Anwar, Mumtaz, The Political Economy of Foreign Aid to Pakistan, Nomos Verlagsgesellscharft, Baden-Baden, 2007, pp. 141, Price not mentioned. There are an increasing number of studies that analyze the discrepancies between the stated and the actual motives behind giving aid to developing economies. Given this divergence the subsequent effectiveness of aid is also questioned, paving way for debates on whether aid should be given at all. An analysis of the former question of motives is imperative to understand whether aid will have a positive impact on economies with weak institutions, political instability and economic decision-making backed by the need to preserve the status quo.
KEYWORDS: Book review, Pakistan, Political economy, foreign aid.

JEL: N/A.

The Lahore School’s Third Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy, in May 2007, reflected on the economic reforms that have been implemented since the 1990s and on the prospects for additional reforms in both the near and long-term. A number of respected economists and other experts provided evaluations of the government’s past efforts, and offered advice on the direction that future reform efforts should take. The Conference focused on a few key areas which included Governance Reforms, Industrial Competitiveness, Monetary, Fiscal and Financial Sector Policies, Exchange Rate and Trade Policies, and Female Labor Force Participation. The key findings of the papers were as follows:
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Lahore School, third, annual conference, Pakistan economy, management.

JEL: N/A.

Though government reforms are viewed as important for most developing countries, the rationale for these reforms must be clearly understood if they are to be correctly designed and implemented. From an international perspective, government reforms in Pakistan must be developed to integrate Pakistan into a larger global economy and should be based on the lessons learned from other developing countries. From the domestic perspective, reforms are necessary for the Pakistani government to adapt to the changing domestic environment. The reforms must focus broadly on the Federal, Provincial and District governments, on civil service reform and on business process re-engineering. This paper details the rationale for government reform in Pakistan, focuses on critical areas of reform, and provides a framework for the proposed reform approach.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, government reform, long term vision.

JEL: N/A.

Though Pakistan’s exports have increased significantly, analyses have shown that Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness is limited to a narrow range of products. This paper looks at the factors affecting Pakistan’s competitiveness ranking and relates these various factors to trends in Pakistan’s total factor productivity. In addition to looking at the components of Pakistan’s competitiveness ranking, this paper details the steps required for Pakistan to increase its global industrial competitiveness.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, industrial, competition, exports, strategy, competitiveness.

JEL: N/A.

The issue of global competitiveness is critical for developing countries. This paper looks at the drivers that influence industrial competitiveness and provides a comparison of these drivers for Pakistan, India and China. The analysis shows that Pakistan lags behind China and India in most of the main components of the industrial competitiveness index. The analysis also presents a series of micro and macro level policy recommendations aimed at increasing Pakistan’s industrial competitiveness.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, global competitiveness, macro level policy, micro level policy.

JEL: N/A.

Though the Pakistani economy had recently achieved some level of macroeconomic stability, at present there are fears that this stability could be threatened. This paper looks at monetary and fiscal reforms over the last decade and focuses on the areas that need to be addressed on both fronts. In particular, the paper looks at how present monetary policy needs greater clarity and how fiscal policy needs to focus on raising public savings and diversifying the sources of borrowing.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, economy, monetary policy, fiscal policy, macroeconomic stability.

JEL: N/A.

The financial system of Pakistan has undergone a sea-change owing to reforms which were implemented over a period of a decade and a half, 1992-2006. The financial system has moved towards promoting the efficiency of financial intermediation while maintaining stability and fostering growth of the economy. Financial repression of the previous decades has receded though it has not been eliminated. Now a shift is warranted for the reform and restructuring of sectoral or sub-sectoral finance which has to be activity based, not institution based. Pakistan’s financial system has entered the post-reform era with all its potentials, complexities and challenges. How well the financial system performs in this era depends on how sustainable the financial regime is and how resilient it is in coping with change and financial shocks, both domestic and global.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, financial repression, restructuring, reforming, financial system.

JEL: N/A.

