Microinsurance in Pakistan is still in its nascent stages. More than half of the current microinsurance policies in effect in Pakistan are offered through the Benazir Income Support Program (BISP), with the remainder provided in conjunction with microcredit services offered by various microfinance institutions (MFIs), microfinance banks, nongovernment organizations, and rural support programs (RSPs). The policies offered by the microcredit sector are mainly creditlife policies, which cover loan balances in the event of the borrower’s death. In addition, some lenders—principally the RSPs—offer small health insurance policies covering the hospitalization of the borrower and (sometimes) their spouse. As catastrophic health expenses and deaths in the family are among the most important economic stressors that households face, it makes sense that microinsurance should first make inroads in these areas. It is difficult to say what impact microinsurance has had in Pakistan, since few rigorous evaluations have been undertaken to date. What we do know is that utilization has been low, explained by providers as limited client awareness of the benefits and coverage. In the short to medium term, microinsurance outreach can be expanded by offering health microinsurance (HMI) coverage to microcredit borrowers’ entire households, and by offering HMI to all community members within an RSP, rather than only microloan borrowers and their spouses. Partnering with mobile phone operators for automated, digital payments can also significantly expand potential customer volume while reducing transaction costs. HMIs might also be combined with health savings accounts that households can use to pay for medications and outpatient services not covered by HMI plans. Provinces could also leverage the existing database of poverty scorecards implemented by BISP to channel partially government-subsidized microinsurance policies toward poor households just above the BISP threshold.
KEYWORDS: Microinsurance, social insurance, poor, Pakistan.
JEL: G21.

This study aims to capture volatility patterns using GARCH (1,1) models. It evaluates these models to obtain one-step-ahead forecastabilities by employing four major forecasting evaluation criteria, and compares two different currencies— the Pakistan rupee and the US dollar—as domestic and foreign currency-valued exchange rates, respectively. The results show that using an international vehicle currency is favorable in Pakistan’s context. However, the Kuwaiti dinar, Canadian dollar, US dollar, Singapore dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and Malaysian ringgit are found to be preferable when performing direct international transactions. Using the root mean square errors and mean absolute errors techniques, the study also assess the robustness of measuring one-step-ahead forecasts.
KEYWORDS: Time series analysis, GARCH models, foreign exchange markets, forecasting, exchange rate volatility, Pakistan.
JEL: C53, F31, C22, F37, F44.

This article empirically examines the interest rate pass‐through mechanism for Pakistan, using six‐month treasury bills as a proxy for the policy rate (the exogenous variable) and the weighted average lending rate and weighted average deposit rate as endogenous variables representing the lending and deposit channels, respectively. We use data for a six‐year period from June 2005 to May 2011, published by the central monetary authority in Pakistan. The widely accepted error correction mechanism is used to examine the short‐run and longrun pass‐through; a vector error correction mechanism impulse response function helps measure the short‐run speed of the pass‐through. We find that there is an incomplete pass‐through in Pakistan for both the lending and deposit channels. The impact is greater on the lending channel than on the deposit channel in both the short and long run, while the adjustment speed is higher for the lending channel.
KEYWORDS: Interest rate pass‐through, interest rate channel, transmission mechanism, monetary policy, Pakistan.
JEL: E58, E43.

This paper examines the behavior of beta coefficients (systematic risk) for underlying stocks around the introduction of single-stock futures (SSFs) contracts in the Pakistani market, by employing models that account for nonsynchronous and thin trading and varying market conditions as “bull” and “bear” markets. Unlike the results of earlier studies on US markets, the empirical evidence tends to support a decline in systematic risk for the majority of underlying stocks in the post-futures listings period. Nevertheless, similar to SSFs stocks, we also find empirical evidence of a decrease in systematic risk for many of the control group stocks. This indicates that changes in beta estimates for SSFs-listed stocks might not be induced by the introduction of SSFs contract trading, but could be attributed to other market-wide or industry changes that have affected the overall market. Several plausible reasons, such as lack of program trading activities normally associated with index futures, market microstructure differences between developed markets and a developing market such as Pakistan, and the capturing of the “bear” and “bull” market effects on stock betas in our estimation procedure could explain these different results for Pakistan’s market.
KEYWORDS: Systematic risk, beta, stock index futures, single-stock futures, stock price volatility, GARCH model, bear and bull markets, thin trading, Pakistan.
JEL: G10, G13.

