A large proportion of women in Pakistan engage in home-based production rather than wage employment in the public space to generate an income. This article provides an overview of the literature on the role of access to finance and women’s decision-making power (at the household level) on the likelihood of business creation and growth by women. The literature shows that finance has little impact on business and household outcomes; this suggests that other constraints are at play when it comes to women setting up an enterprise or making business decisions. This overview shows how self-control – risk aversion and present biasedness – can inhibit business investment. Household members may also ‘capture’ a woman’s financial resources, including business loans or savings, and put them to unproductive use. Further, social and cultural norms may dictate whether setting up an enterprise is seen as an ‘appropriate’ activity for women. Against the backdrop of several government and private initiatives to promote enterprise, exploring these issues provides us with important insights into how female-run businesses can be encouraged and supported.
KEYWORDS: Entrepreneurship, microfinance, credit constraints, household decision-making, norms.

JEL: J16, D14, 012, P34, P36.

Recognizing that Pakistan faces premature deindustrialization, this paper seeks to explain the phenomenon. The country experienced wild swings in industrialization during the 1950s and 1960s. The period 2001–10 was characterized by fairly strong growth, followed by contractions in other periods. Pakistan’s manufacturing sector is dominated by clothing and textiles exports. Periods of manufacturing growth were associated with pro-manufacturing and import substitution policies, while slumps were characterized by deregulation and a relatively high exchange rate. The evidence shows that the relative stagnation of manufacturing (regardless of the policies implemented) can be explained by the lack of a dynamic industrial policy targeting technological catch-up and leapfrogging. Moreover, where rents were distributed in the form of incentives, there was no emphasis on monitoring and appraisal.
KEYWORDS: deindustrialization, industrial policy, technological upgrading, Pakistan.

JEL: L52.

At a time of rapid technological advancements in every field, Pakistan must develop a comprehensive strategy for harnessing science and technology to promote economic growth on a sustained basis. In recent decades, successful economies have moved away from factor accumulation models of economic growth to productivity led growth that is underpinned by technological advancements and innovations. Using the endogenous growth theory as a framework of analysis, the paper will provide a macroeconomic perspective on the importance of technology and innovation for sustainable economic growth. We argue that public policy must be geared to generate robust growth by encouraging investment in research and development (R&D) and human capital. The paper will conceptualize the role of technology in the process of economic growth and identify policy areas that can be instrumental in promoting technological modernization and innovations. The paper will also survey some illustrations from Pakistan’s telecommunication industry.
KEYWORDS: Policy, innovation, economic growth, technology, telecom, Pakistan.

JEL: O14, O32.

The Lahore School of Economics and the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) conducted a unique business confidence survey of firms in March 2015. The objective of the survey was to determine industry-specific trends as well as firms’ perceptions of general macroeconomic trends. In 2016, the Lahore School and LCCI conducted a second business confidence survey in which they asked a sample of firms about the same issues as well as their level of innovation and technological upgrading. In this paper, we focus on the results of the innovation and technology component of the 2016 survey. We perform an aggregate analysis across firms to see if they have innovated and upgraded their technology. Next, we focus on the impact of innovation on exports and domestic sales to gauge whether firms reporting higher exports had innovated more. Finally, we look at each sector (manufacturing, services and retail) in turn and analyze the levels of innovation and technological innovation in each.
KEYWORDS: Innovation, technology, macroeconomic trends, business confidence survey.

JEL: O14, O11.

Pakistan’s lack of industrial progress over decades should be cause for concern about the future. The goods the economy produces competitively are the typical goods that yield so little income that they are only exported by economies that have low wage labour. They are much the same manufactures now as during the 1960s and have been kept competitive by keeping wages down through repeated devaluation. Income per head will rise slowly, at best, if the economy does not learn how to produce goods that yield more income, and that means acquiring the up to date technical knowledge needed to be competitive from the foreign producers who produce such goods. But that is knowledge obtained through R&D and is not provided freely, least of all to would-be competitors. Pakistani firms can try to do their own R&D, but, even with public sector collaboration, they cannot catch up with the established foreign firms, which continue to do their R&D and have more money, experienced staff and facilities. The two possibilities are to attract foreign direct investment and for Pakistani firms to insert themselves into the production processes of foreign firms. Experience shows that the first, though it has worked well in several countries, can be ruled out for the present; there has been no FDI in Pakistan for making exportable manufactures. But economies like South Korea and China acquired the technical knowledge they needed through subcontracting and joint ventures with American, European and Japanese firms and moved on from there. There is no realistic alternative and task ahead is to determine what has to be done to realize it.
KEYWORDS: Science and technology, R & D, productivity, innovation, Pakistan.

