One of the more celebrated propositions found in international trade is the case that trade liberalization is associated with declining prices, so that protectionism is inflationary. In line with this view, Romer (1993) postulates the hypothesis that inflation is lower in small and open economies. The objective of this study is to examine Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan. For this purpose, we have used multivariate cointegration and a vector error correction model. The study covers the period from 1960 to 2007. The empirical findings under the cointegration test show that there is a significant negative long-run relationship between inflation and trade openness, which confirms the existence of Romer’s hypothesis in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Trade openness, inflation, cointegration, vector error correction model, Pakistan.
JEL: F41, C22, O53.

The objective of this paper is to assess the conditions for inflation targeting in Pakistan. The recent inflationary surge in Pakistan calls for rethinking monetary policy afresh. This paper argues the case for inflation targeting in Pakistan as a policy option to achieve price stability. The country experienced an inflation rate of just below 10 percent during 1970-2009, which makes it a potential candidate for inflation targeting. Applying the VAR technique to data for the same period, inflation is shown to be adaptive in nature, leading us to reject the accelerationist hypothesis. The Lucas critique holds as people are found to use forward-looking models in forming expectations about inflation. The paper also sheds some light on the State Bank of Pakistan’s level of preparedness for the possibility of adopting inflation targeting, for which transparency and autonomy are prerequisites. The interest rate channel can play the role of a nominal anchor in the long run.
KEYWORDS: Monetary policy, central bank, inflation targeting, Pakistan.
JEL: E31, E52, C32.

This paper shows that inequality in consumption expenditure in Pakistan improved slightly between 1992/93 and 2004/05, and that the extent of inequality in food consumption has remained substantially lower than in nonfood consumption. An important result is that household expenditure on education has been more unequally distributed than overall consumption expenditures. In contrast, healthcare expenditure in urban areas has been distributed relatively more evenly in recent years, while the level of inequality in healthcare expenditures in rural areas has remained persistent and somewhat higher.
KEYWORDS: Consumption inequality, decomposition, Gini coefficient, Pakistan.
JEL: D63, D6, I3, D31.

Using Theil’s inequality coefficient based on the mean square prediction error, this paper evaluates the forecasting efficiency of the central government budget and revised budget estimates in Pakistan for the period 1987/88 to 2007/08 and decomposes the errors into biasedness, unequal variation and random components to analyze the source of error. The results reveal that budgetary forecasting is inefficient in Pakistan and the error is due mainly to exogenous variables (random factors). We also find that neither the budget nor revised budget estimates of revenue and expenditure satisfy the criteria of rational expectations of forecasting. Further, there is very little evidence of improvement in the efficiency of budgetary forecasts over time.
KEYWORDS: Budget, Forecast errors, Theil’s inequality coefficient, rational expectations, Pakistan.
JEL: C53, E62, H68.

Keynes (1930) proposed that an asset is more liquid than another “if it is more certainly realisable at short notice without loss” (vol. II, p. 67). This definition suggests that the liquidity of an asset is twofold. First, an asset should have a market that can readily absorb the sale, and second, do so without risk to its final value. This suggests that investors should be rewarded for both the level of liquidity and liquidity risk. The standard form of asset pricing models assumes financial markets to be perfectly liquid. In a perfectly liquid market, there are no arbitrage possibilities. Therefore, the under traditional asset pricing approach, all assets that have similar expected cash flows must have the same price. This phenomenon of frictionless markets ignores the impact of liquidity of financial assets on their respective prices and consequently on returns. The relation between liquidity and expected returns has been statistically observed and explains certain market anomalies such as the small firm effect, equity premium, and risk-free rate puzzle.
KEYWORDS: stock returns, Liquidity, frictionless markets.
JEL: N/A.

The liberalization of the agricultural sector in general and the rice subsector in particular has been a major component of Bangladesh’s structural adjustment program initiated in 1992. However, the government has continued to intervene in the rice subsector. This paper examines whether the regional/divisional rice markets have become spatially integrated following the liberalization of the rice market. Wholesale weekly coarse rice prices at six divisional levels over the period of January 2004 to November 2006 were used to test the degree of market integration in Bangladesh using co-integration analysis and a vector error correction model (VECM). The Johansen co-integration test indicated that there are at least three co-integrating vectors implying that rice markets in Bangladesh during the study period are moderately linked together and therefore the long-run equilibrium is stable. The short-run market integration as measured by the magnitude of market interdependence and the speed of price transmission between the divisional markets has been weak.
KEYWORDS: Market liberalization, integration, vector error correction model, rice, price transmission, Bangladesh.
JEL: Q11, D40.

The Sixth Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy was hosted by the Center for Research in Economics and Business (CREB) of the Lahore School of Economics from April 22nd to April 23rd, 2010 and the annual Special Edition of the Lahore Journal of Economics contains the Papers and Proceedings of this conference. The objective of the conference was to promote discussion on economic management and strategic issues facing Pakistan today, because if the country can successfully deal with key challenges, it can make the transition to a middle income country by 2020. These challenges include addressing the recurrent energy crises, overcoming the persistent poor government revenue mobilization effort and bridging the growing regional disparities and lack of trust between the four provinces.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Lahore School, Annual Conference, CREB, Sixth, economic management.
JEL: N/A.

This article suggests that Pakistan requires a different development paradigm. The analysis begins by giving a quick overview of some of the larger economies of the region and assesses the divisions that have developed between the people as a result of national strategies. The paper goes on to present a brief history of the previous attempts at decentralization in Pakistan and a discussion of how these were thwarted. This is followed by a discussion of how decentralization can be successful in Pakistan after the 18th Amendment and the 7th NFC Award.
KEYWORDS: Development, policy, decentralization, Pakistan.
JEL: O20, O23, H77.

This paper looks at the issue of federalism in Pakistan. It begins with an analysis of the conceptual paradigms of federalism and goes on to examine the history of federalism in Pakistan. The paper goes on to discuss the reasons for the failure to develop an organic federal covenant as well as discuss how the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award and the 18th Amendment may be indicative of a paradigm shift. The paper concludes by presenting the way forward for federalism in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Federalism, governance, Pakistan.
JEL: H77, O2.

This paper analyzes Pakistan’s energy sector issues and highlights (i) the importance of the link between energy and the environment, and (ii) the central importance of energy efficiency for high return demand-side solutions to meet the country’s energy needs. The paper argues that energy planning should integrate the external cost of energy use in deciding about the composition of supply: coal, oil, gas, hydropower, renewable, nuclear, and solar. By utilizing external cost estimates made by the European Commission for Europe, and the US National Academy of Sciences, a total cost (external + internal) ranking of primary energy sources for Pakistan is estimated. This estimate is at the low end of the cost spectrum because classic pollutants—sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide—in Pakistan are significantly higher than in Europe or the US. The paper also discusses the experiences of China and OECD countries in increasing energy-wide efficiency. A central lesson emerging from the analysis is that Pakistan will have to significantly increase its energy-related research and development expenditure in order to adequately address its energy sector issues. A quadrupling from 0.25 % of gross domestic product is recommended over a decade.
KEYWORDS: Energy, policy, environment, Pakistan.
JEL: Q48, Q47, Q5.