This article empirically examines the interest rate pass‐through mechanism for Pakistan, using six‐month treasury bills as a proxy for the policy rate (the exogenous variable) and the weighted average lending rate and weighted average deposit rate as endogenous variables representing the lending and deposit channels, respectively. We use data for a six‐year period from June 2005 to May 2011, published by the central monetary authority in Pakistan. The widely accepted error correction mechanism is used to examine the short‐run and longrun pass‐through; a vector error correction mechanism impulse response function helps measure the short‐run speed of the pass‐through. We find that there is an incomplete pass‐through in Pakistan for both the lending and deposit channels. The impact is greater on the lending channel than on the deposit channel in both the short and long run, while the adjustment speed is higher for the lending channel.
KEYWORDS: Interest rate pass‐through, interest rate channel, transmission mechanism, monetary policy, Pakistan.

JEL: E58, E43.

This paper examines the behavior of beta coefficients (systematic risk) for underlying stocks around the introduction of single-stock futures (SSFs) contracts in the Pakistani market, by employing models that account for nonsynchronous and thin trading and varying market conditions as “bull” and “bear” markets. Unlike the results of earlier studies on US markets, the empirical evidence tends to support a decline in systematic risk for the majority of underlying stocks in the post-futures listings period. Nevertheless, similar to SSFs stocks, we also find empirical evidence of a decrease in systematic risk for many of the control group stocks. This indicates that changes in beta estimates for SSFs-listed stocks might not be induced by the introduction of SSFs contract trading, but could be attributed to other market-wide or industry changes that have affected the overall market. Several plausible reasons, such as lack of program trading activities normally associated with index futures, market microstructure differences between developed markets and a developing market such as Pakistan, and the capturing of the “bear” and “bull” market effects on stock betas in our estimation procedure could explain these different results for Pakistan’s market.
KEYWORDS: Systematic risk, beta, stock index futures, single-stock futures, stock price volatility, GARCH model, bear and bull markets, thin trading, Pakistan.

JEL: G10, G13.

This study uses a structural model to analyze the co-determinants of capital structure and stock returns. Applying a generalized method of moments (GMM) model to a panel dataset for 100 nonfinancial firms for the period 2006– 10, our results indicate that both leverage and stock returns affect each other but that the former has a dominant effect on the latter. The results illustrate that profitability, growth, and liquidity are significant determinants of leverage and stock returns. Profitability negatively affects leverage and positively affects stock returns. Growth has a positive effect, while liquidity has a negative effect on leverage and stock returns. Firm size does not have any significant effect on either capital structure or stock returns.
KEYWORDS: Capital structure, stock returns, GMM, Pakistan.

JEL: C33, C36, G30.

This paper analyzes the impact of major factors on the export of mangoes from Pakistan. We use a cointegration approach and error correction mechanism applied to data for the period 1970–2005. Mango exports are regressed against the index of relative prices of mango exports (2000 = 100), the quantity of domestic mango production, real agricultural gross domestic product (GDP), the length of all-weather roads, and international standardization, i.e., the impact of the World Trade Organization agreement. The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller test reveal that all the data series are I(1). Applying Johansen’s test shows that the highest elasticity coefficients are found for mango production in the short and long run, followed by real agricultural GDP. The Granger causality test points to the bi-directional causality of mango exports with the relative price index and allweather roads, and unidirectional causality with real agricultural GDP and mango production. The study recommends promoting proper orchard management, developing the appropriate infrastructure, and stabilizing export prices to increase mango exports from Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Mango, unit root, cointegration, Granger causality, Pakistan.

JEL: Q11.

This study examines the impact of health information provision on healthrelated knowledge and corresponding behaviors. Our main assumption is that women’s health can be improved by adopting health protective and healthenhancing behaviors. The study employs a before–after, no-control-group design, aimed at examining whether exposure to health knowledge concerning breast cancer can change participants’ behavior in relation to breast self-examination. Our sample consists of 50 young females whose knowledge and behavior related to breast cancer was assessed in a pre-exposure phase, followed by an exposure session during which they were shown a video film, participated in a discussion, and were given health education literature about breast cancer to take home. Two weeks later, the participants were reassessed, using the same measures. Their health knowledge and behavior were found to have improved significantly. We recommend that formal education should incorporate health education as part of the curricula at all academic levels, especially for women. The mass media can also play an important role in improving public health protective behavior.
KEYWORDS: Health, breast cancer, behavior, Pakistan.

