This study examines the dual role of Pakistan’s tariff policy in raising fiscal revenue and shaping export competitiveness over the period 1981–2024. Using a Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) time-series framework, it estimates how tariff changes affect imports, exports, and government revenue. The results show that a one percent increase in tariff rates on production-related imports reduces their inflow by about 0.28 percent, while a one percent increase in production-related imports raises exports by about 1.26 percent. Together, these findings indicate that tariff rationalization supports export growth indirectly, by improving firms’ access to the imported inputs used in domestic production. While tariff reductions encourage the import of essential inputs and strengthen export performance, higher tariffs generate only short-term revenue gains. The findings point to a clear trade-off: tariff elasticity of revenue is positive in the short run, whereas export elasticity is negative and statistically significant. These results are highly relevant as the Tariff Policy 2019–24 has concluded and a new framework for 2025–30 has just started. The study recommends gradual tariff rationalisation, a reduction in para-tariffs, and targeted protection for strategic industries to balance revenue considerations with long-term export competitiveness.
KEYWORDS: Tariff rationalization, export competitiveness, government revenue, import elasticity, two-stage least squares (2SLS).

JEL: F13, F14, H20, C22.

We studied the impact of phrasing on consumer inflation expectations in Pakistan using an online survey. Our results imply that optimal phrasing of the question can significantly reduce bias in responses. When the question is asked as an absolute change from PKR 100, responses are high and volatile, with many in multiples of tens and fifties. Moreover, we studied the impact of closed-ended questions on inflation expectations and found that responses to closed-ended questions suffer from central tendency bias. Our study also confirms the impact of information on the formation of inflation expectations. When presented with information about current inflation levels, respondents tend to lower their inflation expectations. Literature provides two possible reasons for this: information bias or social bias.
KEYWORDS: Inflation, expectations, bias, Pakistan.

JEL: C83, E31.

Unintended pregnancies remain an important reproductive health concern in Pakistan, particularly given high fertility rates and low contraceptive use. This study examines how past fertility intentions and contraceptive use influence subsequent pregnancy experiences. Data from 1,874 women in union aged 15–49 from the Longitudinal Panel Study: Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) Framework (2020–2022) were analyzed. Fertility intentions were measured by women’s desire to delay or limit pregnancies, and contraceptive use was recorded as use of any method. Results indicate that women who previously expressed a desire to delay pregnancy still experienced subsequent pregnancies, and those using contraception were less likely to report unintended pregnancies. Specifically, 47% of women in round 2 and 81% in round 3 who wished to delay pregnancies reported a subsequent pregnancy, while 40% and 43% of contraceptive users in the baseline and midterm periods, respectively, experienced fewer unintended pregnancies. These findings highlight the need to strengthen women-focused family planning programs, improve access to effective contraceptive methods, and provide counseling tailored to women’s reproductive goals.
KEYWORDS: Fertility, contraceptive, health, monitoring, Pakistan.

JEL: C33.

This paper estimates the impact of unanticipated public debt shocks on economic growth in Pakistan using a forecast-error identification strategy. Exploiting deviations of realized debt outcomes from contemporaneous IMF forecasts for the period 1994–2025, the analysis finds that a 1 percentage point increase in the public debt reduces real GDP by about 0.21 percent in the subsequent year. Extending the analysis to allow for nonlinearities, a debt threshold of 57 percent of GDP is identified, beyond which debt exerts a drag on growth. The findings highlight the macroeconomic costs of fiscal surprises and persistently high debt-to-GDP ratios, underscoring the need for a credible medium-term fiscal reform strategy.
KEYWORDS: Public debt, shocks, economic growth, Pakistan.

JEL: H68, O49.

Board diversity, a key determinant of strategic decision-making and financial performance, has gained enormous attraction from academia, fascinating scientific researchers to contribute to this topic. Among various dimensions of diversity, board gender diversity has received substantial academic and regulatory attention due to its theoretical grounding and empirical relevance. This study is an effort to systematically evaluate the existing literature on board diversity through a mix of bibliometric and content analysis of 400 research articles retrieved from the Scopus database for the time period 2015-2023. The findings reveal strong international collaboration between researchers from developed and developing economies, with publications concentrated in top-ranked finance and governance journals. This study also identifies several theories describing the board gender diversity and firm performance nexus. This study also examines the trending themes, highlights impediments to growth in literature and makes recommendations for future studies. Among other attributes, this study only focused on gender diversity and future studies should focus on other definitions of diversity, e.g., age, nationality, size, education level, tenure, and experience
KEYWORDS: Board diversity, firm performance, bibliometric analysis, content analysis.

JEL: M12, M14.