In this paper an attempt has been made to review the financial restructuring process and its importance for economic growth and macroeconomic stability. The main focus is on the financial restructuring efforts undertaken by the government of Pakistan since 1990. We also analyze the impact of financial restructuring by using various financial indicators. The overall results suggest that the financial industry in Pakistan is showing remarkable and unprecedented growth. Unlike 1990, the performance of the financial sector is much better today. After the successful completion of first generation reforms, the introduction of second generation reforms is required, which will help to further strengthen the financial system and transfer the benefits of the first generation reforms to society.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, restructure, financial sector, first generation reforms.

JEL: N/A.

This paper is primarily aimed at assessing the significance of the exchange rate on Pakistan’s foreign trade. It estimates the Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate (ERER) and exchange rate misalignment for Pakistan using annual data from FY78 to FY06. The Engle Granger cointegration technique is used for the estimation of ERER depending upon various macroeconomic fundamentals as recommended by Edwards (1994). The results of the study are also used for the forecasting of ERER and misalignment up to the year 2010. The results of the study reveal that ERER is determined by variables such as: a) terms of trade, b) trade openness, c) net capital inflows, d) relative productivity differential, e) government consumption, and f) workers’ remittances. The error correction term points to the gradual convergence of the real exchange rate towards the long-run equilibrium level which suggests that the prevailing Pak Rupee exchange rate has not deviated from the ERER and captures economic fundamental trends. Moreover, Pakistan’s foreign trade would depend significantly upon the state of economic fundamentals in the future. Improved economic fundamentals are likely to support trade besides paving the way for enhanced inflows of capital and financial receipts.
KEYWORDS: Equilibrium Real Effective Exchange Rate, ERER, Pakistan, external trade.

JEL: N/A.

This study is based on the premise that agriculture remains the key issue in all reform efforts of Pakistan and the Doha Round of trade talks has strategic significance for the second round of the country’s farm sector reforms. It is argued that although there are differences among the individual developing countries, the majority have a comparative advantage in agricultural production and removing farm sector export subsidies and tradedistorting, domestic subsidies is their common concern. Evidence is provided to support the view that the Uruguay Round negotiations on agricultural subsidies are not a done deal, because although signed by the members, the Agreement on Agriculture is not ‘ratified’ by the recent farm bills of the developed countries which continue to defy economic logic and the WTO (World Trade Organization). On the other hand, the evidence provided from Pakistan shows that the governments of developing countries are not fighting the farmers’ cause since they are poorly managing agricultural policy and have been overly compliant with respect to the Uruguay Round ruling on reducing farm subsidies and increasing trade liberalization. The analysis shows that although the developed countries stand to gain far more from the liberalization of trade in agricultural commodities than the developing countries, the handful of farmers in developed countries are the stumbling block to the regeneration of world trade. It is argued that to alleviate world poverty, the developed countries need to demonstrate their willingness to gradually remove both the absolute value of subsidies provided to their farmers and the tariff and non-tariff barriers that protect agriculture. Finally, the author maintains that at world trade forums, the developing countries have exhibited poor representation due to lack of leadership.
KEYWORDS: Agriculture, Pakistan, developing countries, economic reforms.

JEL: N/A.

Factor endowments and cross country differences create regional disparities among states. The disparity in sizes between the Chinese and Pakistani economies can lead to the creation of trade patterns that can positively or negatively impact the latter’s economy. The present paper attempts to analyze the pros and cons of forming a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with China given the size, structure and trade patterns of Pakistan’s existing economy. It also deals with the crucial questions of: Can the formation of an FTA with China benefit Pakistan? Will trade liberalization under an FTA with a neighboring country like China spur Pakistan’s trade and growth? Looking at trends and trade patterns of Pakistan, the potential of Pakistan’s existing economy is analyzed to enhance interregional trade and export diversification by further deepening cooperation with China. In the light of this analysis, the paper also outlines a number of recommendations to extract the maximum benefit for Pakistan’s economy from this recently signed FTA with an old economic partner, China.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, China, FTA, Pak-China, trade patterns, export diversification.

