Modify your search
Modify your search
Published:July - Dec 1997
Pakistan experienced the reverberations starting in 1988 of the
changes that swept the Asian emerging markets. To create an investment
friendly environment the GoP adopted liberal economic policies of
deregulation, privatisation, opening of capital markets to foreigners,
liberalisation of foreign exchange regulations and dismantling of investment
control - policies that lead to a significant increase in direct and indirect
foreign investment in the country.
These changes resulted in a drastic increase in the financial assets of
Pakistan with stock market capitalisation rising from Rs.l88 bn in 1991 to
Rs.547 bn at present, daily trading volume improving from 2 mn shares in
1991 to 50 mn shares at present and number of listed companies rising
from 542 in 1991 to 788 at present.
KEYWORDS:
Capital markets, domestic market capitalisation, investment, mutual fund investment, Pakistan.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 1997
In 1995 the Republic of Korea (ROK) was officially admitted to the
Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). This
organisation groups together industrially developed countries of the world.
Recently, the World Bank has also released a study of China that predicts
that China is going to become the second biggest economy in the next
fifteen years if its economic growth follows the pattern of the last fifteen
years. ROK is the only country from among the developing countries to join
the ranks of the developed industrialised countries in the last thirty years.
However, it is still a small country compared to China. Hence when China
completes its transformation into an industrialised country the whole world
will be affected.
How did South Korea achieve such an accelerated transition to
prosperity? What measures were adopted by the Chinese leadership that has
allowed China to grow so rapidly? There are many factors that have been
cited to explain Korea's miracle, and rapid Chinese growth. However, In the
following we will highlight the role that education, science and research and
development (R&D) have played in their success.
KEYWORDS:
South Korea, ROK, GDP, OECD, research and development, R & D, investment.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 1997
This article will attempt to answer the question why the
redistribution of land ownership (i.e. land reform) is important and even
necessary for our society's progress and development. Why there remains a
crying need to concretely study the question of agrarian land ownership and
all it implies in terms of political and economic power distribution and its
social fallout in the rural milieu. Let us begin with an examination of how
the present land ownership patterns originated and evolved.
A discussion of the pattern of agrarian land ownership must
necessarily take as its main focus the areas where agriculture is the mainstay.
That inevitably means the provinces of Punjab and Sindh. The other two
provinces, NWFP and Balochistan, with the exception of some relatively
limited areas where canal fed or barani cultivation exists, have economies
that are mixed pastoral/agricultural, an economic base reflective of their
surviving tribal structures.
KEYWORDS:
Land Reform, land ownership, agrarian reforms, Pakistan, economic distribution.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 1997
Child labour exists throughout the third world including Pakistan.
For some unknown reason, the Western Press has chosen to single out
Pakistan to decry the system. The May 1997 issue of the Readers’ Digest
carried a particularly vicious article entitled `No Life for a Child’ giving
harrowing tales of beatings and other forms of coercion to make little
children in Pakistan to work in factories. Advantage is taken of the fact that
there has been no census in the country for two decades to bloat the figures
of child labour. One estimate going the rounds is 15 million. But the more
popular figure is 8 million which both UNICEF and SAARC have adopted.
ILO produced a figure of 6.3 million till, in 1996 it sponsored a survey
which turned up the figure of 3.3 million. In a country with a population of
132 million, every man, woman and child of which is under a debt burden
of about Rs 13,021 per annum the figure of 3.3 million labouring children
should not take anyone by surprise. Not that this is any justification for
child labour.
KEYWORDS:
Child Labour, welfare, enforcement, ILO, UNICEF, social welfare, education.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 1997
Policy formulation and implementation are the chief, though not the
only, business of a modern government, implying exercise of its power. In a
democracy the people themselves grant permission to the government to
exercise power in their name. Thus through the democratic process power is
transformed into legitimate authority. However, there is a feeling that a
policy, formulated through due procedures at the highest echelons of the
government, is sometimes not implemented in the same spirit or in the
same way as was originally intended by the policy makers. Thus there If
need to locate and identify the points where such lapses take place.
KEYWORDS:
Policy formulation, policy implementation, political leadership, administrative leadership.
JEL: N/A.
Note: How Does Environmental Economics Function?
Shamyla Chaudry
Published:July - Dec 1997
In economics we study how and why “people” whether they are
consumers, firms, non-profit organisations or government agencies make
decisions about the use of valuable limited resources. When studying the
environment from an economics perspective we are in fact primarily
focusing on how and why “people” make decisions that have environmental
consequences. Secondly, we focus on how we can manage institutions to
bring these environmental impacts more into balance with changing human
demands and the demands of the ecosystem itself.
If we follow this economic approach several answers emerge to the
basic question asked in environmental economics, that is “Why do people
behave in ways that cause environmental degradation?”
