The slow pace of progress of the South Asian regional trade integration process under SAARC has prompted many countries to seek bilateral agreements. Sri Lanka is a case in point with bilateral agreements with both India and Pakistan. While the former is acknowledged to have yielded positive results, the latter has remained of limited interest. Given that India remains the single most important trading partner for almost all other South Asian countries, regionalism in South Asia essentially entails bilateral market access to India. The current evidence suggests that India has attempted to do so via a host of bilateral and regional arrangements, but that the emerging nature of that integration process is unlikely to be an ‘inclusive’ South Asian regional grouping.
KEYWORDS: Economic integration, South Asia, trade liberalization.

JEL: F15, R10, F10.

Pakistan and India are the two largest economies in South Asia with very low levels of bilateral trade. This has been the result of border disputes and political tensions, but also of inward-looking import-substitution growth strategies. Trade (including official and unofficial) between the two countries stood at around US$ 2.5-2.6 billion in 2007/08 but it could potentially be as much as US$ 5-10 billion or two to four times its current levels. The Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) has led to substantial improvements in political relations over the last 5 years and trade relations have shown positive outcomes as well. This paper recommends that the process be strengthened further by restarting the stalled CDP, Pakistan granting most favored nation (MFN) status to India, continuing to reduce impediments to trade and trade logistics, and perhaps even considering the possibility of a free trade agreement (FTA) with India.
KEYWORDS: Bilateral trade, Pakistan, India, competitiveness.

JEL: F19, 024.

This study analyzes the role of human capital and job attributes, i.e., supply-side determinants, in determining wages in a period of trade liberalization. Using the Mincerian earning function and based on data from the Labor Force Surveys, we construct a model to estimate various wage determinants and compute the rates of return to different educational qualifications and relative occupational wage shares for the years 2005/06 and 1990/91. The estimated earning functions for 1990/91 and 2005/06 are compared to investigate whether individual characteristics—such as gender, job location, nature of job, educational qualifications, and different occupations—cause the wage gap to widen or contract under conditions of trade liberalization. The mean and quantile regression approach is used for estimation purposes. Our key findings postulate (i) an increasing gender pay gap, (ii) a higher wage premium to the highest educational qualification, and (iii) more or less stable relative wages for different occupations over time. In addition, wage dispersion across occupational groups appears more pronounced in 1990/91 than in 2005/06, implying a declining trend in the difference in wage distribution across occupations. Our findings suggest that trade liberalization cannot be presumed to pose a threat to the labor market in the wage context. However, exposing labor to an open market has not increased the productivity and skills of labor or helped reap the potential benefits of trade liberalization.
KEYWORDS: Trade liberalization, wage determination, human capital, Pakistan.

JEL: J31, F16.

Poverty is a complex phenomenon based on a network of interlocking economic, social, political, and demographic factors. An understanding of the extent, nature, and determinants of rural poverty is a precondition for effective public policy to reduce poverty in rural Pakistan. The present study attempts to analyze the impact of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households on poverty, using primary data collected in the village of Betti Nala in Tehsil Jatoi, district Muzaffargarh in southern Punjab. We have used two distinct approaches: (i) a poverty profile, and (ii) an econometric approach in our empirical analysis. The results show that household size, dependency on household, participation, landholdings, and number of livestock have a significant impact on poverty incidence. Our final conclusion is that efforts should be made to improve socioeconomic factors in general and demographic factors in particular to alleviate rural poverty in remote areas of Pakistan, while land should be allotted to landless households.
KEYWORDS: Poverty, households, Punjab, Pakistan.

JEL: C10, A13, J19.

This study is based on data from a cross sectional survey of 120 farms located along the Mithaluck irrigation canal in central Punjab. The data collected were analyzed using (i) the residual imputation method, and (ii) the change in net income method, and applied to a linear programming model to estimate the value productivity of irrigation water. Returns to irrigation varied by farm size and location on the canal, but were generally found to be very high relative to the estimated delivery cost of irrigation water. The results of this study could prove useful in determining the economic feasibility of various resources for supplementing water and improving delivery and application efficiencies.
KEYWORDS: Irrigation, value of water, residual imputation, Punjab, Pakistan.

JEL: C20, A10.