JEL: O14.

Numerous public announcements are made regularly in Pakistan about moving towards a knowledge economy. These appear to be wishful thinking in the absence of any coherent understanding of the role of technology and its spillovers as major drivers of development and growth as well as lack of clarity about the manner in which science and technology are organized in Pakistan. Pakistan has not really been able to manage the major organizational changes brought about by the techno-information revolution of the 21st century. Its competitiveness is falling, organizational changes are slow and workforce skill levels are inadequate – all of which have stalled productivity and innovation. Pakistan faces a serious risk of deindustrialization unless the dynamics and disruptive nature of modern technology are better understood and embedded as a key pillar of public policy in order to enhance productivity and innovation. This article attempts to define the nexus between technology and entrepreneurship and show how it differs from scientific research. It also examines the role of public policy in promoting productivity growth and entrepreneurship through better policies in technology management.
KEYWORDS: Productivity, growth, public policy, technology, Pakistan.

JEL: O39.

This paper estimates the aftermarket performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange. The evidence confirms that IPOs generate statistically significant abnormal returns in the short run, which indicates that underwriters initially underprice IPOs when analyzed using a short time horizon. However, when using longer time horizons to estimate abnormal performance, the results indicate that IPOs underperform in the long-run. There is an apparent dislocation between the initial valuation set by underwriters and the premium paid by the market for these new issues. The market sentiment that causes this temporary disequilibrium eventually fades and the market reprices the newly issued shares. We conduct an extreme bounds analysis to test the sensitivity and robustness of 16 explanatory variables in determining the long-term performance of unseasoned newly issued shares. The results indicate that the long-term investment ratio, industry affiliation, market-adjusted abnormal returns, financial leverage, return on assets, IPO activity period, the aftermarket risk level of unseasoned issues, and the post-issue promoter’s holdings variables significantly affect IPOs’ aftermarket performance. Theoretically, the overreaction hypothesis, ex-ante uncertainty hypothesis and window-of-opportunity hypothesis best explain IPOs’ aftermarket performance in this study.
KEYWORDS: Initial public offering, underpricing, underperformance, extreme bounds analysis.

JEL: G32, G14, G23.

This study examines the impact of remittances on school enrollment and the level of education attained among children aged 4–15 years in Pakistan. It uses a nationally representative survey, the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey for 2010/11. The migrant network variable at the village level interacting with the number of adults at the household level is used as an instrument for remittances. The results of the IV probit model show that children from remittance-receiving households are more likely to enroll in school. The marginal impact of remittances on school enrollment is larger for girls and for rural households. Hence, remittances help reduce regional and gender disparities in child school enrollment in Pakistan. The IV censored ordered probit model is used to investigate the impact of remittances on children’s grade attainment. The estimated impact is negative and significant, except for urban children, lowering the probability that a child will move to a higher grade.
KEYWORDS: Child education, school enrollment, educational attainment, remittances.

JEL: O15, I25.

This study examines the behavioral aspect of Pakistan’s energy crisis by comparing electricity consumption in the public and private sectors. Specifically, we compare consumption patterns of electricity across a sample of student hostels at two public sector universities and privately run student hostels. In addition, we collect household data for a sample of students at Quaid-i-Azam University (QAU) in Islamabad and compare their average electricity consumption with that of the public sector university hostels. We find that the latter’s average consumption of electricity is significantly higher than among private hostels and households. In assessing the moral hazard problem of the public sector in this context, we test the energy conservation behavior of QAU students and the university administration. The results show that students are largely indifferent to conserving electricity, while the administration pays little attention to the use of energy-efficient lights and equipment.
KEYWORDS: Electricity consumption, public sector, private sector, moral hazard, conservation of electricity, organizational inefficiency.

JEL: H83, D00, D12, D03, D04.

This study uses data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist index to examine the impact of financial sector reforms on the efficiency and productivity of Pakistan’s insurance sector over the period 2000–09. Our results indicate that the sector is cost-inefficient, with an average score of 58 percent – an outcome of the inappropriate use of inputs. The Malmquist productivity index performs better, indicating an improvement in total factor productivity of about 3 percent on average. The second-stage Tobit regression analysis shows that large firms are relatively inefficient from an allocative perspective as they are unable to equate the marginal product of inputs with their factor prices. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that private firms are more efficient than public firms in the nonlife insurance sector. The empirical findings suggest that a more competitive environment, diversified products and innovative technology could improve the productivity of insurance firms in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS:

JEL: D22, C14, G22.

