Compared to the historical and even contemporary experience of India, Pakistan has long been regarded as a “dependent” economy. Gross domestic product growth in Pakistan is typically argued to be contingent on external factors: trade, financial flows, and the interdependence of asset markets. Beyond the rhetoric, there is only ambiguous and contradictory empirical evidence to support this view. This paper offers a new methodology, that of case studies of growth and stagnation, to test the hypothesis of dependency. The results show that growth in Pakistan is influenced by external factors, but that growth is driven primarily by the dynamics of the domestic economy.
KEYWORDS: Economic Growth, Dependency, Crisis, Pakistan.
JEL: O16, F43.

Pakistan embarked on the liberalization of its capital account more than two decades ago. Today, it is an economy with a capital account that is, by and large, free of restrictions, and a convertible currency. However, its actual integration into the global economy in comparison to other emerging market economies has remained rather limited. The opening of a capital account appeared to have improved the country’s access to private foreign capital, but because of domestic security and economic and political concerns, the inflow of private capital has fallen in recent years. Although capital outflows were not a major cause for the decline in foreign exchange reserves during Pakistan’s economic crisis of 2008, the open capital account and rupee convertibility have made it more vulnerable to outside shocks. This article identifies three areas where policymakers in Pakistan face serious challenges, i.e., macroeconomic management; controlling tax evasion, which the Pakistani rupee’s convertibility has made easier; and minimizing the real cost of portfolio investment to the country. The article offers ideas on how these challenges could be met.
KEYWORDS: Capital Account, Covertibilty, Pakistan.
JEL: G11, O16, E22, H26.

This paper discusses how poor debt management combined with the policies of donor agencies (particularly the IMF) have brought on the present domestic and foreign debt crises. The paper presents a qualitative account of the debt in Pakistan and then analyzes the debt data using various debt burden indicators. After the analysis of the economic and social costs of debt overhang in Pakistan, it is found that net foreign resource flows to the private and public sectors tended to crowd out private and public savings respectively and that public savings is crowded out by resource flows from the private sector to the public sector. Finally, the results of the paper find that the resource allocation between development and non‐development expenditure did not depend on whether government expenditure was financed by revenues or government borrowing and that more resources are directed towards development activity when government expenditure is financed by foreign resource flows rather than domestic resource flows.
KEYWORDS: Debt Burden, Savings, Development Expenditure, Pakistan.
JEL: H63, H68.

This article examines how better discipline can be brought to fiscal policy, first, through enhanced institutional checks and balances, and second, through better market discipline. We examine the political institutions and budgetary processes that can affect fiscal policy in Pakistan. A sound fiscal policy feeds bond market development, while the bond market provides signals in relation to the prudent conduct of fiscal policy. A common dimension in this mutual relationship is the governance environment. The article concludes that instilling fiscal discipline will remain intractable unless approached comprehensively. Long-term solutions must be found in the development of political institutions and improved governance. An active and liquid bond market can play a crucial role in bringing about fiscal discipline. The real challenge lies in summoning the political will and raising public awareness to implement the required measures.
KEYWORDS: Budget Deficit, Fiscal Policy, Bond Market, Pakistan.
JEL: E62, H62, H61.

This study estimates the impact of monetary policy on lending and deposit rates in Pakistan, using bank data for the period November 2001 to March 2011. We find evidence of a long-run relationship between the lending and discount rate, but the deposit rate is not co-integrated, and the pass-through is not complete. The study finds that, overall, banks pass on only 20 percent of the impact of a change in the discount rate to lenders in the first month. There is also a significant difference among various banks’ pass-through rates. A shortrun analysis reveals that the pass-through of the deposit rate is low at 0.16, which implies that the effectiveness of monetary policy is limited in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Monetary Policy, Lending, Deposit Rates, Pakistan.
JEL: E52, E43.

