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Published:July - Dec 2000
Efficiency of financial markets implies that prices fully reflect all
available information rapidly and in an unbiased manner. Thus, market
prices should provide an unbiased estimate of fundamental value.
Despite strong empirical evidence supporting this theory, there are
questions about its validity. In recent years, a significantly large volume of
empirical research has been conducted to show predictability of asset returns
using publicly available information. This is popularly referred to as the
anomalies literature. These studies used different explanatory variables ranging
from fundamental to technical factors and showed evidence of market
inefficiency. The results indicate that returns exhibit trends of momentum in
the short to medium term and reversal in the long term
KEYWORDS:
Market efficiency, theoretical framework, economics.
JEL: N/A.
Institutional Failure, State Failure or the Failure of ‘Civil’ Society? The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Sector in Pakistan
S. Akbar Zaidi
Published:July - Dec 2000
With only half of Pakistan’s rural population provided water
through government sources, many observers may well be led to believe that
this is a clear case of government failure. Yet, such conclusions ignore the
way development thinking has changed over time. Currently, the new way
of providing infrastructure and social services relies increasingly on
communities, NGOs and the private sector, with the role of government
considerably curtailed. In the Rural Water Supply and Sanitation (RWSS)
sector, it is the Uniform Policy which now dominates planning and
implementation Unfortunately, succumbing to donor pressure, an illdevised Policy has been approved for the sector which requires prerequisites
which are just not available. A socially sensitive engineering department,
and organised and active communities, which are the cornerstone of the
Uniform Policy, do not exist. Hence the failure of the new thinking in the
RWSS sector. While institutional failure and government sclerosis may be
amongst the more critical causes of failed service delivery, it may perhaps
be more instructive to analyse such institutions in a broader political
economy perspective, where reasons for the failure of the state as much as
of ‘civil’ society, may provide more useful answers.
KEYWORDS:
Rural water supply, institutions, public health, public health engineering, Pakistan.
JEL: N/A.
Motives of Foreign Firms in Pakistan
Mohammad H. Akhtar and Peter J. Buckley
Published:July - Dec 2000
To date no study has been made to explore the FDI motives of
foreign firms in Pakistan. An attempt has been made to rectify this position
through a survey of both wholly- and majority-owned multinational
enterprises (MNEs) in the economy. Market size and growth variables appear
to be the most cited reasons for FDI by MNEs in the sample. The use of
exploratory factor analysis (EFA) also reinforces the significance of market
size as the motive for FDI in Pakistan. The other underlying factors
produced by the EFA are: expansion of business, low input prices, desire to
lower the transaction costs and psychic distance.
KEYWORDS:
Foreign Direct Investment, FDI, multinational enterprises, MNEs, Pakistan.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 2000
The genesis of setting International Labour Standards lies in the idea
that the issues related to labour and social conditions are not merely matters
of state concern. The objective of establishing the International Labour
Organisation in 1919 was to undertake joint international action to improve
labour conditions world wide along with achieving several inter-related
motives. The preamble and the first Article of the ILO’s Constitution gives
expression to these ideas by the following statement:
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan, labour laws, ILO, labour standards, child labour, minimum wage.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 2000
In a rapidly changing global economy, small enterprises are
increasingly a force for national economic growth. Since the 1970s, SEs and
the entrepreneurs who drive them have received serious attention by
planners, multilateral agencies and governments the world over. Yet there is
the need for the management of the environment at the macro level to
facilitate the growth of the SE sector. There is a need for setting up and
managing institutions and networks which support directly, indirectly,
formally, informally, the growth business at the regional and national level.
This also calls for the development of entrepreneurs and their team,
development of the organisation and the business.
The engine of change in all the new economies has been the small
and medium enterprises (SMEs) but the growth of the sector was not a
response to problems of economic crises of the 1970s and 1980s but it has
been observed as a trend that emerged as a wave of change. Hence the
chaos and scramble to move according to the trend. The other notable
contributing factor for the emergence of Small Enterprises (SEs) is the IT
business industry and the worldwide trend towards the service industry
sector.
KEYWORDS:
Developing countries, SME, support infrastructure, development.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 2000
S. Akbar Zaidi, Issues in Pakistan’s Economy, Oxford University Press,
Karachi, 1999. 462 pp. Price: Pak Rs. 450/-.