JEL: I10.

This paper investigates the causal impact of public school enrolment on child labor. Our main hypothesis is as follows: Is school enrolment a substitute for child labor? Recognizing that schooling and work choices are jointly determined by parents in a utility maximizing framework, the study applies an instrumental variable solution to the problem of simultaneity. This approach entails using the receipt of free textbooks and access to a public primary facility as instruments for public school enrolment. Using data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey for 2007/08, our working sample consists of children between 5 and 14 years of age, which makes up 25 percent of the surveyed population. The results suggest that public school enrolment can be used as a substitute for child labor. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in a household’s enrolment ratio has the potential to reduce the number of hours of paid labor by almost 5 percentage points, ceteris paribus. This substitutability is highest among poor, urban, male children. Moreover, the incidence of child labor is higher among larger poor families.
KEYWORDS: Child labor, school enrolment, instrumental variable, tobit, fixed effects, education subsidy, Pakistan.

JEL: F66.

The economic and institutional structure required to successfully adopt and implement an inflation targeting framework (ITF) is often lacking in emerging economies. This paper evaluates these structures both qualitatively and quantitatively for Pakistan’s economy. Although our comprehensive assessment finds that many of the core requirements remain unrealized, the literature and real-time experience argue that an ITF remains possible for emerging economies even in the absence of these conditions. We investigate whether—were the State Bank of Pakistan to adopt an ITF—there exists a stable and significant relationship between the policy rate (monetary tool) and inflation measure (objective). It is important to analyze this bivariate relationship, given the key role of the interest rate in mitigating deviations between actual and target inflation when working within an ITF. To illustrate this relationship, we use Granger Causality test, but our estimates fail to find any significant link between the interest rate and inflation. On the basis of our overall findings, we suggest that Pakistan, in the absence of most of the fundamental requirements of an ITF, is perhaps not yet ready for it.
KEYWORDS: Inflation targeting, Pakistan, monetary policy.

JEL: E52, E30, E58.

Clusters have the potential to grow, but their potential in Pakistan is rarely analyzed and examined. This study examines the knitwear cluster of Lahore in general and the performance of enterprises in particular. Most of the literature on clusters in Pakistan has not looked at the characteristics of the individual enterprises that play a pivotal role in cluster development. Using primary data collected from 59 finished-knitwear producers in Lahore, this study assesses the role of human capital in acquiring multifaceted innovations. We find that general human capital acquired by schooling and specific human capital acquired through operational experience is associated with the size of the enterprise. Additionally, specific human capital acquired through operational and marketing experience is strongly correlated with improved marketing channels.
KEYWORDS: Clusters, human capital, schooling, multifaceted, Pakistan.

JEL: E24.

According to the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect, an exogenous temporary increase in the terms of trade leads to an improvement in the current account balance. This paper uses a recursive vector autoregression to investigate empirically the existence of the HLM effect in Pakistan, using a time series dataset for the period 1980–2009. Two important results emerge. First, real income deteriorates with an improvement in the terms of trade. Second, the current account balance also responds negatively to innovations in the terms of trade, which implies that the HLM effect does not exist in Pakistan.
KEYWORDS: Terms of trade, current account, economic growth, recursive VAR, Pakistan.

JEL: C3, F32, F41.