This study uses a structural model to analyze the co-determinants of capital structure and stock returns. Applying a generalized method of moments (GMM) model to a panel dataset for 100 nonfinancial firms for the period 2006– 10, our results indicate that both leverage and stock returns affect each other but that the former has a dominant effect on the latter. The results illustrate that profitability, growth, and liquidity are significant determinants of leverage and stock returns. Profitability negatively affects leverage and positively affects stock returns. Growth has a positive effect, while liquidity has a negative effect on leverage and stock returns. Firm size does not have any significant effect on either capital structure or stock returns.
KEYWORDS: Capital structure, stock returns, GMM, Pakistan.
JEL: C33, C36, G30.

This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Mango, unit root, cointegration, Granger causality, Pakistan.
JEL: Q11.

This study examines the impact of health information provision on healthrelated knowledge and corresponding behaviors. Our main assumption is that women’s health can be improved by adopting health protective and healthenhancing behaviors. The study employs a before–after, no-control-group design, aimed at examining whether exposure to health knowledge concerning breast cancer can change participants’ behavior in relation to breast self-examination. Our sample consists of 50 young females whose knowledge and behavior related to breast cancer was assessed in a pre-exposure phase, followed by an exposure session during which they were shown a video film, participated in a discussion, and were given health education literature about breast cancer to take home. Two weeks later, the participants were reassessed, using the same measures. Their health knowledge and behavior were found to have improved significantly. We recommend that formal education should incorporate health education as part of the curricula at all academic levels, especially for women. The mass media can also play an important role in improving public health protective behavior.
KEYWORDS: Health, breast cancer, behavior, Pakistan.
JEL: I10.

This paper investigates the causal impact of public school enrolment on child labor. Our main hypothesis is as follows: Is school enrolment a substitute for child labor? Recognizing that schooling and work choices are jointly determined by parents in a utility maximizing framework, the study applies an instrumental variable solution to the problem of simultaneity. This approach entails using the receipt of free textbooks and access to a public primary facility as instruments for public school enrolment. Using data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey for 2007/08, our working sample consists of children between 5 and 14 years of age, which makes up 25 percent of the surveyed population. The results suggest that public school enrolment can be used as a substitute for child labor. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in a household’s enrolment ratio has the potential to reduce the number of hours of paid labor by almost 5 percentage points, ceteris paribus. This substitutability is highest among poor, urban, male children. Moreover, the incidence of child labor is higher among larger poor families.
KEYWORDS: Child labor, school enrolment, instrumental variable, tobit, fixed effects, education subsidy, Pakistan.
JEL: F66.

The economic and institutional structure required to successfully adopt and implement an inflation targeting framework (ITF) is often lacking in emerging economies. This paper evaluates these structures both qualitatively and quantitatively for Pakistan’s economy. Although our comprehensive assessment finds that many of the core requirements remain unrealized, the literature and real-time experience argue that an ITF remains possible for emerging economies even in the absence of these conditions. We investigate whether—were the State Bank of Pakistan to adopt an ITF—there exists a stable and significant relationship between the policy rate (monetary tool) and inflation measure (objective). It is important to analyze this bivariate relationship, given the key role of the interest rate in mitigating deviations between actual and target inflation when working within an ITF. To illustrate this relationship, we use Granger Causality test, but our estimates fail to find any significant link between the interest rate and inflation. On the basis of our overall findings, we suggest that Pakistan, in the absence of most of the fundamental requirements of an ITF, is perhaps not yet ready for it.
KEYWORDS: Inflation targeting, Pakistan, monetary policy.
JEL: E52, E30, E58.

Clusters have the potential to grow, but their potential in Pakistan is rarely analyzed and examined. This study examines the knitwear cluster of Lahore in general and the performance of enterprises in particular. Most of the literature on clusters in Pakistan has not looked at the characteristics of the individual enterprises that play a pivotal role in cluster development. Using primary data collected from 59 finished-knitwear producers in Lahore, this study assesses the role of human capital in acquiring multifaceted innovations. We find that general human capital acquired by schooling and specific human capital acquired through operational experience is associated with the size of the enterprise. Additionally, specific human capital acquired through operational and marketing experience is strongly correlated with improved marketing channels.
KEYWORDS: Clusters, human capital, schooling, multifaceted, Pakistan.
JEL: E24.