According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Terms of trade, current account, economic growth, recursive VAR, Pakistan.

JEL: C3, F32, F41.

Education is one of the most important means of economic development, and there is consensus among policymakers that it is better to be educated than not. The debate on education is not, therefore, whether it is good or bad, rather it centers on whether the state should intervene in its provision. Public provision of education at the school level is generally considered one of the most important investments for creating social opportunities to help the wider population actively participate in various economic activities. This study investigates whether public spending on education in Pakistan is pro-poor at various levels of schooling. We find that public spending at the primary and secondary level is progressive, while higher education spending is regressive. These results hold at the national and provincial level. Based on these findings, we recommend that the government increase its spending on primary, secondary, and technical education. Higher education, however, should be provided on merit, and the private sector should be encouraged to provide high-quality education.
KEYWORDS: Education, economic, development, Pakistan.

JEL: I25.

This study estimates a set of fixed effects/random effects models to ascertain the long-run relationships between poverty, income inequality, and growth using pooled data from eight household income and expenditure surveys conducted between 1992/93 and 2007/08 in Pakistan. The results show that growth and inequality play significant roles in affecting poverty, and that the effect of the former is substantially larger than that of the latter. Furthermore, growth has a significant positive impact on inequality. The results also show that the absolute magnitude of net growth elasticity of poverty is smaller than that of gross growth elasticity of poverty, suggesting that some of the growth effect on poverty is offset by the rise in inequality. The analysis at a regional level shows that both the gross and net growth elasticity of poverty are higher in rural areas than in urban areas, whereas the inequality elasticity of poverty is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. At a policy level, we recommend that, in order to reduce poverty, the government should implement policies focusing on growth as well as adopting strategies geared toward improving income distribution.
KEYWORDS: Poverty, inequality, growth, pooled data, Pakistan.

JEL: I32, O40.

McCartney, Mathew, Pakistan – The Political Economy of Growth, Stagnation and the State, 1951–2009, Routledge, London and New York, ISBN13: 978-0-415-57747-2 and ISBN13: 978-0-203-81476-5, 2011, pp. 241. This book is, one can assert without a doubt, sui generis, unique in that it provides an entirely new perspective on the development of Pakistan’s political economy. It is a thorough and objective analysis, an eye-opener, and the author leaves no stone unturned.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, development, Growth, capital, political economy.

JEL: N/A.

The Lahore School’s Eighth Annual Conference on Management of the Pakistan Economy took place on 16 – 17 May, 2012 at the school’s Main Campus. The topic of this year’s conference was: “Towards Accelerated Economic Growth in Pakistan: Its Need and Feasibility”. It was attended by the country’s leading economists, Pakistani and foreign academics, and renowned researchers from India, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom, and United States. Some 25 research papers and oral presentations were made during the two days of the conference. The richness of the discussions during the two days of the conference cannot be adequately captured in a short report but, as a record of the salient issues raised, it could be useful for the participants as well as others interested in the subject. Since discussions in different sessions tended to overlap, what is offered here is a composite summing-up rather than a chronological account of the actual proceedings.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Lahore School, Annual Conference, Pakistan economy.

JEL: N/A.

This article attempts to show that a strategy for accelerated growth for Pakistan is both necessary and feasible. Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions are broadly similar to some of its more rapidly growing neighbors. The country’s macroeconomic imbalances and inflation need to be brought down, but the required adjustment does not entail precipitate action, which could further depress the economy. We develop a “Heterodox Scenario,” which shows that macroeconomic adjustments can be phased in over the next few years and will be easier to make if the economy were to grow more rapidly. For accelerated growth to materialize, as a minimum, determined steps are needed to overcome the energy crisis, sharply raise the investment rate—particularly, private investment—and strengthen Pakistan’s competitiveness in the world market. A national strategy is needed toward that end.
KEYWORDS: Growth, inflation, economy, strategy, Pakistan.

JEL: O10, E22.

One hears little about the Planning Commission’s Framework for Economic Growth launched a year ago. This is indicative of its inappropriateness and lack of consideration of Pakistan’s economy or its structures and political economy. The Framework avoids tackling the core issues of taxation, distribution, and equity. It privileges the market and free enterprise over the role of the state, and undermines and dismisses the significant role and contribution of the government and state in promoting growth, particularly at a time when market failure has made economists rethink the role of markets after 2008. By ignoring central issues related to politics and the articulation of power, and of issues that fall in the realm of political economy, the Planning Commission constructs a technicist script that has little value to the messy world of realpolitics.
KEYWORDS: Growth, political economy, Planning Commission, Pakistan.

JEL: O40, O1.