In the last five decades, Pakistan’s economy has, as they say, gone
places. Undoubtedly, this economy is much more broad-based, with
increases in productivity in all sectors, incomes (even if nobody believes it),
trade, infrastructure, social sectors. Living standards and consumption levels
and patterns are more diversified than those in the early years, though the
benefits are unevenly distributed. Such disparity and imbalances created
additional complications because of a rise in expectations, which is
invariably faster than production capacity and income increases. Developing
countries, soft societies as these are, must face problems emerging from the
resulting frustrations and frictions.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan, economy, distribution, economic situation.
JEL: N/A.
The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: An Econometric Analysis
Mohammad Hanif Akhtar
Published:Jan - June 2000
This study contributes to an understanding of locational determinants
of FDI in Pakistan. Although there exists a great deal of literature in this area,
there is hardly any evidence of such a study in the case of Pakistan. Economy
level analyses are carried out to explore the determinants of FDI through
multivariate regression analysis. The results of the multivariate regression
analyses reveal that market size, relative interest rates and exchange rates are
the major determinants of FDI in Pakistan. The variables such as market
growth and political instability were consistently insignificant in the analyses.
However, mixed findings were revealed by the variables such as consumer
goods imports and the political regime in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS:
Locational determinants, consumer good imports, market development, transnational corporations, foreign direct investment, FDI, Pakistan.
JEL: N/A.
Significance of the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Sector in Pakistan and Assessment of its Employment Potential
Shahid Amjad Chaudhry
Published:Jan - June 2000
Definitions: In this paper it is proposed to use the definition of selfemployed, small scale (2-9 employees), medium scale (10-99 employees) and
large scale (100 employees and above) to discuss the issues relating to the
Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector in Pakistan. The national
pension (regulated through the Employees Old Age Benefit Institution
Legislation) and health insurance (The Provincial Social Security Institutions
Legislation) is applicable to institutions with 10 or more employees and
provides a natural cut off point between the small scale and medium and
large scale sectors. The cut off between the medium and large scale at 100
workers is also appropriate.
Sources: Major sources of data were the: (i) The Census of Establishment
1988; (ii) The Labour Force Survey 91-92; (iii) The Report of the National
Manpower Commission 1991; (iv) The Employment and Management
Situation in Pakistan (ILO) 1997 and (v) The Economic Survey 1997-98. A
large number of other sources were also used as required and these are
indicated wherever possible.
KEYWORDS:
SME, Pakistan, structure of employment, urban employment, rural employment, employment potential.
JEL: N/A.
Uruguay Round Agreement: The Interface Between Anti Dumping and Competition
Kishwar Khan and Sarwat Aftab
Published:Jan - June 2000
All the provisions of the Uruguay Round Agreements have a bearing
upon competition policy, since the international framework governing trade
determines the extent of competition in the national markets. Apart from
the fundamental provisions of GATT Articles I (MFN treatment), III
(National Treatment) and X (Transparency), there are numerous specific
WTO provisions which are relevant in varying degrees to competition2
• GATT Article VI and the WTO Agreement on Antidumping which
involves concept of injury, treatment of price discrimination, public
interest, etc;
• GATT Article XVI and the WTO Agreement on Subsidies and
Countervailing Measures such as concept of injury;
• Agreement on TRIMs; requiring the elimination of deletion
programme and local content requirements;
• Agreement on TRIPs involving anti-competitive practices in
contractual licenses, etc.
KEYWORDS:
Uruguay agreement, WTO Agreement on Antidumping, GATT, anti dumping, competition policy.
JEL: N/A.
On the validity of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
Hassan Naqvi
Published:Jan - June 2000
One of the most important developments of modern finance is the
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of Sharpe, Lintner and Mossin.
Although the model has been the subject of several academic papers, it is
still exposed to theoretical and empirical criticisms.
The CAPM is based on Markowitz’s (1959) mean variance analysis.
Markowitz demonstrated that rational investors would hold assets, which
offer the highest possible return for a given level of risk, or conversely assets
with the minimum level of risk for a specific level of return.