Education is one of the most important means of economic development, and there is consensus among policymakers that it is better to be educated than not. The debate on education is not, therefore, whether it is good or bad, rather it centers on whether the state should intervene in its provision. Public provision of education at the school level is generally considered one of the most important investments for creating social opportunities to help the wider population actively participate in various economic activities. This study investigates whether public spending on education in Pakistan is pro-poor at various levels of schooling. We find that public spending at the primary and secondary level is progressive, while higher education spending is regressive. These results hold at the national and provincial level. Based on these findings, we recommend that the government increase its spending on primary, secondary, and technical education. Higher education, however, should be provided on merit, and the private sector should be encouraged to provide high-quality education.
KEYWORDS: Education, economic, development, Pakistan.

JEL: I25.

This study estimates a set of fixed effects/random effects models to ascertain the long-run relationships between poverty, income inequality, and growth using pooled data from eight household income and expenditure surveys conducted between 1992/93 and 2007/08 in Pakistan. The results show that growth and inequality play significant roles in affecting poverty, and that the effect of the former is substantially larger than that of the latter. Furthermore, growth has a significant positive impact on inequality. The results also show that the absolute magnitude of net growth elasticity of poverty is smaller than that of gross growth elasticity of poverty, suggesting that some of the growth effect on poverty is offset by the rise in inequality. The analysis at a regional level shows that both the gross and net growth elasticity of poverty are higher in rural areas than in urban areas, whereas the inequality elasticity of poverty is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. At a policy level, we recommend that, in order to reduce poverty, the government should implement policies focusing on growth as well as adopting strategies geared toward improving income distribution.
KEYWORDS: Poverty, inequality, growth, pooled data, Pakistan.

JEL: I32, O40.

McCartney, Mathew, Pakistan – The Political Economy of Growth, Stagnation and the State, 1951–2009, Routledge, London and New York, ISBN13: 978-0-415-57747-2 and ISBN13: 978-0-203-81476-5, 2011, pp. 241. This book is, one can assert without a doubt, sui generis, unique in that it provides an entirely new perspective on the development of Pakistan’s political economy. It is a thorough and objective analysis, an eye-opener, and the author leaves no stone unturned.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, development, Growth, capital, political economy.

JEL: N/A.

The Lahore School’s Eighth Annual Conference on Management of the Pakistan Economy took place on 16 – 17 May, 2012 at the school’s Main Campus. The topic of this year’s conference was: “Towards Accelerated Economic Growth in Pakistan: Its Need and Feasibility”. It was attended by the country’s leading economists, Pakistani and foreign academics, and renowned researchers from India, Sri Lanka, United Kingdom, and United States. Some 25 research papers and oral presentations were made during the two days of the conference. The richness of the discussions during the two days of the conference cannot be adequately captured in a short report but, as a record of the salient issues raised, it could be useful for the participants as well as others interested in the subject. Since discussions in different sessions tended to overlap, what is offered here is a composite summing-up rather than a chronological account of the actual proceedings.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, Lahore School, Annual Conference, Pakistan economy.

JEL: N/A.

This article attempts to show that a strategy for accelerated growth for Pakistan is both necessary and feasible. Pakistan’s macroeconomic conditions are broadly similar to some of its more rapidly growing neighbors. The country’s macroeconomic imbalances and inflation need to be brought down, but the required adjustment does not entail precipitate action, which could further depress the economy. We develop a “Heterodox Scenario,” which shows that macroeconomic adjustments can be phased in over the next few years and will be easier to make if the economy were to grow more rapidly. For accelerated growth to materialize, as a minimum, determined steps are needed to overcome the energy crisis, sharply raise the investment rate—particularly, private investment—and strengthen Pakistan’s competitiveness in the world market. A national strategy is needed toward that end.
KEYWORDS: Growth, inflation, economy, strategy, Pakistan.

JEL: O10, E22.

One hears little about the Planning Commission’s Framework for Economic Growth launched a year ago. This is indicative of its inappropriateness and lack of consideration of Pakistan’s economy or its structures and political economy. The Framework avoids tackling the core issues of taxation, distribution, and equity. It privileges the market and free enterprise over the role of the state, and undermines and dismisses the significant role and contribution of the government and state in promoting growth, particularly at a time when market failure has made economists rethink the role of markets after 2008. By ignoring central issues related to politics and the articulation of power, and of issues that fall in the realm of political economy, the Planning Commission constructs a technicist script that has little value to the messy world of realpolitics.
KEYWORDS: Growth, political economy, Planning Commission, Pakistan.