This article discusses the impact of the current stagflation in Pakistan on the labor market and poverty. The paper presents a preliminary explanation of why the labor market and poverty impact of the current stagflation may be far smaller than projected in recent studies, especially for the rural economy. The main conclusions that emerge are that (1) The overwhelming expected negative impact of low economic growth, high double-digit inflation, and crippling energy shortages on poverty and the labor market appear to have been cushioned by the large increase in remittances, rising wages in agriculture and services, and social safety nets; (2) there is, however, no reason for complacency since over 20 million people live in absolute poverty and that the economy remains in deep stagflation, (3) the PSLM (HIES) 2010/11 data should be made publicly available so that it can be subject to more critical analysis and (4) studies on poverty should be based on a close integration of macro-sectoral–micro-factors to fully capture the underlying “poverty dynamics.”
KEYWORDS: Macro-dynamics, economic growth, cycles, Pakistan.

JEL: F43, P46.

This article has a rather modest aim. In contrast to most analyses that abound, it submits that Pakistan’s energy crisis stems primarily from a suboptimal policy and only secondarily from governance issues. This does not mean that governance is not an important issue. With around 20 different organizations involved in the power sector—e.g., WAPDA, PEPCO, PPIB, AEDB, GENCOs, and IPPs—there is much scope for governance failures. In addition, there is much malfeasance perpetrated by political and other interests. Still, since governance mechanisms are significantly shaped by incentive systems and operating policy regimes, we will argue that the problem lies primarily in policy choices made earlier, and focus in particular on two elements of the policy that need to be revisited.
KEYWORDS: Power crisis, policy, governance, Pakistan.

JEL: G30.

Since the 1950s, Pakistan has been trying to industrialize by investing in industries that have low value-added, notably cotton textiles. Here, low value-added means that the export value of the cotton textiles less the value of the raw cotton used to make them was low relative to the cost of the investment needed to make the textiles, i.e., contrary to the usual assumption, cotton textile manufacture was capital-intensive. The cause was the protection of the importing countries. But goods with high value-added in this sense required advanced technical knowledge, which is mostly the proprietary knowledge of the firms whose research and development (R&D) has generated it. Over time, all the production of goods that do not require such technical knowledge has passed to low-wage countries whose mutual competition keeps the value-added low. Since Pakistan cannot compete in high-value-added goods, it must emulate the East Asian economies by collaborating with firms in high-wage countries—i.e., subcontracting them to make simple components—and progress through such collaboration to receiving the knowledge and training to making components with higher value-added.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, textiles, protection, value-added, subcontracting.

JEL: O14.

This study attempts to evaluate exporters’ perceptions of the problems they face in exploiting their full competitive potential in the international market. Using firm-level survey data, we find that a shortage of skilled labor, the energy crisis, institutional rigidities, market imperfections, and weaknesses in physical infrastructure are the key impediments to achieving export competitiveness. Policies geared toward improving the quality of skilled labor, resolving the energy crisis, and reducing transaction costs by improving the institutional and physical infrastructure are key to expanding Pakistan’s exports on a sustained basis.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, export competitiveness, exporting procedures, certifications.

JEL: F13.

This paper identifies the main impediments to investment and industrial productivity in Punjab, which have led to a decline in growth. This is done by analyzing the impediments and constraints to productivity and investment using the World Bank’s 2007 Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) data at the level of Punjab’s seven main industrial zones. This is followed by an analysis of a pilot survey of 100 firms conducted in the Lahore district. Almost 71 percent of the firms surveyed declared electricity to be the most important constraint and macroeconomic stability was ranked as the second-most important constraint. An inadequate workforce, access to raw materials, and corruption were ranked third, fourth, and fifth, respectively.
KEYWORDS: Industry, constraint, Pakistan.

JEL: O10.

In this paper we analyze which factors affect new firm entry and the scale of new firms in the export clusters of Punjab. Our analysis looks at local conditions (such as the degree of concentration in an industry, the employment of firms of that industry already located in a region, the employment of firms of all industries located in that region) and international conditions (such as the real exchange rates of Pakistan’s major trading partners and tariff rates). The results show that more export sector firms will enter highly concentrated industries and that firm entry increases significantly as a result of a depreciation in the trade-weighted real exchange rate, while the impact of changes in trade partner tariffs is not significant.
KEYWORDS: Firm, export clusters, entry, Pakistan.

JEL: F14, D22.

Competitiveness has become a mantra and organizing framework for much government policymaking in Pakistan and beyond. Rarely does anyone question the concept and use of the competitiveness paradigm itself. Krugman (1994) argues that this ”obsession with competitiveness is both wrong and dangerous.” This article draws from Krugman’s work and examines the use (or abuse) of the concept of competitiveness in the context of contemporary Pakistan. We focus on three recent and influential reports on competitiveness in Pakistan by the Asian Development Bank, World Bank, and Competitiveness Support Fund, and agree with Krugman’s negative view.
KEYWORDS: Competitiveness, policy, Pakistan.