JEL: N/A.

This paper seeks to identify the major determinants of female labor force participation in Pakistan, specifically with reference to rural and urban areas. Limited dependent variable techniques (Logit and Probit) are utilized to determine the factors affecting female labor force participation. This analysis uses data taken from the PSLM (Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey, 2004-05) which measure individual and household characteristics of females between the ages of 15-49. Empirical results suggest that age, educational attainment and marital status have significant and positive effects on female labor force participation (FLFP). When women belong to the nuclear family and have access to vehicles, they are more likely are they to participate in economic activities, whereas a large number of children and the availability of home appliances reduces the probability of FLFP. The results imply that reducing the child care burden on females and facilitating educational attainment would lead to a higher labor force participation rate for females in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: FLFP, Pakistan, gender, female labor force, participation, educational attainment.

JEL: N/A.

This paper examines the empirical relationship between financial development and economic growth for high income countries. The study focuses on both indirect finance and direct finance, separately as well as jointly. Applying the methodology of Nair-Reichert and Weinhold (2001) for causality analysis in heterogeneous panel data, two sets of results are reported. First, the evidence regarding the relationship between financial development and economic growth from a contemporaneous non-dynamic fixed effects panel estimation is mixed. Negative and statistically significant estimates of the coefficient of the inflation and financial development interaction variable indicate that financial sector development may even be harmful to economic growth when inflation is rising. Second, in contrast with the recent evidence of Beck and Levine (2003), heterogeneous panel causality analysis applied on a refined model indicates that there is no definite evidence that finance spurs economic growth or growth spurs finance. Most of our findings are in line with the Lucas (1988) view that the importance of financial matters is overstressed. The only exception is the case of activity in stock markets where our result supports the Robinson (1952) view that finance follows enterprise.
KEYWORDS: Financial development, financial matters, panel data, economic growth.

JEL: N/A.

The demand for M2 in Pakistan is positively influenced by real GDP and currency appreciation and negatively influenced by the domestic interest rate and the foreign interest rate. These results confirm international capital mobility and currency substitution. The Box-Cox transformation indicates that the log-linear function cannot be rejected while the linear function can be rejected at the 5% significance level. The log-linear form of the demand for M2 shows a small value of the mean absolute percent error and performs better in the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests than the linear form.
KEYWORDS: Currency substitution, capital mobility, Box-Cox model, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests.

JEL: E41.

The question of whether devaluation of the currency affects output positively or negatively has received considerable attention both from academic and empirical researchers. A number of empirical studies have supported the contractionary devaluation hypothesis using pooled time series data from a large number of heterogeneous countries. Since the effects of devaluation on output and the price level may not be uniform across all developing countries, the empirical results can not be generalized for all countries. In addition, almost none of the empirical studies used to test the contractionary devaluation hypothesis separate the effects of devaluation from import prices. Thus, a country specific study is needed that separate the effects of devaluation from the import price effects. This paper uses a VEC model to analyze the effects of the exchange rate on output and the price level in Pakistan for the period 1975-2005. Our analysis shows that devaluation has a positive effect on output but a negative effect on the price level. Thus, the evidence presented in this paper does not support the contractionary devaluation hypothesis for the Pakistani economy.
KEYWORDS: Devaluation, currency, exchange, Pakistan, economy.

JEL: N/A.

This paper has analyzed the economic and political justification, trade impact and extent of antidumping measures initiated by Pakistan. Screening models for anti-predatory behaviour, Herfindahl-Hireshmann Index (HHI) for concentration and descriptive statistical measures are used to test the antidumping (AD) behaviour. The results are consistent with the earlier literature that AD duties have both a trade reduction and diversion effect. It is evident from the results in half of the cases studied that an economic rationale has been followed in the application of AD duties in Pakistan. Although the number of AD cases is limited, Pakistan has emerged as one of the intensive users of AD, relative to its total import share. It is also evident from the fact that intensive use of AD reduces trade and increases trade barriers, similarly, trade diversion reduces the chances of trade reduction. The key message emerging from this research is that trade diversion persists and in some cases trade diversion is substantial and it offsets the effect of AD measures on named countries to the benefit of non-named countries.
KEYWORDS: Antidumping, Pakistan, AD behaviour, trade reduction.

