This paper looks at the issue of federalism in Pakistan. It begins with an analysis of the conceptual paradigms of federalism and goes on to examine the history of federalism in Pakistan. The paper goes on to discuss the reasons for the failure to develop an organic federal covenant as well as discuss how the 7th National Finance Commission (NFC) Award and the 18th Amendment may be indicative of a paradigm shift. The paper concludes by presenting the way forward for federalism in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Federalism, governance, Pakistan.

JEL: H77, O2.

This paper analyzes Pakistan’s energy sector issues and highlights (i) the importance of the link between energy and the environment, and (ii) the central importance of energy efficiency for high return demand-side solutions to meet the country’s energy needs. The paper argues that energy planning should integrate the external cost of energy use in deciding about the composition of supply: coal, oil, gas, hydropower, renewable, nuclear, and solar. By utilizing external cost estimates made by the European Commission for Europe, and the US National Academy of Sciences, a total cost (external + internal) ranking of primary energy sources for Pakistan is estimated. This estimate is at the low end of the cost spectrum because classic pollutants—sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide—in Pakistan are significantly higher than in Europe or the US. The paper also discusses the experiences of China and OECD countries in increasing energy-wide efficiency. A central lesson emerging from the analysis is that Pakistan will have to significantly increase its energy-related research and development expenditure in order to adequately address its energy sector issues. A quadrupling from 0.25 % of gross domestic product is recommended over a decade.
KEYWORDS: Energy, policy, environment, Pakistan.

JEL: Q48, Q47, Q5.

This paper examines the circular debt problem in the Pakistani energy sector. After presenting the profile of the energy sector in Pakistan, the paper explains why circular debt has emerged in the sector. Two principal reasons are discussed for the circular debt problem: First, consumer tariffs were insufficient to recover the rising costs of power generation and the government (due to fiscal constraints) was not compensating PEPCO for the resulting losses. Second, PEPCO has faced significant problems in recovering dues from consumers. In order to resolve the circular debt problem, sharp adjustments in power tariffs may be required combined with the need by the government to explicitly recognize the costs of power subsidies in the budget.
KEYWORDS: Circular debt, energy, tariff, subsidy, Pakistan.

JEL: Q43, H62, Q48.

This paper looks at the economy-wide demand and the firm level demand for electricity in Pakistan. The economy wide estimation of electricity demand uses panel data from 63 countries from 1998-2008, and finds that the elasticity of demand for electricity with respect to per capita income is approximately 0.69, which implies that a 1% increase in per capita income will lead to a 0.69% increase in the demand for electricity. The firm level analysis uses firm level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Survey for Pakistan and finds that the price elasticity of demand for electricity across all firms is approximately -0.57, which implies that a 1% increase in electricity prices will lead to a 0.57% decrease in electricity demand across firms. Across sectors, the textile sector has the highest price elasticity of demand (-0.81) while the price elasticity of demand for firms in the electricity and electronics sector is the smallest (-0.31). Finally, firm level data is also used to estimate production functions in order to estimate the impact of electricity shortages on manufacturing output.
KEYWORDS: Electricity, demand, industrial, price elasticity, Pakistan.

JEL: Q41, E01, E39.

In this paper, we aim to understand residential electricity demand responses to changes in income, in order to assist policymakers in managing demand for electricity and evaluating tariff increases associated with proposed projects for increasing supply, while minimizing the impact on poverty.
KEYWORDS: Electricity, demand, residential, Pakistan.

JEL: Q41, D12, E39.

This paper discusses the efforts by the Government of Pakistan to implement a General Sales Tax (GST). First, a history of Pakistani tax reform efforts is presented along with the reforms recommended by the National Taxation Reforms Commission. After this, the design and implementation of the GST is discussed followed by an analysis of the political economy and provincial issues that arise in the process of implementing the GST. Finally, the paper discusses various proposals regarding the determination of the base for the GST. The paper concludes that the splitting of the GST by sectors, given the perspective that the 1930’s style sales tax, is not sensible, and the Pakistani formulation is more unstable than the assignment of the GST on goods.
KEYWORDS: Tax, reforms, GST, Pakistan.