JEL: E60.

This article argues that a new growth vent in Pakistan requires tapping into external lucrative markets in a manner that will create multiple entre-ports for growth. Such a growth vent will enable the country to achieve a sustained growth path that is not as susceptible to the political vicissitudes of one mega-growth node. This will be good for regional equity within the country and will also bring new energy to the Indus Basin market. Sustained welfare improvements in this type of regional hub can occur when it transitions from being a transportation hub for goods and energy into a manufacturing hub that creates high-productivity, high-wage jobs in multiple regional growth nodes.
KEYWORDS: Regional hub, trade, GDP, Pakistan.

JEL: F43.

While Pakistani trade with India could give a boost to Pakistan’s economy, there are other neighbors with whom trade could be equally important. We look at this aspect of regional trade and show that promoting trade with the rest of Pakistan’s neighbors could have a significant positive impact on the country’s growth. We show that Pakistan’s trade with these neighbors has grown rapidly over the last 10 years and at present they constitute the largest market for Pakistani exports. We also explain how these exports are not only important in terms of absolute value, they have also contributed to the development of new export products. The overall impact on Pakistan’s economy could well be to raise the trend growth rate for the next decade or so by 2 to 3 percentage points above the historical trend growth rate of 5 percent per annum.
KEYWORDS: Exports, regional trade, Pakistan, China, UAE, Central Asia, Afghanistan.

JEL: F13.

This article analyzes the volume and pattern of India–Pakistan trade given the extent of trade complementarity between the two countries and, in the presence of a restricted positive list of imports from India, the tariff regime and nontariff barriers in the two countries. The study also assesses the impact on bilateral trade of granting most-favored nation status to India, the removal of some of the impediments to trade, and the implementation of the final phase of import tariff reduction under the South Asian Free Trade Agreement. Finally, the article highlights emerging opportunities and possible threats to the process of trade normalization between the two countries.
KEYWORDS: exports, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, Pakistan, India.

JEL: F19.

Bilateralism arises as a “second-best” option when countries seek benefits beyond those of regional approaches to free trade and those of unilateral liberalization. In spite of the regional initiatives for free trade in South Asia along with policy reforms in individual countries, Sri Lanka entered into bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) with India (2000) and Pakistan (2005). In a situation where trade within the South Asian region has been sluggish despite higher economic growth, trade liberalization, and regional initiatives for integration and cooperation, this article examines from the Sri Lankan point of view whether the bilateral FTAs have resulted in above-normal trade performance. The analysis suggests that better performance in bilateral trade cannot be attributed exclusively to the success of the FTAs any more than weak performance can be attributed to their shortcomings. Apart from this, merchandise trade does not appear to have performed in isolation as the extent of overall bilateral connectivity set the groundwork for greater integration. The article confirms that bilateral FTAs that seek reciprocity in integration and cooperation are indeed a “second-best” option, compared to the potential trade performance associated with unilateral liberalization in trading partner countries.
KEYWORDS: Bilateralism, trade agreements, Pakistan.

JEL: F14, F15, F13, F53.

This article discusses how the 7th National Finance Commission award and the 18th Amendment to the Constitution have strengthened the autonomy of the federating units in Pakistan. The former has empowered the provinces by increasing their access to financial resources, but there is the danger that it may increase the consolidated fiscal deficit unless both the federal and provincial governments increase their fiscal efforts and rationalize their expenditures. The 18th Amendment has the potential to change the structure of governance, but has been implemented in such a way that effective decentralization has been at least partially rolled back. For devolution to work in Pakistan, financing and the delivery of devolved services will have to be more effectively organized and managed.
KEYWORDS: Fiscal, devolution, 18th amendment, Pakistan.

JEL: O16.

This article describes the local government system established in the 2001 Devolution Plan and its evolution over the period 2002-07, with a focus on two essential public services, education and health. We believe that the devolution of service delivery functions, delegation of financial powers, decentralization of authority, and deconcentration of executive powers, can, together, lead to better accountability of results and, hence, to improved public service delivery to the poor and marginalized. The Devolution Plan made inroads toward these goals, particularly in education, but their achievement was incomplete due to a number of factors, among those incomplete fiscal decentralization, limited targeting of backward areas, and centralizing tendencies of the provincial departments and civil service. Recommendations are offered on how to further develop the local government system more generally, with an eye towards increasing accountability and improving coordination both across local governments and between tiers. For this, complementary reforms to simplify business processes and revamp human resource management policies are needed; introducing a district level civil service is among the suggested changes. The article concludes with detailed recommendations on improving the decentralized delivery of education and health services.
KEYWORDS: Devolution, decentralization, service delivery, health, education.

JEL: H75.