Mangoes are one of Pakistan’s most important fruits; the country is the world’s fourth largest producer and exporter of mangoes. Integrated markets are those where price signals are transferred from one to another, allowing physical arbitrage to adjust any disturbances in these markets; integrated markets are thus a sign of efficiency. From this viewpoint, we investigate domestic integration among ten major mango markets, i.e., Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Gujranwala, Sargodha, Karachi, Hyderabad, Sukkur, Peshawar, and Quetta employing Johansen’s cointegration approach and error correction model. Data on monthly wholesale prices data (PRs/100 kg) were obtained from the agricultural and livestock marketing advisor, Government of Pakistan. The results of the study confirm the presence of integration among major mango markets in Pakistan. These markets were able to adjust for 16 to 68% of disequilibrium in one month, implying that it takes almost two to six months to remove any disequilibrium and to move back to long-run equilibrium. The Granger causality test shows that the Karachi market has bidirectional causality with Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Hyderabad, and Sukkur, and a unidirectional relationship with the rest. An impulse response analysis was also conducted to check the stability of these markets given a standard error shock to the Karachi base market.
KEYWORDS: Mangoes, cointegration, causality, Pakistan.

JEL: C01, A10.

This study explores the long-term dynamic relationship between equity prices and monetary variables for the period June 1998 to June 2008. Monetary variables include money supply, treasury bill rates, foreign exchange rates, and the consumer price index. The data have been examined using multivariate cointegration analysis and Granger causality analysis. Johansen and Juselius’ multivariate cointegration analysis indicates the presence of a long-term dynamic relationship between the equity market and monetary variables. Unidirectional Granger causality is found between monetary variables and the equity market. In the case of money supply, a positive relationship supports the liquidity hypothesis. Impulse response analysis indicates that the interest rate shock has a negative impact on equity returns in the Pakistani equity market. Exchange rates also have a negative impact on equity returns in the short run. However inflation has little impact on returns in the equity market. Variance decomposition analysis suggests that the interest rate, exchange rate, and money supply shocks are a substantial source of volatility for equity returns. The contribution of a monetary shock to the equity returns ranges from 4% to 16% over different time lags. Similarly, the VECM also confirms the presence of a short-term relationship between monetary variables and equity returns. This state of affairs demands that monetary variables be considered an important factor in determining stock market movements. Policymakers should be more vigilant and careful in designing monetary policies as it has a direct impact on cash inflows into the capital market and on the stability of the capital market.
KEYWORDS: Monetary variables, equity, causality, Pakistan.

JEL: G12, E31.

This study examines the impact of the quality of corporate governance, as measured by a specially constructed corporate governance index, on the expected cost of equity calculated using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) approach. A total of 114 listed companies were investigated to analyze the relationship between the two variables for the period 2003 to 2007. The quality of corporate governance was measured by assigning weights to a set of related variables, although these variables were also considered individually. We used descriptive statistics, a correlation matrix, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) approach, and fixed effect model to test the panel data collected. We found a negative relationship between managerial ownership and board size with the cost of equity, and a positive relationship between board independence, audit committee independence, and corporate governance with the cost of equity. These results could be due to the transition phase through which Pakistani companies are passing after the promulgation of the Code of Corporate Governance in 2002.
KEYWORDS: Corporate governance, cost of equity, Pakistan.

JEL: G30, G34.

Yunus, Muhammad with Alan Jolis, Banker to the Poor, The Story of Grameen Bank, Aurum Press Ltd, London, 1998, ISBN 978-1-85410-924-8, pp 313, Price: UK Pounds 8.99. It is the firm conviction of Muhammad Yunus, winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, that poverty can be eradicated and put away in museums once and for all. As the author puts it, the bottom line of his belief system is that ‘poverty does not belong in a civilized human society. It belongs in museums’. This is what motivated this stalwart to establish the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh, the pioneer in the field of micro-finance for the poor. Today, Grameen Bank can boast that it provides 2.5 billion dollars of micro-loans to over two million rural poor in the country.
KEYWORDS: Book review, Muhammad Yunus, Grameen Bank, microfinance, micro-finance.

JEL: N/A.

This study evaluates the ability of the Fama and French Three Factor model to explain a cross section of stock returns in the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). Following Fama and French factor approach, we sorted six portfolios by size and book to market. The sorted portfolios were constituted to represent stocks from each and every sector of KSE. Using Daily returns from January 2003 to December 2007, the excess returns for each portfolio were regressed on market, size and value factors. Our findings, in general, supported the notion of the three factor model. The three factor model was able to explain the variations in returns for most of the portfolios and the results remain robust when the sample was reduced to control for the size effect. Our findings are consistent with most of the studies that suggested the validity of the three factor model in emerging markets. These results warrant for the inclusion of size and value factors for valuation, capital budgeting and project appraisals, thus, having substantial implications for fund managers, analysts and investors.
KEYWORDS: Size Premium, Value Premium, Market Premium, Three-Factor Model.

