bilateral trade for 137 countries in 2005, we estimate a gravity model to address the question of whether intra-Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) trade is too low and whether the scale of trade at present is accounted for by regional integration or unilateral liberalization. The results of the gravity model confirm that intra-regional trade is lower than predicted by the gravity equation. The results also validates the theory that the present level of trade is attributed to regional agreements rather than unilateral liberalization, suggesting greater scope for regional cooperation among ECO member countries.
KEYWORDS: Bilateral trade, economic cooperation organization, regionalism.
JEL: P45, N70.

This paper studies the impact of changes in the external balance of Pakistan. We explain why the economic growth achieved during the past decade was highly dependent on improvements in the external balance. Between 2001 and 2007, Pakistan benefited from an increase in remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. After 2007, this performance came under pressure from external price shocks. The rise in the import prices of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential to reduce the country’s growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and threatening the gains achieved during past years. We integrate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a microsimulation model to study the effects of changes in foreign savings and import prices faced by Pakistan. An increase in foreign savings leads to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. The main sectors facing a decline in exports are textiles, leather, cement, and livestock. In this simulation food and oil prices decline and the factors of production that gain are agricultural wage labor and nonagricultural unskilled wage labor. The increase in import prices of petroleum or industrial raw material leads to a reduction in exports. In this simulation the crop sector is negatively impacted and returns to land and profits to farm owners increase, showing a change in favor of agricultural asset owners, while poverty and inequality increase.
KEYWORDS: Microsimulation, computable general equilibrium, poverty, inequality, balance of payments, Pakistan.
JEL: I32, C51, C81, D58, C82, H22.

A simultaneous-equations model was used to capture the supply and demand functions for Pakistan’s wheat sector at the national level. This model reflects the fact that Pakistan’s domestic wheat supply is priceresponsive and positively affected by the use of nutrient fertilizers. While price appears to be a statistically significant factor on the supply side, it is statistically insignificant on the demand side. Population size appears to be very significant in determining wheat demand. The wheat import supply seems to be influenced by the current world wheat price, current world wheat supplies, Pakistan’s domestic consumption in previous years, and domestic supply in previous years. We recommend that policymakers allow market forces to play a role in the wheat economy in a way that protects producers from adverse market conditions. The availability of various nutrient fertilizers should be central to policies on future inputs use. Work is also needed on wheat alternatives so that the country’s dependence on wheat is eased as much as possible.
KEYWORDS: Wheat, supply and demand, Pakistan.
JEL: Q11, C59.