Research suggests that politics plays a pivotal role in public service provision in contexts of scarce resources. However, there is limited evidence available on how dynastic politicians influence public service delivery. We examine this question in the context of the health sector in Punjab, Pakistan. By employing a representative sample of rural health clinics, we develop measures to capture doctors’ outcomes at the clinic level. These data are then matched with provincial constituency-level data to study the impact of having a dynastic member of the parliament (MP) on doctors’ assignment, attendance, and tenure in their respective constituencies. Our findings show that having a dynastic MP has no discernible impact on the assignment and attendance of doctors. However, clinics in constituencies with a dynastic MP have relatively experienced doctors. Furthermore, our suggestive evidence from the Pakistan Household and Living Measurement Survey (PSLM) shows that individuals living in districts with a higher proportion of dynastic MPs report lower improvements in clinic services and are less satisfied with those services. Our main findings remain robust to various alternative explanations.
KEYWORDS: Political Dynasties, Public Goods Provision, Pakistan, PSLM.

JEL: H51, H89.

The Government of Pakistan reimburses SAR 30 in Telegraphic Transfer Charges (TTC) for every USD 100 or more transferred by a foreign MTO into the country, as compensation for their transaction costs. In May 2020, the government removed this facility for KSA, citing zero transaction costs announced by the KSA authorities for digital money transfers from the kingdom. The inflow of workers’ remittances from KSA began to decrease once KSA eased the travel ban. This paper aims to estimate the impact of the withdrawal of TTC reimbursement on remittances flowing from KSA to Pakistan. The difference-indifference (DID) method is applied to data from July 2018 to September 2022. The estimates indicate that this policy caused an average monthly decline in remittances from KSA between US$ 31 million and US$ 76 million. The findings appear to be robust to various estimation adjustments.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, remittance inflow, policy impact, Covid-19, panel data.

JEL: F24, F31.

This study examines the relationships among financial development, renewable energy, institutional quality, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions using dynamic panel data techniques from 1990 to 2020. The empirical results of the econometric analysis suggest that financial development does not necessarily reduce CO2 emissions unless institutional quality improves. Financial development exacerbates environmental deterioration by increasing CO2 emissions in all regions except Europe, whereas renewable energy consumption and institutional quality improve environmental quality. Thus, good institutional quality emerged as a mediating variable between financial development and environmental quality in curbing CO2 emissions and promoting sustainable development worldwide.
KEYWORDS: Carbon dioxide emissions; economic growth, financial development; institutional quality; renewable energy consumption, system GMM.

JEL: E31, Q41.

This paper explores the economics of environmental sustainability practices in the hospitality industry, focusing on the operational efficiency of hotels, cost-effectiveness, and return on investment (ROI), with a specific focus on the emerging market in Pakistan. Results indicate that green retrofits, including LED lighting and HVAC optimization, deliver average energy savings of 25-40 percent, payback periods of 1-5 years, and internal rate of return (IRR) of 18. Food-waste minimization systems, such as Winnow and Leanpath, have a 7:1 ROI in two years, and water recycling systems reduce consumption by 20-30 percent in less than four years. Hotels that operate sustainably worldwide show reduced operating costs by up to 30 percent and premium rates of 5-15 percent, based on customer willingness to pay higher rates in environmentally conscious hotels. The article presents a combination of comparative ROI modeling, policy SWOT analysis, and cross-regional benchmarking to assess the feasibility and scalability of green investments. By linking economic indicators to environmental performance, this research confirms that sustainability practices are not only environmentally advantageous but also economically strategic.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, remittance inflow, policy impact, Covid-19, panel data.

JEL: E22, F64, O13.

It is widely believed that resources are becoming scarcer, and measuring their availability is crucial for efficient allocation. This study measures the availability and affordability of essential items in Pakistan before and after COVID-19. Time Price, Price Elasticity of Population (PEP), and Simon Abundance Index (SAI) are calculated to analyze thirty-nine items from Pakistan's CPI basket. The findings reveal that from 2006 to 2018, the Time Price decreased for almost all items, indicating increased affordability and resource abundance relative to population growth. However, the COVID-19 pandemic significantly increased the Time Prices of essential commodities, making them less affordable and less abundant. Policymakers are advised to adjust wages to maintain purchasing power and to adopt resilient strategies to ensure Pakistan is well prepared for such crises.
KEYWORDS: Resource abundance, time price, Simon abundance index, inflation measurement, COVID-19 impact, Pakistan.

JEL: E31, C43, J21, O47.