KEYWORDS:
Environmental resources, environmental economics, environmental impacts, Pakistan.
JEL: N/A.
Structural Adjustment, Labour and the Poor in Pakistan
Shahrukh Rafi Khan and Safiya Aftab
Published:Jan - June 1997
In this paper we cite evidence regarding the likely impact of
IMF/World Bank policies on labour and the poor in Pakistan. Our findings
show that since the 1987 bout of structural adjustment, public sector
employment has decreased while wages have been frozen. Also, overall
unemployment in occupations with a high incidence of the poor has
dramatically increased and real wages of skilled and unskilled labour sharply
declined. In addition, subsidies that were critical to the consumption
pattern of the poor have been cut while the burden of indirect taxes on the
poorest income group has increased. Not surprisingly, there has been an
increase in poverty and inequality, particularly in the rural areas.
KEYWORDS:
Structural adjustment, Pakistan, IMF, International Monetary Fund, structural adjustment agreements.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 1997
The diverse growth experience of economies across the globe is
perhaps the most intriguing question that the economics profession faces.
The economies of East Asia have grown rapidly over the past three decades,
while the economic performance of the South Asian and Latin American
countries has been relatively mediocre, although better than that of the
African countries, where the per capita incomes have been generally
declining. Among the developed countries also, there has been considerable
diversity of economic performance.
There is no dearth of research on the question, but there is little
agreement among economists on what explains the diversity of economic
growth experience. One reason for the absence of consensus is that
economic growth is a relatively recent phenomenon and we, as economists
or social scientists, still do not understand well what factors bring it about.
Sustained economic expansion and rise in living standards can be traced
back only to the late eighteenth century, i.e., the time when the Industrial
Revolution started in Great Britain. This is not to suggest that there had
been little social or economic change prior to that epoch. Quite the
contrary. Agricultural practices had been improved over time, and there is a
rich record of the mastery and ingenuity of artisans all over the world. But
such improvements in products and processes as occurred over the period
prior to the Industrial Revolution somehow did not become an economic
force, leading to a general improvement in the living standards.
KEYWORDS:
Global economy, analytics, growth, technology, total factor productivity, TFP.
JEL: N/A.
Institution-Building – Lessons from History
Nadeem ul Haque
Published:Jan - June 1997
In the post war world, numerous attempts at all levels – multinational,
bilateral and domestic – have been made to foster growth and development
in the low income world so that these countries can catch up with their
richer brethren from the industrial countries. Why has growth not been
faster? What can be done to make these countries achieve more balanced
and sustainable growth? These are important questions of the day that are
preoccupying all serious positive social science and development
policymaking. To a large extent, many of the answers that are being derived
relate to the failure of these countries to develop key institutions. Most
practitioners and thinkers are now in agreement on this issue but remain
perplexed at what is required to develop these institutions. The public
sector’s attempts at developing the institutions within its fold have not
succeeded. The fostering of non-governmental institutions also remains fairly
uneven in its results. Donor funding for institutional support too has had
very limited results despite the extensive history of sectoral and institutional
reform that has been supported by substantial financial and technical
assistance and resources.
KEYWORDS:
Growth, Development, institutions, institution-building, donors.
JEL: N/A.
Pakistan’s Experience in Employment Generation at the Micro and Macro Levels, and Future Directions
Shahid Amjad Chaudhry & Masooma Habib
Published:Jan - June 1997
The Pakistan economy is currently going through a period of much
needed structural adjustment focusing on: (i) Reducing fiscal deficits from
about 6 to 4 per cent of GDP, which should reduce public sector
borrowing and bring down interest rates and inflation; (ii) Reducing tariffs
from an average of about 80 per cent in 1993 to about 60 per cent
currently and about 45 per cent next year – which while requiring painful
adjustments particularly in the industrial sectors, should make Pakistan
more competitive in the long term and also benefit consumers; (iii)
Reducing the size of the public sector in the economy by privatizing
nationalized banks, nationalized and public sector industry and public
utilities including power, gas and telecommunications, which should
increase the efficiency of these sectors. All these measures have
implications for employment generation. In the short term they are
slowing down the economy and therefore employment creation is not
taking place at the earlier higher rates. In the long term they should help
stabilize the economy and add significantly to economic growth.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan economy, employment generation, employment, government policy, GDP, formal employment.
JEL: N/A.
An Alternative Paradigm for Urban Development
Kamil Khan Mumtaz
Published:Jan - June 1997
For an increasing number of people around the world, habitation is
not a question of good or bad architecture but of shelter, food, health and
economic survival, a question of political empowerment, domination and the
control over resources, and ultimately a question of criteria and goals of
“development” and “progress”.