Bangladesh has experienced phenomenal growth in its readymade garments (RMG) sector and become the world’s second-largest RMG exporter after China. Given the country’s robust position in this context, many observers expected that the SAFTA revisions under Phase II – which allowed Bangladesh’s apparel products duty-free and quota-free access to the Indian market – would lead to a surge in Indian imports of apparel and RMGs. However, this did not materialize. This study analyzes Indo–Bangladesh trade in RMGs in order to determine the underlying reasons for this anomaly. Using Balassa’s concept of revealed comparative advantage, the study establishes the strong comparative advantage enjoyed by Bangladesh though the results also show a lack of effective trade complementarity between the two countries. Overall, the findings suggest that India enjoys economies of scale in RMG production – as Bangladesh’s competitor, India has artificially maintained a secure regime through a combination of domestic export incentives and nontariff measures to restrain imports.
KEYWORDS: Bangladesh, India, comparative advantage, liberalization, RMGs, SAFTA.

JEL: F14, F15, F13.

Although numerous studies have explored the relationship between education and women’s health-seeking behavior, the role of education – and the pathway through which it affects health-seeking behavior – remains unclear. We use data from the Pakistan Demographic Health Survey for 2006/07 on women aged 15–49 who had given birth at least once in the last three years to determine which socioeconomic factors affect maternal healthcare use, and how the effect of women’s own education is transmitted to their health-seeking behavior. We implement two estimation techniques: (i) a two-step instrumental variable linear probability model, in which women’s exposure to mass media is used as an instrumental variable for their health knowledge; and (ii) a community fixed effects model. The results of the analysis indicate that predisposing factors – such as women’s level of education, their children’s birth order, their spouse’s level of education, type of occupation, and empowerment – are important determinants of maternal health-seeking behavior in Pakistan. The results also confirm the important role played by women’s own health knowledge, independent of their education, on their maternal healthcare use.
KEYWORDS: Maternal health, education, health knowledge, instrumental variable analysis, mass media exposure, Pakistan.

JEL: C26, I15, I29.

This study employs the Richardson model to investigate the presence of an arms race between Pakistan and India during the period 1972–2010. Using the generalized method of moments approach, we find that the grievance term for the Pakistan model is positive while that for India is negative. Both countries’ defense spending in the previous period is negatively related to the change in their own defense spending due to the economic or administrative incidence of an arms race. Moreover, the defense or reaction coefficients in the specified model determine the presence of an arms race between the two countries. The signs of these coefficients are positive in accord with the classical Richardson model, suggesting that an arms race does indeed exist between Pakistan and India.
KEYWORDS: Arms race, defense spending, generalized method of moments, grievance term, reaction coefficients, Pakistan, India.

JEL: C45, H56.

Islamic mutual funds and socially responsible mutual funds are two similar asset classes that incorporate negative screens in their portfolio selection process to filter out stocks that fail to meet certain ethical, social, environmental, and/or religious standards. This study uses a single-factor capital asset pricing model and an adjusted sample consisting of 224 Islamic funds and 573 socially responsible funds to examine their excess risk-adjusted returns, market volatility, and systematic risk. It also gauges the market-timing abilities of the fund managers concerned in relation to both Islamic/socially responsible and conventional market indices. While there are some differences in the risk factors of Islamic funds and socially responsible funds, both are associated with lower risks and have the same market-timing ability.
KEYWORDS: Islamic mutual funds, capital asset pricing model, returns, systematic risk, market volatility.

JEL: G19.

The objective of this study is to identify the significant determinants of firms’ dividend policy across different sectors in Pakistan. Using data on 75 companies listed on the KSE 100 index for the period 2005 to 2010, we find that profitable firms tend to give higher dividends than loss-making firms. Firm size has a negative relationship with the dividend payout ratio and dividend yield, indicating that, the larger the firm, the more likely it is to retain cash to pay off its liabilities. Growth in sales is positively related to dividend yield, whereby an increase in sales leads to higher profitability and higher dividend payments. Ownership concentrated within institutions (such as banks and insurance companies), the management/family, and individuals has a negative impact on the payout ratio. Institutional owners are more likely to retain excess cash and thus omit dividends, individual owners prefer capital gains to dividends given the tax deduction, and management- or family-owned firms avoid dividends, which lead to increased agency problems. Finally, the market-to-book ratio is negative and highly significant: firms with better growth opportunities rely on internal financing more than on generating external funds.
KEYWORDS: Market to book, market cap, dividend payout, ownership structure, Pakistan.

