This paper uses foreign direct investment (FDI) data from 39 developing countries for the period 2002–11 to explore whether the expected future turmoil risk of a country plays a significant role in determining FDI. It concludes that countries for which the expected future turmoil risk is very high are likely to have lower FDI inflows than countries for which the expected future turmoil risk is low, keeping all other factors constant. The results also illustrate that GDP per capita, democratic accountability, religious tension, and FDI inflows in the previous period are important determinants of FDI in developing countries.
KEYWORDS: Political risk, foreign direct investment, expected future turmoil risk.
JEL: F23, C33, C23, F21.

This study examines the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on economic growth and employment in Pakistan. We conduct a time series analysis of quarterly data for 1997–2011, applying the autoregressive distributed lag bounds-testing approach and an unrestricted error correction model. Our analysis suggests that the impact of the crisis was transmitted primarily through two channels—the financial sector and trade—with a corresponding negative effect on economic growth and employment. Of the two channels, the magnitude of the trade effect is larger than that of the financial sector.
KEYWORDS: Financial crisis, financial stress, economic growth, cointegration.
JEL: O16, C51, C43, O4.

This study attempts to determine the factors that affect educated women’s decision to participate in the labor force. Based on a field survey conducted in the district of Multan, we find that a number of factors have a positive and significant impact on women’s decision to work. These include women who fall in the age groups 35–44 and 45–54, the coefficients of all levels of education, the presence of an educated husband, marital status, family structure, and family expenditure. The presence of an educated father, being an educated married woman, location, distance from the district headquarters, the husband’s employment status and income, and ownership of assets significantly reduces women’s labor force participation. The results of the earnings equation show that variables such as women who live in an urban area and their level of education and experience are associated with a substantial increase in earnings with each additional year. The number of children has a negative and significant impact on women’s earnings. The hours-of-work model shows that age and the number of completed years of education have a positive effect on working hours, while the number of dependents and the number of hours spent on household activities have a negative effect on working hours.
KEYWORDS: Human capital, labor force participation, earnings function, time allocation, Punjab, Pakistan.
JEL: D00, J21.

Over the last few years, the Pakistani economy has faced a variety of challenges which has led economic managers to focus more on immediate problems at the expense of long term structural issues. The purpose of the Lahore School’s Tenth Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy was to help policy makers take a step back and look at some of the critical issues that Pakistan needs to face if it is to achieve growth in the medium to long term. Thus the central theme of the conference was ‘Pakistan in the Global Economy – Opportunities and Challenges’ and a range of key structural issues was discussed by a variety of experts. What made the conference unique was that many of these issues have not been discussed and debated thoroughly before in the Pakistani context. Some of the highlights of the conference were Asma Khalid’s (from the State Bank of Pakistan) extremely insightful analysis of the parallel foreign exchange market in Pakistan (which has not been analyzed in depth before) as well as the call by many of the presenters for a well-formulated industrial policy in Pakistan. Similarly, the conference also focused on some key export sectors (such as garments) as well as strategies for improving Pakistan’s export competitiveness and diversifying exports. Finally, some of the participants noted that in a rush to access new markets, Pakistan must tread carefully when agreeing to trade agreements with potentially large trading partners. As Pakistani policy makers sit and decide on economic strategies, it is absolutely critical that they pay very close attention to these issues.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, economy, Pakistan, policy.
JEL: N/A.

This paper seeks to describe and analyze the parallel foreign exchange (FX) market in Pakistan. The very nature of this market implies that there is little formal documentation or data to describe it, and so any assessment will be, by definition, subjective. However, parties that transact in the parallel market are familiar with parts of it, on which basis this paper aims to give a comprehensive picture of the structure and evolution of this market in Pakistan. We start with a brief historical perspective, which flags the importance of workers’ remittances to the country and explains how the bulk of this inflow is transacted through the hundi/hawala network (informal moneychangers). We then place this network within the context of the larger FX market and show how it interfaces with the interbank market. We also discuss how many hundi/hawala agents have evolved into formal exchange companies and list the various sources and uses of FX transacted in the kerb market. The conclusion spells out the importance and resilience of the parallel FX market, the need to push toward full amalgamation with the formal FX market, and the key role of workers’ remittances in Pakistan’s macro-economy.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, foreign exchange, informal economy, hundi/hawala, macro-economy.
JEL: F31, E44.