JEL: G11, G12, G14.

This study attempts to discern the relationship between economic and financial development in Pakistan for the period 1973 - 2006. Vector error-correction modeling is used to identify the causality between economic and financial development and the exogeneity of the variable(s) in the model. These error correction terms have been derived from Johansen’s multivariate cointegrating procedure. Results indicate that, in the long run, economic development causes financial development. Furthermore, the real output variable is found to be exogenous. Thus, financial development is seen to be ineffective in terms of economic development determination in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Economic Development, Financial Development, Causality.

JEL: O16, C59.

This study seeks to determine the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC) and economic growth (EG), using annual data from 1971 to 2007. In our empirical analysis, we implement a bounds-testing approach to co-integration and an augmented form of the Granger causality test to identify the direction of the relationship between these variables both in the short and long run. Our findings suggest bidirectional causality between EG and EC in the short run; in the long run we find unidirectional causality from EG to EC. EC does not lead to EG in the long run because higher energy prices (oil prices) increase the cost of business, leading to a negative effect on EG. Additionally, when energy prices fluctuate, they create uncertainty that also affects economic growth. The study recommends direct investment in local energy resources.
KEYWORDS: Asset pricing, CAPM, financial literature, review.

JEL: N/A.

Trade is presumed to act as a catalyst to economic growth. This paper reinvestigates the export-led growth hypothesis in Pakistan by using annual time series data on exports, imports, terms of trade, and the labor force participation rate as explanatory variables and gross domestic product (GDP) as the dependent variable for the period 1971-2005. The study uses the more comprehensive and recent bounds test or autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) proposed by Pesaran et al (2001) to examine the existence of short-run and long-run relationships between exports and economic growth, which is crucial in designing policy to enhance trade-related potential in Pakistan. The results indicate that exports, labor force, and imports have a positive effect on growth, while the terms of trade has a negative effect. The proxy for trade liberalization has a positive impact on economic growth. Finally, the chief finding of this study is that the hypothesis of export-led growth in the Pakistan economy is supported in both the short and long run. Economic growth in Pakistan is accompanied by fluctuations in exports and imports both in the short and long run, but the labor force participation rate has a negative effect only in the short run. The terms of trade has the same effect in the short and long run.
KEYWORDS:

JEL: C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods, F - International Economics.

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between intellectual capital efficiency and the firm's profitability. The importance of intellectual capital (IC) and the related philosophy of the knowledge economy have captured the attention of researchers and business enterprises in the World Trade Organization (WTO) era. IC is widely recognized as a tool that is critical to running a successful business in a highly competitive environment. Various models have been introduced to measure the numerous facets of IC, including the Skandia navigator, Tobin's Q, and value added intellectual coefficient (VAIC). This article examines the role of IC efficiency in the firm’s net profit using the VAIC developed by Ante Pulic (1998). It also investigates its correlation with the firm’s profitability, using regression models. A five-year data set for Lahore Stock Exchange Index companies (LSE-25) was obtained from audited financial reports, and used to calculate human capital, structural capital, and capital-employed efficiency of companies in different industrial sectors. The results obtained using multiple regression analysis supports the argument that IC efficiency contributes significantly to the firm's profitability. Practically, IC efficiency can be used as a benchmark and strategic indicator to direct financial and intellectual resources in the right direction, i.e., to enhance the firm’s ultimate corporate value. It can also be developed as a management tool to create a sustainable comparative advantage in the competitive global knowledge economy. The study is a pioneering attempt to measure the impact of IC efficiency on net profit using cross sectional time series data.
KEYWORDS: Knowledge Economy, Intellectual Capital, Value Added, VAIC, LSE-25.

JEL: C22, C59.

The available evidence in Pakistan suggests that inflation is a monetary phenomena. This paper examines the relationship between the determinants of inflation and its volatility by using monthly data for 1990:M1-2007:M5. The determinants of inflation are estimated by a VAR analysis, which shows that inflation, the interest rate and money supply move together. A VAR model assumes constant error variance. We relaxed this assumption by employing an ARCH/GARCH model and conclude that inflation is volatile in nature. For measuring the qualitative nature of the inflationary process we used an EGARCH model. It confirms that the time effect model is significant. It also suggests that in the first four months of the calendar year, the inflationary shock is negative and it can, therefore, hamper growth.
KEYWORDS: Inflation, Volatility, Pakistan, Money Supply, Interest Rate.