JEL: G32, G30, G35.

This study develops a methodology for the comparative analysis of industry-specific export incentives. The impact of different export incentives extended to the textiles sector in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh is analyzed using industry-level data for the years 2001–11. Our findings show that Bangladesh operates a highly export-oriented regime – of the three countries, the value of its export incentives is highest. The study suggests that, in order to maintain its competitiveness in textile exports, Pakistan needs to enhance its export incentives, particularly for value-added textiles.
KEYWORDS: Exports, export incentives, fiscal incentives, exchange rate, textiles sector, Pakistan.

JEL: F13, L50, F00.

This study evaluates a Punjab Government development project titled “Customized Lending Program for Furniture Cluster at Chiniot.” The project was implemented by the Punjab Government’s Small Industries Corporation at a total cost of PRs 40 million: the sum of PRs 100,000 was loaned to 400 small and medium furniture manufacturers in Chiniot, to be repaid in 22 equal monthly installments with a grace period of two months. The socioeconomic impact of the loan was determined from data collected through a survey. Overall, the project was deemed unsuccessful: on average beneficiaries’ income fell due to negative factors such as power outages and the fact that uniform loans were made to small and larger manufacturers.
KEYWORDS: Punjab development project, Chiniot, impact evaluation, furniture industry, microfinance, Pakistan.

JEL: O10.

As the Pakistani economy has stabilized over the last few years, the focus has turned towards restarting economic growth. This is a challenging task because of the structural problems faced by the economy as well as the global economic slowdown. This means that Pakistan’s policymakers must move beyond the traditional growth strategy of export led growth and think of ways of expanding the country’s manufacturing base. Keeping this in mind, the organizers of the Eleventh Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy chose the topic of “Pakistan as a Regional Manufacturing Hub – Prospects and Challenges.” The objective of the conference was to provide academics and policy makers with new ideas on growth strategies in the context of a changing global environment.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, budget deficits, Pakistani economy, circular debt.

JEL: N/A.

Professor Robert Wade, Professor of Political Economy and Development at the London School of Economics, delivered the keynote address for the 11th Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy. This is a talk about the dramatic change in the understanding of what constitutes “development” that occurred in the West and in much of the developing world after the mid 1980s. Before that time it was widely understood that development meant rising overall “prosperity” and that heavy investment in infrastructure and in industry were key drivers. After the mid 1980s the content of development came to be “extreme poverty reduction”, “humanitarian assistance”, “primary school education”, “primary health care”, “anti-corruption”. Why this change? I argue that it was due to several factors: (1) the end of the Cold War, and the resulting change in the geopolitical strategy of Western states led by the US; (2) the increasing strength of “post-materialist” values in developed countries and their translation into the content of Western development thinking (eg World Bank, USAID, DfID); (3) business interests in the West; and (4) continued Western control of inter-state organizations that are meant to be organizations for the world (eg World Bank). There are now small signs of change in favor of investment in production and infrastructure, thanks partly to the recent emergence of inter-state “by- pass” organizations not controlled by Western states (such as the New Development Bank, the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank).
KEYWORDS: Development, production, western countries, policy.

JEL: O29.

In this paper we explore how development finance institutions (DFIs) helped to promote industrial growth with active role of public sector in emerging market economies – Korea, China, India, Malaysia, Brazil, Mexico, Turkey. The DFIs provided long-term credit financing which led to structural transformation of their economies. These countries have succeeded in spectacular fashion at this transformation over the past four decades but Pakistan did not; why? There has been an endless debate concerning the role of the public sector vis-à-vis the private sector in promoting economic growth and it continues in the present. I begin by asserting that historically public sector has been in the forefront in starting and sustaining economic growth. This not a leap of faith, rather this has been the experience of most emerging economies. They have gone through reforms, liberalization and structural adjustment, ushering in market-based policy regime and opening up foreign trade and capital flows. Within this framework, the role of DFIs has been exemplary, an assessment I reach based on published researched evidence but from field experience in the East Asian economies during 1980s, where newly established industries, in part supported by World Bank (WB) funded DFI lending, nurtured industrial transformation. When the industries of advanced countries began leaving in droves, pressure mounted to end industrial financing. It is a fascinating saga. We need to discover why Pakistan did not succeed in achieving the same industrial transformation the occurred in emerging economies. This failure occurred in spite of similar types of DFI lending over a long period and an almost manic devotion of government to the role of public sector. Reforms and privatization is still going on; but industrial transformation remains as elusive as ever.
KEYWORDS: Industrial growth, development finance institutions, economic development, Pakistan.

JEL: O10.