JEL: H29.

This paper explores how Pakistan can get out of the low-tax-to-GDP trap and come close to achieving its revenue targets. Examining the trend factors influencing the trend in total and individual tax-to-GDP ratios over a period of twenty years, the paper concludes that partially successful and/or inappropriate tax reforms have put Pakistan in this trap. While highlighting that a period of economic slowdown may not be the best time to make a big push on resource mobilization, the paper presents a strategy which aims at not only enhancing tax revenues but also making the taxation structure more progressive, broad based and balanced.
KEYWORDS: Tax, structure, reform, Pakistan.

JEL: H71, H2.

This paper looks at the Indus Basin Water Strategy for Pakistan. It begins with a historical overview of the Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS), the Indus Basin Replacement Works (1960-1980) and the Indus Basin Salinity Control Efforts (1960-2000). The paper then looks at the IBIS irrigation and salinity control investments that have taken place over the last decade (2000-2010). The paper goes on to look at the present situation of the IBIS as well as discuss an IBIS strategy for the next decade. Finally, the paper discusses supply side and demand management strategies for IBIS. Overall, the paper concludes that Pakistan should focus on (1) Creating Additional Surface Storage, (2) Preserving surface water (particularly through lining canals), (3) Controlling Groundwater and controlling salinity (by discouraging excessive tube-well use), (4) Encouraging general efficiency of irrigation water use (through improved land management techniques), (5) Enhancing yields through improved farming practices, and (6) Fully meeting the environmental concerns of the Indus Delta, river systems and wetlands.
KEYWORDS: Indus Basin, water, strategy, irrigation, Pakistan.

JEL: Q25, Q15.

This article is an attempt to examine the short and long-run relationship between the trade balance, income, money supply, and real exchange rate in the case of Pakistan’s economy. Income and money variables are included in the model in order to examine the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments, while the real exchange rate is used to evaluate the conventional approach of elasticities (Marshall Lerner condition). The bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction models, developed within an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework is applied to annual data for the period 1970 to 2005 in order to investigate whether a long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the trade balance and its determinants. Additionally, variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response functions (IRFs) are used to draw further inferences. The result of the bounds test indicates that there is a stable long-run relationship between the trade balance and income, money supply, and exchange rate variables. The estimated results show that exchange rate depreciation is positively related to the trade balance in the long and short run, consistent with the Marshall Lerner condition. The results provide strong evidence that money supply and income play a strong role in determining the behavior of the trade balance. The exchange rate regime can help improve the trade balance but will have a weaker influence than growth and monetary policy.
KEYWORDS: Trade balance, ARDL, exchange rate, money supply, Pakistan.

JEL: C22, F10, F12, C15.

Using an international dataset on bilateral trade for 137 countries in 2005, we estimate a gravity model to address the question of whether intra-Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) trade is too low and whether the scale of trade at present is accounted for by regional integration or unilateral liberalization. The results of the gravity model confirm that intra-regional trade is lower than predicted by the gravity equation. The results also validates the theory that the present level of trade is attributed to regional agreements rather than unilateral liberalization, suggesting greater scope for regional cooperation among ECO member countries.
KEYWORDS: Bilateral trade, economic cooperation organization, regionalism.

JEL: P45, N70.