JEL: E31, E51, C01.

Greif, Avner, Institutions and the Path to the Modern Economy: Lessons from Medieval Trade. Cambridge University Press, 2008, pp. 452, Price £19.99. In a comparative study of the late medieval European and Muslim worlds, Greif analyzes the effect of institutions—especially those that facilitated impersonal exchange, such as trade—on the performance of modern economies. His argument rests on the premise that past institutions have an effect on consequent ones, and he contributes the disparity in performance of the Muslim and European economies to their distinct institutional trajectories. The book comprises several parts. It defines institutions in great detail; provides a comparative account of institutions in the medieval European and Muslim worlds; and applies a theoretical, analytical, and empirical framework—particularly game theory—to studying institutions.
KEYWORDS: Modern Economy, European and Muslim worlds, theoretical, analytical, empirical framework.

JEL: N/A.

In April 2008, the Centre for Research in Economics and Business (CREB) at the Lahore School of Economics hosted the Fourth Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy on the theme, “Ensuring Stable and Inclusive Growth.” The Centre’s director, Naved Hamid, invited a number of prominent speakers including academics, economists, current and former government officials, and other experts to present a combination of research and policy papers, which can be broadly grouped under two major headings: i) Pakistan’s macroeconomy and ii) Poverty and inequality in Pakistan. These topics were selected because of their timeliness, given the increasing macroeconomic pressures facing the country, in particular those coming from the exchange rate and inflation, and the impacts on poverty that could result. The papers presented at the conference are summarized below:
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, CREB, Lahore School, fourth, annual conference, Pakistan Economy, inclusive growth.

JEL: N/A.

The article provides an overview of the Pakistani economy and addresses various sectoral issues currently being faced by the economy. The first and the most critical problem highlighted concerns the protection of the poor. Other issues highlighted relate to education, healthcare, housing, taxation and energy. This paper discusses how the current account deficit needs to be tackled by higher tariffs, exchange rate adjustments, and possible export duties. The paper also discusses the need to reduce the cost of production for industry and upgrade governance through an emphasis on the local government system. Regarding public sector investments, the paper explains how the government needs to be transparent about the Public Sector Development Programme, and allow projects to be executed by the provinces.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Balance of Payments, Fiscal Deficit, Education, Health, Poverty, Public Investment.

JEL: I32, D33.

As a result of policy inaction in addressing structural issues over a protracted period and a wrong set of economic priorities followed over the past several years, Pakistan’s economy faces a grave set of challenges. Among the many issues, which range from high inflation to power deficits and water stress, the most immediate and pressing is the need to restore fiscal order. While pressure on the coalition government to reduce the economic hardship of the electorate is understandably intense, the policy response needs to balance the alleviation of palpable hardship in the short term, with the ability to provide sustained benefits over the longer term. Given the sharp constriction in available fiscal space, adopting a policy course in the short run that raises expectations of “relief” may not be wise, in either political or economic terms. In the longer term, however, it is a misconception to view the available choices in purely binary terms, i.e. that “macroeconomic stability” (a much-maligned term, loath to politicians not just in Pakistan) is mutually exclusive to “pro-poor” agendas. Raising revenues by broadening the tax base meaningfully, in conjunction with rationalizing bloated government/public sector expenditures can free fiscal resources, which can be diverted to targeted subsidy programs. Ignoring macroeconomic stability, on the other hand, will eventually also undermine the ability of the government to influence economic growth, as growing fiscal and monetary constraints limit its ability to run appropriate policies. As experienced in the 1990s, this will slowdown both investment as well as growth, hurting the poor.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Macroeconomic Stability, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy.

JEL: E62, E52.

Public policy is aimed at increasing the efficiency of the industrial sector in Pakistan. This paper looks at four issues. Firstly, it looks at the adjustments the new government needs to make to restore macroeconomic balance. Secondly, it discusses the global changes that have occurred in the industrial sector and how these could be incorporated into Pakistani policy making. Thirdly, I have briefly discussed the history of policies implemented in Pakistan. Lastly, I have discussed the importance of decentralized industrial policy making. This paper also conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of industrialization on poverty. It is concluded that industrial development in Pakistan has historically been heavily dependent on government intervention and there was poor growth in this sector as compared to other Asian economies. The paper also presents five proposals aimed at achieving higher growth in the industrial sector.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Public Policy, Industry, Competitiveness, Poverty.

JEL: F44, D33, H32, L12, L13.