This study assesses the impact of external shocks and exchange rate movements on prices. The main benefit of this granular analysis is its ability to capture heterogeneous impacts across different products and geographical areas, which is often overlooked in macro-level studies. The model includes four global shocks: global inflation, US industrial production, global food inflation, and global oil prices. Regarding domestic factors, exchange rate, inflation expectations, and inflation persistence are considered. The dependent variables are prices, including 356 items from the Urban Consumer Price Index (CPI), 244 items from the Rural CPI, and 110 items from the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), all measured monthly. The results show that global food prices have the most significant influence on both national CPI and WPI inflation, while global oil prices have the least impact on consumer and wholesale inflation in Pakistan. Domestically, the exchange rate shows the highest pass-through effect on inflation, with inflation expectations and persistence having comparatively lower impacts.
KEYWORDS: Exchange Rate; Global Shocks; Oil Price Shocks; Inflation; Prices; Pass-Through.

JEL: E31, Q41.

Foreign aid has been an essential source of external financing for developing countries, with the belief that it can foster growth in recipient nations. Specifically, the type of aid known as Program Aid is particularly important because it provides the funds needed to implement a reform agenda in the target area or sector. However, the literature shows that the relationship between foreign aid and economic growth is complex, and empirical findings are inconclusive, necessitating further research in this area. In this context, the present study employed an innovative triangular conceptual modeling (TCM) approach to assess the effectiveness of program aid for Pakistan. The goal is to analyze effectiveness both directly, through the reform process, and indirectly, through financing development spending or fiscal deficit. Results show that program aid has a significantly positive impact on economic growth. However, this positive effect becomes negative once the effect of fiscal deficit is taken into account, suggesting that program aid is mainly used to finance fiscal deficits rather than to improve efficiency in the country. Additionally, the findings reveal that the indirect effect of program aid on economic growth is substantially larger than the direct effect. The greater indirect effects imply that the primary objective of program aid is to meet budgetary requirements or to finance the government’s development spending.
KEYWORDS: Program Aid, Economic Growth, Triangular Conceptual Modeling Technique, IMF.

JEL: F35, O19, O40, F33.

Pakistan provides export financing schemes to support exports. This study examines two main schemes: one offered by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) through commercial banks, and the other by the Federal Bureau of Revenue (FBR). The study evaluates the performance of these schemes from the perspectives of commercial banks (as private entities) and exporters (as beneficiaries). While large exporters improve their export performance by utilizing these schemes, the lengthy process and the time lag between production and delivery can hinder exporters’ performance. The qualitative findings indicate that these export financing schemes mainly benefit large exporting firms, while medium and small enterprises are less likely to take advantage of them due to the complexities involved.
KEYWORDS: Export Financing, Export Facilitation, Rebate, Commercial Banks, Exporting Firms.

JEL: E31, Q41.

Sustainable development in the Global South faces a complex challenge, influenced by environmental, economic, and social factors, as well as issues like poor governance, political instability, and inequality. The literature emphasizes that institutions are crucial in shaping incentives and behaviors that drive development. Inclusive institutions foster sustainability by providing equitable opportunities, safeguarding property rights, and encouraging innovation, whereas extractive institutions—marked by unequal systems and a lack of basic liberties— hinder progress. This research examines how economic and political institutions affect sustainable development in 94 developing countries from 1990 to 2019. Sustainable development, defined as the ecological efficiency of human development, is measured using the Sustainable Development Index (SDI) introduced by Hickel (2020). Economic institutions are measured using two indicators: economic freedom and de jure economic globalization, while political institutions are evaluated via de jure political globalization, judicial independence, democracy, and civil liberties. The empirical analysis shows that all indicators of inclusive institutions positively influence sustainable development in the Global South. Moreover, democracy proved to be the most effective in promoting sustainability, while the effect of de jure political globalization was the weakest in terms of magnitude (though still statistically significant). These findings underscore the vital role of inclusive institutions in achieving sustainability, highlighting their capacity to balance development goals with environmental considerations. This study demonstrates that democracy enhances sustainable development more than economic liberalization in the Global South, challenging conventional policy priorities.
KEYWORDS: Economic and Political Institutions, Sustainable Development, Economic Freedom, Civil Liberties.

JEL: E02, Q01, O43.

The study examines the impact of foreign direct investment, human capital, and financial development on labor productivity, utilizing data from 2000 to 2019 and panel data from 180 economies. The estimation technique used in the study is GMM, which helps to solve the problems of endogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity. The findings indicate that foreign direct investment, human capital, and financial development have a positive and significant relationship with labor productivity. The square term of human capital also shows a positive relationship with labor productivity, indicating increasing returns. This study contributes to the literature by examining the roles of structural and financial factors using robust techniques. Furthermore, the study’s results offer important policy recommendations, suggesting that the government should invest in projects to develop education and financial infrastructure to achieve high productivity gains.
KEYWORDS: Foreign Direct Investment, Human Capital, Financial Development, Labor Productivity, Trade Openness, System GMM.