With their heroic manifestoes, at the beginning of the century the
modern movement had set out to transform the world. Architects, the
champions of industry and the new mass production technologies were to
bring prosperity, happiness and joy to all mankind. With mechanised
production of buildings and new modes of transpiration we were to build
clean, healthy, well designed, comfortable and aesthetically satisfying new
cities. At the center of much of these dreams were the habitation s of the
common man. Yet today, at the close of the century after some remarkable
“progress” and “development” and despite a profusion of ingenious buildings
by a galaxy of brilliant architects, the world, the real world inhabited by a
very large section of humanity, has been transformed not into the promised
paradise but into a living hell.
KEYWORDS:
Urban development, Pakistan, Lahore, poverty, technology, global warming.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 1997
First, an overview of the world economy to provide us with the stark evidence of the deep economic and social crisis which the world still faces despite the process of far reaching economic reforms and adjustments which many countries have undertaken over the past decade and a half, Global unemployment today, as a proportion of potential employment, is higher than at any time since the Great Depression. Of a world labour force estimated at 2.8 billion people, an estimated 30 per cent are not productively employed. More than 120 million people are registered as unemployed throughout the world, in that they seek and are available for work but cannot find it. An estimated 700 million people are underemployed, the ‘working poor’, and they form the bulk of the estimated 1.1 billion absolute poor in the world. With new entrants joining the labour force at an increasing rate, the pressures on the employment situation and poverty problem will further intensify in the coming years.
Recent economic trends are not very encouraging. In 1993, for the fourth year in succession, average world per capita income fell. In 1992-93, the employment situation worsened in most countries, whether developed, developing or in transition. Outside East and South-East Asia, even if employment levels were sustained, it was usually at the price of falling wages. Employment conditions have also changed considerably and in many cases deteriorated – the risk of job loss persists, young people especially find it more and more difficult to get employment, and the informalisation of employment in urban areas continues as more people turn towards self-employment.
KEYWORDS:
Structural reform, economy, stabilisation, employment levels, unemployment, macro-economics, macro-economic stability.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 1997
Trade Weighted Real Exchange Rate --- Methodology
For the purpose of calculating the trade weighted real exchange rate
series for the years 1982 to 1995 the following definition of PER is used:
PER = price of tradeables
Price of non-tradeables
or
PER = E x Pt
Pn
Instead of simply taking the WPI as a measure of the price of
tradeable goods and CPI as a measure of nontraded goods, the whole system
to calculate their appropriate proxies is worked through.
Price of nontradeables --- domestic price level (Pn)
The definition of expenditure on GDP, used in the Economic Survey
of Pakistan includes private consumption (C), general government current
consumption expenditure (G), gross domestic fixed capital formation and
changes in stock (I), export of goods and non-factor services (X), less imports
of goods and non-factor services (M). In symbols this can be written as:
GDP = C + I + G + X – M
To find the domestic expenditure on non-traded goods, exports (X)
from the above equation are subtracted, which becomes domestic
expenditure on non-traded goods:
GDP – X = C + I + G + X – M – X
or Yn = GDP – X
74 The Lahore Journal of Economics, Vol.2, No.1
The ratio of domestic expenditure on non-traded goods (Yn) at
current prices to the domestic expenditure on non-traded goods at constant
prices can be used as a proxy to measure the domestic price level (Pn) or the
price of non-tradeables.
Pn = Yn at current prices
Yn at constant prices
where;
Yn = expenditure on GDP – exports
Pn = domestic price level
KEYWORDS:
Real exchange rate, exchange rate, Pakistani rupee, Pakistani rupee devaluation.
JEL: N/A.
Book Reviews: Development Issues: Innovations and Successes: Edited by Tasneem Ahmed Siddique
Viqar Ahmed
Published:Jan - June 1997
Enthusiasm about finding the magic route to development and
economic emancipation of the deprived masses of the Third World seems to
have yielded place to cynicism, inertia and an air of resignation. No wonder,
the world has gone back to the two hundred years old Adam Smithian
philosophy of market mechanism, and unbridled capitalism ------ a
“systemless system”. The present "back-to-the-market" wave, of course, has
been expertly marketed by donor agencies and governments. But the meek
way in which the developing countries have accepted it is also the product
of frustrations resulting from assorted strategies and programmes
implemented in the last few decades. Rural development, basic needs,
population planning, import substitution, export-led growth, nationalisation,
public sector corporations, agricultural extension, heavy industry ---- the list
of half-baked policies is long. These were supposed to have been delivered
by bureaucracies which lacked imagination, energy and empathy for the
poor. But their appetite for corruption and capacity for inaction and
lethargy were enormous.