This paper studies the impact of changes in the external balance of Pakistan. We explain why the economic growth achieved during the past decade was highly dependent on improvements in the external balance. Between 2001 and 2007, Pakistan benefited from an increase in remittances, foreign assistance from bilateral and multilateral sources, and a relatively stable exchange rate. After 2007, this performance came under pressure from external price shocks. The rise in the import prices of petroleum, raw materials and other manufactured goods has the potential to reduce the country’s growth performance, impacting the competitiveness of the economy and threatening the gains achieved during past years. We integrate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a microsimulation model to study the effects of changes in foreign savings and import prices faced by Pakistan. An increase in foreign savings leads to an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. The main sectors facing a decline in exports are textiles, leather, cement, and livestock. In this simulation food and oil prices decline and the factors of production that gain are agricultural wage labor and nonagricultural unskilled wage labor. The increase in import prices of petroleum or industrial raw material leads to a reduction in exports. In this simulation the crop sector is negatively impacted and returns to land and profits to farm owners increase, showing a change in favor of agricultural asset owners, while poverty and inequality increase.
KEYWORDS: Microsimulation, computable general equilibrium, poverty, inequality, balance of payments, Pakistan.

JEL: I32, C51, C81, D58, C82, H22.

A simultaneous-equations model was used to capture the supply and demand functions for Pakistan’s wheat sector at the national level. This model reflects the fact that Pakistan’s domestic wheat supply is priceresponsive and positively affected by the use of nutrient fertilizers. While price appears to be a statistically significant factor on the supply side, it is statistically insignificant on the demand side. Population size appears to be very significant in determining wheat demand. The wheat import supply seems to be influenced by the current world wheat price, current world wheat supplies, Pakistan’s domestic consumption in previous years, and domestic supply in previous years. We recommend that policymakers allow market forces to play a role in the wheat economy in a way that protects producers from adverse market conditions. The availability of various nutrient fertilizers should be central to policies on future inputs use. Work is also needed on wheat alternatives so that the country’s dependence on wheat is eased as much as possible.
KEYWORDS: Wheat, supply and demand, Pakistan.

JEL: Q11, C59.

This study tests the semi-strong form of market efficiency by investigating the reaction of stock prices to dividend announcements. It analyzes cash, stock, and simultaneous cash and stock dividend announcements of 79 companies listed on the Karachi Stock Exchange from July 2004 to June 2007. Abnormal returns from the market model are evaluated for statistical significance using the t-test and Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test. The findings suggest negligible abnormal returns for cash dividend announcements. However, the average abnormal and cumulative average abnormal returns for stock and simultaneous cash and stock dividend announcements are mostly positive and statistically significant.
KEYWORDS: Stock prices, market efficiency, dividend announcements, Pakistan.

JEL: G14.

In many countries, capital markets are often served by multiple stock exchanges, typically with one national or dominant exchange and several regional or satellite exchanges. While multiple exchanges create a competitive landscape, they also lead to fragmented liquidity and diseconomies in operations. This paper examines the role of the Lahore Stock Exchange (LSE) in comparison with the country’s dominant exchange, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), in four areas: (i) market efficiency in processing information, (ii) transaction costs, (iii) contribution to price discovery, and (iv) market integration. A comparative analysis of the exchange performance indicates the two exchanges to be at par in terms of informational efficiency and transaction costs. There is evidence of informational linkages and interdependencies between the two exchanges; the LSE appears to contribute to price discovery and competes to an appreciable extent. Against the background of proposals to merge the country’s three stock exchanges, a major consideration in evaluating public policy is the relative performance of the LSE and its viability as an effective competitor. Eliminating inter-exchange competition by merging the stock exchanges is predicted to lead to higher transaction costs, lower incentives for regulatory compliance, and diminished motivation for promoting capital market development.
KEYWORDS: Stock exchange, demutualization, market efficiency, transaction costs, price discovery, market integration, dually listed stocks, satellite and dominant exchanges.

JEL: G15, G14, G38.

This paper analyzes trade among and the convergence of per capita income for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The extent of trade and its relationship with the magnitude of income convergence is studied among these countries and their trading partners. We use intra-trade convergence and the difference-in-differences approach for the estimations. The results demonstrate that an increase in trade between the groups decreases the per capita income differential. Our results suggest that trade liberalization policies could be effective in achieving convergence. More importantly, we find that the per capita income of our source countries converged more rapidly under post-liberalization regimes than pre-liberalization regimes.
KEYWORDS: Intra-trade, income convergence, per capita income, South Asia.