JEL: O40, O1.

This article discusses the impact of the current stagflation in Pakistan on the labor market and poverty. The paper presents a preliminary explanation of why the labor market and poverty impact of the current stagflation may be far smaller than projected in recent studies, especially for the rural economy. The main conclusions that emerge are that (1) The overwhelming expected negative impact of low economic growth, high double-digit inflation, and crippling energy shortages on poverty and the labor market appear to have been cushioned by the large increase in remittances, rising wages in agriculture and services, and social safety nets; (2) there is, however, no reason for complacency since over 20 million people live in absolute poverty and that the economy remains in deep stagflation, (3) the PSLM (HIES) 2010/11 data should be made publicly available so that it can be subject to more critical analysis and (4) studies on poverty should be based on a close integration of macro-sectoral–micro-factors to fully capture the underlying “poverty dynamics.”
KEYWORDS: Macro-dynamics, economic growth, cycles, Pakistan.

JEL: F43, P46.

This article has a rather modest aim. In contrast to most analyses that abound, it submits that Pakistan’s energy crisis stems primarily from a suboptimal policy and only secondarily from governance issues. This does not mean that governance is not an important issue. With around 20 different organizations involved in the power sector—e.g., WAPDA, PEPCO, PPIB, AEDB, GENCOs, and IPPs—there is much scope for governance failures. In addition, there is much malfeasance perpetrated by political and other interests. Still, since governance mechanisms are significantly shaped by incentive systems and operating policy regimes, we will argue that the problem lies primarily in policy choices made earlier, and focus in particular on two elements of the policy that need to be revisited.
KEYWORDS: Power crisis, policy, governance, Pakistan.

JEL: G30.

Since the 1950s, Pakistan has been trying to industrialize by investing in industries that have low value-added, notably cotton textiles. Here, low value-added means that the export value of the cotton textiles less the value of the raw cotton used to make them was low relative to the cost of the investment needed to make the textiles, i.e., contrary to the usual assumption, cotton textile manufacture was capital-intensive. The cause was the protection of the importing countries. But goods with high value-added in this sense required advanced technical knowledge, which is mostly the proprietary knowledge of the firms whose research and development (R&D) has generated it. Over time, all the production of goods that do not require such technical knowledge has passed to low-wage countries whose mutual competition keeps the value-added low. Since Pakistan cannot compete in high-value-added goods, it must emulate the East Asian economies by collaborating with firms in high-wage countries—i.e., subcontracting them to make simple components—and progress through such collaboration to receiving the knowledge and training to making components with higher value-added.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, textiles, protection, value-added, subcontracting.

JEL: O14.

This study attempts to evaluate exporters’ perceptions of the problems they face in exploiting their full competitive potential in the international market. Using firm-level survey data, we find that a shortage of skilled labor, the energy crisis, institutional rigidities, market imperfections, and weaknesses in physical infrastructure are the key impediments to achieving export competitiveness. Policies geared toward improving the quality of skilled labor, resolving the energy crisis, and reducing transaction costs by improving the institutional and physical infrastructure are key to expanding Pakistan’s exports on a sustained basis.
KEYWORDS: Pakistan, export competitiveness, exporting procedures, certifications.

JEL: F13.

This paper identifies the main impediments to investment and industrial productivity in Punjab, which have led to a decline in growth. This is done by analyzing the impediments and constraints to productivity and investment using the World Bank’s 2007 Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) data at the level of Punjab’s seven main industrial zones. This is followed by an analysis of a pilot survey of 100 firms conducted in the Lahore district. Almost 71 percent of the firms surveyed declared electricity to be the most important constraint and macroeconomic stability was ranked as the second-most important constraint. An inadequate workforce, access to raw materials, and corruption were ranked third, fourth, and fifth, respectively.
KEYWORDS: Industry, constraint, Pakistan.

JEL: O10.