JEL: N/A.

In this paper, we have addressed a key issue in the current debate on economic development: the effect of trade liberalization on poverty. We investigated the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty levels both in the long run as well as in the short run for Pakistan. To measure trade liberalization, we used standard indices of trade openness, financial openness and public intervention in the country, while the head-count ratio was used for poverty measurement, and GDP per capita controlled for economic growth. Applying the Johansen Co-integration Techniques and Error Correction Method, for long-run and short-run analyses respectively, our findings suggest that trade liberalization has a cumulative effect on poverty reduction in the long-run but not in the short run in Pakistan. Lower poverty is associated with low taxation and high foreign direct investment, while trade openness does not have a significant impact on poverty reduction, particularly in the short run, in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Trade, Liberalization, Poverty.

JEL: I31.

This paper investigates the efficiency of the Karachi stock exchange (KSE) with corrections for thin trading and non-linearity as suggested by Miller, Muthuswamy and Whaley (1994). Daily, weekly, and monthly data on stock prices from December 1991 to May 2003 have been used, with three non-overlapping periods (December 1991 to May 1998; May 1998 to September 2001; and September 2001 to May 2003) and one combined period (May 1998 to May 2003). The results indicate that the Karachi Stock Market is efficient for the overall period, the three sub-periods, and the combined period in linear and non-linear behavior after making adjustments for thin trading. The same result is observed when the efficiency test is conducted on weekly and monthly data after adjusting for thin trading during the overall study period.
KEYWORDS: Karachi Stock Exchange, KSE, efficiency, market, Pakistan.

JEL: N/A.

The Policy Analysis Matrix (PAM) methodology was used to determine the level of economic efficiency and competitiveness in the production of rice crops in Pakistan’s Punjab. The methodology was also used to assess the effect of policy intervention on the production of Basmati and IRRI rice crops. The results indicate that an expansion of the production of Basmati rice can lead to an increase in exports. The production of IRRI in Pakistan’s Punjab is characterized by a lack of economic efficiency implying inefficient use of resources to produce the commodity. On the other hand, both Basmati and IRRI rice production in the Punjab demonstrate a lack of competitiveness at the farm level for the period under analysis. The analysis shows that the prevailing incentive structure affected farmers negatively. A negative divergence between private and social profits implies that the net effect of policy intervention is to reduce the farm level profitability of both rice production systems in Punjab. The results highlight the need for removing existing policy distortions in the structure of economic incentives to enhance economic efficiency and to attain farm level competitiveness in rice production.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Punjab, Policy Analysis Matrix, PAM, policy intervention.

JEL: N/A.

Six carp and carp based culture technologies were selected to examine the sustainability of supplementary feed-based aquaculture through availability of domestic feeds compared to the total requirement in Bangladesh. The study covered seven districts of Bangladesh with a sample size of 376. It was found that farmers used a good number of feeds (more than 35) for the selected technologies but they maintained no standard doses for them. There were important differences among the prices of different feeds and other inputs used for different technologies in different parts of the country. Prices of all inputs were found to be increasing and this increase has been greater in recent years as compared to previous years. Though all the technologies were found to be profitable, the feed situation was not satisfactory. Except for rice polish, the supplies of other local feeds were unable to meet the national demand. If this situation persists and no measures are taken to secure the local feed supply, the present development of supplementary feed-based aquaculture will become dependent on imported feeds and would not be sustainable in the future. This study strongly suggests that the authorities should handle the matter with proper attention, considering its significant impact in the economy of the country.
KEYWORDS: Bangladesh, feed-based aquaculture, sustainability, technologies.

JEL: N/A.