KEYWORDS:
Capital asset pricing, CAP, equilibrium, single-period maximisers, empirical tests, asset pricing theory.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 2000
An active area of investigation in finance literature is to explore the
existence of a pattern in stock returns. A predictable pattern is evidence
against market efficiency. Even if the pattern does not seem to affect the
stock returns directly, it can provide useful clues to investors concerning
their investment decision.
One of the significant patterns identified is the day of the week
effect which implies that stock returns are not distributed identically across
the days. For example, in the U.S. capital market, rates of return on
Mondays tend to be negative while those on Fridays tend to be high. Cross
(1973), French (1980), Gibbons and Hess (1981), Keim and Stambagh (1984)
and others consistently observed lowest returns on Mondays, termed as the
‘Monday effect’.
KEYWORDS:
Equity markets, capital markets, stock returns, liberalisation, Pakistan, trading.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 2000
In a world of multiple causes and effects, looking for black and
white is turning a blind eye to limitless shades and colours created at
diverse intersections. Any particular phenomenon is shaped by historical and
cultural specifications interacting in a complex way. Putting these into neat
categories across sharp divisions hampers the possibilities of knowledge that
can be formulated at limitless points and interstices. Traditional Western
philosophical thought was constructed around dualities and dichotomies that
imposed “homogeneity and identity upon the heterogeneity of material”
(BenHabib: 1992: 208). Post-structural epistemology involves attention to
diversity, plurality and relations of power. It offers possibilities by opening
spaces for voice/s, and provides a framework to position the ‘subjects’.
According to Gaby Weiner, two aims of post-structuralism are:
KEYWORDS:
Postmodernism, poststructualism, metanarratives, discourse formations.
JEL: N/A.
Developed Countries’ (DC) Buyers Apply Higher Levels of Power over the Exporters from A Country such as Pakistan: A Perceptual Study
Muhammad Ehsan Malik
Published:Jan - June 2000
The power aspect in conceptualising importer-exporter interaction is very critical, but few studies are available concerning this issue in the context of export distribution channels. This article explores the power-related dimension of importer-exporter interaction.
An effort has been made to discern the pattern of perceptual differences between a number of importer-exporter pairs. It has been found that broadly speaking, the importer exercises higher levels of power over the exporter rather than vice-versa. But the perceptual differences between the importer and exporter do not follow a systematic pattern. Research efforts have significant implications for the exporters’ community, generally in developed and particularly in developing countries such as Pakistan.
KEYWORDS:
Power, behavioural concepts, distribution channels, behavioural paradigms, power framework, developing country.
JEL: N/A.
Economic Policies Continuation: A Critical View of the Eighth Plan 1993-98
Pervez Tahir and Sara Fatima
Published:Jan - June 2000
Traditionally, five year plans suggest an indicative set of policies to
achieve medium-term targets. Operarionalisation of these policies, however,
takes place through annual plans and budgets, formulation of trade and
monetary policies and fiscal measures deemed necessary and announced during
the course of a year, the so-called mini-budgets. In recent years, while five
year plans have increasingly been seen as analytical frameworks for consistency
rather than tight blueprints for disciline, there have been demands, especially
from the private sector, that economic policies should be announced for a
medium term. Underlying this shift of emphasis are the profound changes that
have occurred in economic organisation and management in the country as
well as the broad sweep of the forces of rapid globalisation. Of the total fixed
investment in Pakistan today, over 60 per cent originates in the private sector.
Only a decade ago, the private sector share was well below 50 per cent.
Similarly, foreign investment used to be an insignificant component of foreign
inflows. It stood at over a billion dollars for three years in a row in the
nineties. The degree of openness of the economy has also increased
significantly. Exports and imports alone constitute one-third of the GDP. The
impact of liberalised financial flows is in addition.
KEYWORDS:
Policy continuity, five year plan, Pakistan, investment, governance, institutions.
JEL: N/A.
Economic Theory and the Explanation of Poverty
Sikander Rahim
Published:Jan - June 2000
This article is an attempt to explain why poverty has persisted to a
great extent in Pakistan, despite sustained growth of national income, and
to review two publications dealing with poverty and social development,
“Social Development in Pakistan: Annual Review 1999, Social Development
in Economic Crisis”, published by the Social Policy and Development
Centre, (SDP) and “Human Development in South Asia, 1999: The Crisis of
Governance”, published by the Mahbub ul Haq Human Development Centre
(HD).