JEL: E02, Q01, O43.

Public sector employment remains attractive for important reasons such as job security and a guaranteed pension. Evaluating alternate pension systems has gained importance among policymakers concerned about the aging population and rising poverty levels. Pakistan has a Pay-As-You-Go type pension system, financed by taxpayers’ money, and has resulted in the building up of unfunded liability for the government. The expenditures on superannuation are gradually coming into mainstream discussions on fiscal sustainability and public finance management. These additional expenditure liabilities require an increase in future taxes to be solvent. We use scenario-based projections to highlight how the existing pension system is fiscally unsustainable and what approaches are needed to make it sustainable.
KEYWORDS: Fiscal policy, public economics, public finance, tax-induced, pensions..

JEL: H3, E620.

The Asian Pacific region is spearheading the post-pandemic economic revival, and exploring regional dynamics is becoming increasingly relevant for researchers. In this regard, stock markets have always profoundly influenced a country's economic health, and its behavior varies significantly globally. This indicates stock markets' contextualized nature and response to varying incoming information. Therefore, the study examines the interplay of behavioral and developmental factors in selected stock markets from South Asia. This study draws upon data from 2014 to 2023 and utilizes VAR-based connectedness models to analyze the dynamics of stock market connectedness in the region. This study also considers the influence of pertinent regional climate, security, and economic challenges on stock market behavior. The findings indicate the presence of moderate spillovers among stock markets and from economic, environmental, and security information. Further, most of this spillover is attributed to the markets in developed nations and the economic news sentiments, while climate information's contagion is increasingly becoming relevant. These findings explain the intricate dynamics of these pertinent variables, significantly adding to the understanding of the region.
KEYWORDS: South Asia, stock markets, spillover, sustainability, terrorism, sentiments.

JEL: E44, F21, G14, O11, O44.

This study evaluates three standard food insecurity measures—Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), Food Consumption Score (FCS), and Minimum Dietary Energy Intake Requirement (MDER)—using survey data from 300 individuals in Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. We find a strong correlation (p < 0.01) between FCS and MDER (ρ = 0.93), indicating alignment in assessing dietary energy sufficiency. In contrast, correlations between FCS and HFIAS (ρ = 0.087) and between MDER and HFIAS (ρ = 0.079) are weak, suggesting that HFIAS captures different dimensions of food insecurity. Comparative analysis reveals that FCS and MDER often indicate more severe food insecurity than HFIAS. Bannu consistently shows higher severe food insecurity rates than Dera Ismail Khan, with ANOVA results confirming significant district differences (F = 76.14 for MDER, p = 0.000002; F = 129.1 for FCS, p = 0.00002; F = 11.85 for HFIAS, p = 0.000658). Vulnerable groups, including daily wage households, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and female-headed households, exhibit higher rates of food insecurity. These disparities arise from methodological inconsistencies and the subjective nature of self-reported measures, highlighting the need for accurate measurement through comprehensive surveys to effectively understand the full extent of food insecurity.
KEYWORDS: Food insecurity, internally displaced persons, female-headed households, Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS),Minimum Dietary Energy Intake Requirement (MDER)..

JEL: Q18, C83, O13, D12.

This study conducted a regional analysis of poverty in Pakistan with a particular focus on trends and decomposition. Nine Household Integrated Economic Survey rounds were used in this study from 2001-02 to 2018-19. This study estimated poverty using time series data from all the regions and provinces of Pakistan. The unit of wellbeing used in the study is consumption, and the unit of analysis used is the adult equivalent. Our results show that the poverty rate decreased in all regions and provinces over the analysis period. Poverty rates decreased in all regions from 2001-02 to 2010-11. The decomposition shows that the highest population share is found in Punjab, but it has the lowest poverty share. At the same time, Baluchistan has the lowest population share and the highest poverty share. KPK and Sindh have half of their population below the poverty level. Results show that urban poverty share is higher overall than rural poverty share.
KEYWORDS: Poverty, distribution, trends, decomposition, poverty line..

JEL: I32.

We have used the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to calculate the forward-looking consumer inflation expectation forward-lookingness. We have used DTW instead of widely used parametric techniques as this algorithm does not require specific assumptions relating to time series data. The results suggest that expectations are more backward-looking from 2012 to 2022. Furthermore, we examined consumers' response to the exchange rate regime shift and found evidence of consumers becoming more forwardlooking due to the deliberate change in policy stance from fixed to managed float. This suggests that changes in economic policy can directly impact the consumer's expectations formation process.
KEYWORDS: Consumers, inflation, inflation expectations..

JEL: C63, F31.