KEYWORDS:
Regional economic integration,
Supply.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 1997
This Report ought to be made essential reading not just for all
governments of the countries of the South, but for each and every
conscientious citizen of this part of the globe. The reason for this somewhat
categorical statement will be made apparent as one reads on. For the time
being it can be said without a shadow of a doubt that it gives a fresh,
enlightening perspective on each and every aspect of world affairs and the
world order, touching not merely the macro canvas but the individual, day
to day existence of our citizens. To the extent that even a cursory scanning
of the contents of the book transforms the reader’s entire perspective and
weltenschauung of life
KEYWORDS:
Report of the South Commission, South Commission, Third World, Manmohan Singh.
JEL: N/A.
Published:October 1996
In Pakistan, historically, regional economic disparity has been an
important political issue. During the 1960’s the economic disparity between
East and West Pakistan fueled the movement for provincial autonomy in
East Pakistan and subsequently the movement for national independence in
what became Bangladesh in 1971. During the late 1970’s and 1980’s the
issue of regional disparity between the provinces of what remains of Pakistan
has acquired an explosive potential. However, this is an issue that has been
charged by emotion, and it may be time now to begin a serious analysis to
enable effective policy formulation to overcome the problem.
KEYWORDS:
regional disparity, regional economic disparity, Pakistan, Punjab.
JEL: N/A.
Published:October 1996
For those trying to find answers to the large number of unresolved
and pressing issues resulting from international labour migration, the
economies of APEC and their future development provide an area of very
special interest. APEC2
includes amongst its member economies the world’s
two largest exporters of labour, namely Mexico and the Philippines, as well
as the world’s three largest destinations for permanent migration, namely,
the United States, Canada and Australia. It includes economies, which both
import as well as export labour and economies which have passed through
the “turning point” or transition from a labour exporting to a labour
importing country. It also includes the world’s most populous economy, the
People’s Republic of China, which still exercises strict controls on labour
migration, a situation, which could change dramatically in the foreseeable
future. APEC, including as it does all the major economies in the fastest
growing dynamic economic region in the world, is also ideally placed to
provide an answer to the growing debate on whether globalisation will
accelerate or slow down the present labour migratory pressures.
KEYWORDS:
Labour, APEC, International migration, human development.
JEL: N/A.
Published:October 1996
An essential component of a programme for structural readjustment
is a reform of the taxation system so that it supports the basic thrust of the
reform package. Although the system of taxation in Pakistan is supposedly
based on the principles of equity and has a progressive character it has not
actually functioned in this manner. This is so because the system has
evolved as a result of changes made at different moments in time in
response to the exigencies of the government’s revenue needs and the
pressures exerted by different lobbies. The attempt to use the taxation
system to serve a variety of social and economic objectives has created
distortions and made the structure rather complex and non-transparent,
thereby weakening its potency as a revenue generation instrument, while
adding unnecessarily to costs. The structure is, therefore, characterised by
direct taxes not being paid by those who should be paying them, indirect
taxes being largely paid by those who are otherwise considered too poor to
pay taxes and subsidies and exemptions being cornered by those who should
not get them.
KEYWORDS:
Taxation, Pakistan, Taxation System, government, revenue.
JEL: N/A.
Published:October 1996
No greater disappointment for Pakistan’s foreign policy since the
break up of the Soviet Union has been the inability to benefit from
increased trade and traffic with five Central Asian Republics (CARs). The
continuing civil war in Afghanistan has blocked land routes while
neighboring countries such as Iran and Turkey have surged ahead with
strengthening economic links with Central Asia.
KEYWORDS:
Central Asia, Pakistan, CAR, Central Asian Republics, Soviet Union, US, Nazarbayev.
JEL: N/A.
Competition Policy and Democracy in Pakistan
Shahid Amjad Chaudhry
Published:October 1996
This paper argues that competition policy has focused exclusively on
the productive and financial sectors which has consequently seen periods of
extreme concentration of assets by the private sector, nationalisation and
subsequent privatisation and de-regulation. However, the political momentum
generated from the nationalisation moves in industry and finance has resulted
in complete government control through nationalisation of the education
sector which has had adverse consequences for human resource development.
Public administration has also deteriorated as a result of expansion of the
nationalised sector and consequent diversion of economic rents to public
administrators. The challenges facing the economy are to increase
competitiveness and reduce rent seeking through eliminating trade barriers,
privatisation and de-regulation in the production, finance and education
sectors which are only possible in democratic environments and which
reinforce the democratic process itself particularly through human resource
development. An important dilemma relates to the infrastructure and energy
sectors where issues of privatising natural monopolies and cartels raise
questions of institutional capacity in regulating these sectors.
KEYWORDS:
Competition, Democracy, Pakistan, development, human development.
JEL: N/A.