JEL: C21.

This paper analyzes a range of host country characteristics that determine foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries, using panel data on 72 countries for the period 1970-2008. Keeping in view the endogeneity problem of the chosen host country’s characteristics, the model is estimated using the General Method of Moments (GMM) technique. The analysis shows that gross domestic product (GDP), economic growth, and per capita income positively affect FDI—a result consistent with the market-seeking behavior of multinational corporations (MNCs). Furthermore, we find that remittances have a significant and positive impact on FDI. On the other hand, inflation and the balance of payments deficit have negative effects on FDI. MNCs are attracted to host countries that are outward looking and follow trade-promoting policies. This is confirmed by the positive effect of openness on FDI flows to developing countries. The study also finds that the effect of military expenditures on FDI is negative and significant. Finally, our analysis finds that the real exchange rate has a significantly negative impact on FDI.
KEYWORDS: Investment, panel data, developing countries, FDI, GMM.

JEL: F21.

This study examines the technical, allocative, and economic efficiencies of the cotton-wheat farming system in Punjab, Pakistan. It also investigates the determinants of these efficiencies using a non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Technical, allocative, and economic inefficiency scores are separately regressed on socioeconomic and farm-specific variables to identify the sources of inefficiency using a Tobit regression model. The mean technical, allocative, and economic efficiencies calculated for the system were 0.87, 0.44, and 0.37, respectively. Our results indicate that years of schooling and the number of contacts with extension agents have a negative impact on the inefficiency of cotton-wheat farming in Punjab.
KEYWORDS: Cotton, wheat, economic efficiency, data envelopment analysis.

JEL: D61, C14.

This paper examines the global competitiveness of Pakistan’s fruit exports (dates, mangoes, and oranges), using revealed comparative advantage (RCA). It also analyzes domestic consumption trends among selected fruits grown by major exporters. Our results indicate that Pakistan has a comparative advantage in fruit exports. Comparing the movement in comparative advantage indices for Pakistan with those of its main exporters/competitors demonstrates that Pakistan has a relatively high comparative and competitive advantage in the production of dates and mangoes. The increasing trend of competitiveness in Pakistan indicates that there is potential for higher growth; given that fruit exports are a potential source of higher exports earnings, there is a need to strengthen competitiveness in this sector.
KEYWORDS: Comparative advantage, competitiveness, exports, growth.

JEL: F14, Q18, Q17.

The objective of this paper is to highlight the use of income tax revenue as an indicator of regional development in Pakistan. Initially, we identify a dramatic shift in income tax revenue trends at the provincial level for the period 1992/93 to 2005/06. We develop a simple model of income tax revenue and estimate the relationship between growth of income tax revenue and gross regional product (GRP). Based on the estimated relationship, Punjab appears to have been the fastest growing province during the 1990s, while Sindh shows the greatest level of dynamism in the current decade. This is attributed to high growth rates, especially in large-scale manufacturing during the period, which has a larger sectoral share in Sindh’s economy.
KEYWORDS: Income tax, development, revenue.

JEL: R11, H20.

In April 2009, the Centre for Research in Economics and Business (CREB) of the Lahore School of Economics hosted the Fifth Annual Conference on the Management of the Pakistan Economy on the theme, “Growth, Trade and Development.” The Centre’s Director, Naved Hamid, invited a number of prominent speakers including academics, economists, current and former government officials, and other experts to present a combination of research and policy papers, which can be broadly grouped under two major headings: i) Pakistan’s Growth and ii) Trade and Development in Pakistan. These topics were selected because of their timeliness, given the increasing macroeconomic pressures facing the country, in particular those arising from the exchange rate and inflation, and the impacts on poverty that could result. The papers presented at the conference are summarized below:
KEYWORDS: management, Pakistan, Lahore School, Annual Conference, Pakistan economy, CREB, fifth.

JEL: N/A.