One of the most pressing issues concerning policymakers today is the choice of an exchange rate regime. Despite the intricacies of this problem, monetary authorities could narrow down their list of options if they were to focus on the following principles: full implementation to ensure credibility and synchronization with domestic realities and economic infrastructure. This paper proposes an optimal exchange rate regime for Pakistan based on a historical study of the outcomes and performance of different monetary stances adopted over the last 40 years.
KEYWORDS: Exchange rate, flexibility, regime, fear of floating, floating, pegging, Pakistan.
JEL: F31, E58, F41, E42, F33.

This paper aims to assess the harmful impacts of exchange rate depreciations on Pakistan’s economy, including impacts on international capital movements, wages, the domestic price level, and development. Devaluation of a currency in terms of foreign currencies or metallic standards was for long considered to be undesirable and, if unavoidable, a sign of failure. Attitudes have since changed and devaluation is thought to bring advantages, especially by making economies more competitive exporters. This paper is intended to show that it has disadvantages that outweigh any supposed advantages, notably its effects on inflation, income distribution, service on foreign debt and incentives. It does so by describing in concrete terms the relations between foreign and domestic prices and the costs of untradeable goods and services that are components of the price of any good in any domestic price index. It also discusses the motives, official and unofficial, that have prompted the monetary authorities of Pakistan to make a practice of regular depreciation of the rupee and to question their justification.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, exchange rate, depreciation.
JEL: E31, O24.

This paper’s basic premise is that an improvement in Pakistan’s export performance is crucial to raising economic growth. After examining the reasons generally given for Pakistan’s poor export performance, we conclude that the country’s very slow productivity growth was the single most important factor that hurt competitiveness. We argue that a coherent and articulated industrial policy is required to overcome this disadvantage. While the experience of the East Asian economies offers useful lessons, Pakistan’s policy must accord with its own conditions, which are, in many ways, different. The formulation of industrial policy should involve key stakeholders, particularly the private sector. The paper identifies certain factors that should underpin the new industrial policy, notably the changed basis of international specialization and rules governing world trade.
KEYWORDS: East Asia, industrial policy, export performance, productivity.
JEL: F43, L59.

This paper takes a historical perspective to search for the major causes of Pakistan’s stop-go growth cycles and come to the conclusion that, to varying degrees, the foreign exchange constraint provides a major explanation for these cycles of irregular economic growth in the country, particularly since the 1990s.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, macroeconomic management, foreign exchange, IMF.
JEL: F43.

The textiles industry in Pakistan has failed to fulfill its “historical mission,” whether judged in terms of promoting rapid and sustained economic growth, reducing poverty, or providing employment to young women and so promoting wider social transformation. This paper makes a case for a particular and targeted form of industrial policy that would help the textiles sector learn and upgrade. It argues that those factors commonly seen as constraints to industrial policy—the “China effect,” the global rules of globalization, global value chains, and the problems of energy and education in Pakistan—do need careful consideration, but they are not insurmountable obstacles to industrial upgrading. The key market failure is the risk and uncertainty associated with acquiring and learning to use new technology. The paper explores a number of policy options, reviewing the lessons that cannot be learned from the Republic of Korea and India and one that can from Bangladesh. The latter shows that rapid and sustainable export growth in textiles can be achieved, even in an economy with a weak, corrupt, and unstable form of governance.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Korea, Bangladesh, textiles, industrial policy, technological change, upgrading.
JEL: O40, L50.