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan, poverty, policy, neo-classical theory, labour, income distribution.
JEL: N/A.
Published:Jan - June 2000
S.M. Burke and Salim Al-Din Quraishi, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali
Jinnah, his personality and his politics, Karachi, Oxford University Press pp
412 Rs. 495/-.
A convincing vindication of the Quaid’s Conversion from Ambassador of
Hindu-Muslim unity to founding father of Pakistan.
A book which most Pakistanis have been waiting for for the past five
years or so, has at last been published by The Oxford University Press,
Karachi (1997) as part of their Jubilee Series. A dispassionate study of the
Quaid’s life and his personality illustrates that he was a luminary in three
different walks of life. Firstly, as one of undivided India’s renowned legal
practitioners; secondly, one of it’s leading legislators and, thirdly, as one of
it’s leading politicians. It is universally recognised that the Quaid attained
not only world stature, but won a permanent place in world history.
Through his dynamic and inspiring leadership, he not only won
independence from the then British colonial rule, but had the sole
distinction of altering the world map by carving into existence the largest
Muslim state of its time in the comity of nations – bigger than the United
Kingdom and France put together. It is the role of a leading politician
which this latest publication principally deals with.
KEYWORDS:
Book Review, Quaid-i-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Hindu-Muslim.
JEL: N/A.
Lessons of Survival in Managing Economic and Banking Crises
Abdul Raoof Butt, Abdul Raoof & Mehmood-ul-Hassan
Published:July - Dec 1999
Pakistan is enduring a serious economic downturn and facing the
probability of the collapse of the banking and financial systems. The growth
outlook is meek and risk of default is hanging over the head of the nation as
a sword. Banking and financial institutions and economic systems of Pakistan
like that of ASEAN and other crises hit countries, suffer from bad loans,
political interference, corruption, declining exports, budget and trade
deficits, internal and external debts, crashes of stock exchanges, currency
mismanagement, and double digit inflation. While 'survival of the fittest’ is
ever a self-evident truth, the lessons of the rise and fall of nations are
important for survival. In order to meet the challenge of survival, it may be
crucial to learn the underlying causes that accounted for and understand the
strategies and reforms that attempted to manage the economies of the
countries suffering from the crises.
KEYWORDS:
Banking crises, economic crises, financial systems, sustainable growth patterns, economic systems, Asia, Europe.
JEL: N/A.
An Assessment of Basic Education under the Social Action Plan in Pakistan
Shahrukh Rafi Khan
Published:July - Dec 1999
Educational expenditure as a percentage of GDP has indeed been
protected and over the first phase of SAP (1993-1996) has increased by about
0.2 per cent of GDP. However, despite SAP protection, it declined to the preSAP level for 1998-99. While there is evidence that, in some aspects, the
gender and regional gaps have closed, the poorest continue to be excluded
from schooling, the rural female income gap in schooling has widened and, if
the poor do attend, they are the most likely to drop out. Also, net enrollment
rates for boys and girls actually declined over the first SAP period.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan, Social Action Plan, SAP, education, poverty strategy, gender, rural enrollments (sic).
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 1999
In this age of globalisation, multiple pressures are intensifying for the
under developed and developing countries. It is a struggle for economic
survival, where the larger fish will eat up any small fish not clever enough to
learn the rules of the game. In this market oriented competitive world,
management development has increasingly become linked with economic
output. Additionally, education is no more just an intellectual exercise. It is
compulsively being recognised as a large sector of human and financial
resources, requiring strategic management and a purposeful development of
the concerned personnel for quality and effectiveness.
KEYWORDS:
Management development, organisational theory, education, educational institutions, organisational development.
JEL: N/A.
Published:July - Dec 1999
This paper is divided into three sections. The first section goes over
the major developments in consumer choice theory1
over time and contrasts
the approaches of Marshall, Hicks and Samuelson. In the second section is
an inquiry into the nature of utility and a hypothesis is developed in the
Marshallian tradition. The hypothesis is built on the grounds that utility is
not a homegenous concept as is conventionally believed. The last section is
concerned with identifying some theoretical and philosophical implications
of the hypothesis for economics.
KEYWORDS:
Marshall, Hicks, Samuelson, consumer choice theory, revealed preference theory.
JEL: N/A.