The objective of this study is to estimate a monetary policy reaction function for Pakistan. To do this, we use data for the period 1992Q4–2010Q2. Our results show that the State Bank of Pakistan reacts to changes in the inflation rate and economic activity in a manner that is consistent with the Taylor (1993) rule, and with the explicit objective of interest rate smoothing and exchange rate management. This policy has remained consistent for most of the sample period, except for the last two years, during which a price hike and the massive depreciation of domestic currency led to a significant change in the parameters of the policy reaction function. We also find evidence of nonlinearity in the reaction function as the response to an inflation rate above 6.4 percent is found to be more aggressive than that in low inflationary episodes.
KEYWORDS: Inflation, Monetary Policy, Pakistan.
JEL: E52, P44.

This study presents empirical evidence of market discipline, using a panel dataset of listed banks on the Karachi Stock Exchange. We construct multiple riskbased measures from the stock prices between 2004 and 2009 to determine whether an increase in the risk profile results in an increase in compensation for depositors and other creditors. The risk variables used include market risk, value at risk, size and value premium, default likelihood indicator, price relatives, and a control variable representing gross domestic product growth. We find a significant relationship between our risk factors and cost of deposits, indicating that banks align deposit compensation with their risk perception. However, we cannot find a link between the market perception of risk and deposit switching. These findings have important implications for policymakers as market discipline could complement the state’s regulatory role and lower the cost of supervision. Our estimations of value at risk and the default likelihood indicator using stochastic simulations is a methodological contribution that could be used for effective risk management practices.
KEYWORDS: Market Discipline, Karachi Stock Exchange, Value at Risk, Default Likelihood Indicator.
JEL: G21, G20.

This article examines the determinants of banks’ interest margins. The results suggest that short-term government bonds (floating debt) and the large share of interest-insensitive deposits held by banks are the key determinants of the interest margin. This is in contrast to the popular perception that the market power of the oligopolistic industry contributes to banks’ high interest margins. While a behavioral change—a greater inclination to save and an increase in output—might reduce the share of interest-insensitive deposits, the reduction in government debt depends on the state of certain macro-variables and macroeconomic management. Given these determinants and the possible ways of containing margins, the containment process is a tall order. The study also implicitly confirms that government borrowing is crowding out private investment.
KEYWORDS: Interest Margin, Banks, Pakistan.
JEL: G12, G21.

This study attempts to investigate the impact of changes in bank governance on bank performance in Pakistan. Governance changes entail the privatization and restructuring of state-owned banks, and the merger and acquisition of private and foreign banks. Using the concept of frontier efficiency, we adopt an empirical framework that allows us to study the impact of all governance reform variables in the same model. First, we estimate a stochastic cost frontier model using unbalanced panel data on commercial banks for the period 1991–2005. Second, we decompose banks’ total factor productivity (TFP) change into its different components, using the estimated frontier. In general, the results show an improvement in banks’ cost efficiency following changes in bank governance. We note that governance changes bring about an improvement in banks’ TFP vis-à-vis that of banks that did not undergo governance changes. We find a declining trend in TFP change (TFPC), which could be a consequence of the banking industry’s increased profitability. We also note that bank selection for governance changes has a mixed effect on TFPC, while bank consolidation seems to be more effective in improving TFPC.
KEYWORDS: Bank Reform, Total Factor Productivity, Stochastic Frontier Model, Pakistan.
JEL: D24, M31, J54.

This article examines the performance of Pakistan’s mutual fund industry during 2006–10, a period characterized both by bullish and bearish markets. An analysis of fund types reveals that Islamic funds have shown strong growth in spite of their lackluster performance compared to conventional funds. Income funds appear to have suffered as a consequence of the underdeveloped bond market, and very high t-bill rates have resulted in negative excess returns during the period. For stock funds, market indices and size are significant factors that indicate a preference for large-cap stocks of managers. With consistently negative or insignificant alphas, no fund manages to outperform the market.
KEYWORDS: Mutual Funds, Fund Performance, Pakistan.
JEL: G11, G23.