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Published:Winter 2022
Compensation structures of public sector employees have significant implications
for public service delivery and employment. If public sector employees get relatively lower
pay, then the government can face difficulties in retaining trained and qualified workers.
However, if public sector employees receive higher salaries it is possible that younger
people may prefer to join the public sector. If this is accompanied by limited job absorption
capacity in the public sector, it is possible for there to be substantial unemployment. This
study has analysed the wage differentials by using the data from the Pakistan Labour Force
Survey 2020-21. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition suggests that at the executive level, public
sector workers are facing wage penalties, while other occupational groups in the public
sector are enjoying wage premiums. The highest wage premiums are for clerical staff
followed by unskilled workers, services, technician, professionals and agricultural workers.
KEYWORDS:
public sector,
private sector,
wages,
employment.
JEL: H3, E620, J31, J45, L32.
How did Supply and Demand Shocks Affect Industries and Occupations in COVID-19? Evidence from Pakistan
Muhammad Zubair Mumtaz, Zachary A. Smith
Published:Jan- June 2023
This study examines the supply and demand shocks in Pakistan that affected occupations and industries during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use the remote labor index and essential scores for undertaking work activities from home across occupations proposed by del Rio-Chanona et al. (2020). To estimate demand shocks, we follow del Rio-Chanona et al. (2020), who employed estimates from the US Congressional Budget Office (2006) that attempted to forecast how the US economy would be affected at the industry level if a severe influenza epidemic occurred. We document that demand shocks most significantly affect the transport and food services industries. In contrast, the manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and handicraft and printing industries are likely to be impacted by supply shocks. Food services and restaurants experience a bigger combined shock. Relative to the pre-pandemic period, aggregate shocks suggest a decrease in the output of Pakistan’s economy by one-fifth if the pandemic were to seriously affect the economy, threatening 21 percent of jobs and lowering total wage income by 18 percent. Considering a second wave and a new variant of coronavirus, we estimate that aggregate shocks may continue, and the economy's output could deteriorate by one-fourth if the region experiences a significant outbreak. Finally, we compare our findings with the US economy and find differences between supply and demand shocks in both economies.
KEYWORDS:
wages,
financing shocks,
value-added,
COVID-19,
employment.
JEL: J21, O49, I15.
Easydata-MD: A Monthly Dataset for Macroeconomic Research on Pakistan
Ateeb Akhter Shah Syed, Hassan Raza, Mohsin Waheed
Published:Jan- June 2023
This paper introduces the monthly State Bank of Pakistan’s EasyData, for conducting empirical macroeconomic analysis and forecasting for Pakistan's economy. For this purpose. We perform a forecasting exercise using the conventional econometric models and the most recent machine-learning algorithms. We find that the machine-learning models outperform the benchmark and regression models based on observed factors. Furthermore, the dataset has a higher ability to predict the external variables, a possible outcome of Pakistan's economy and its persistent balance of payment problem. The focus of policy has been to address this issue.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan,
forecasting,
EasyData,
factors,
machine learning,
machine-learning.
JEL: F47, C55.
Published:Jan- June 2023
This study examines the uncertainty of consumer inflation expectations in Pakistan using the data collected by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) through the Consumer Confidence Survey (CCS). CCS has been conducted every second month since January 2012. The research employs round numbers to calculate inflation expectation uncertainty and finds it countercyclical and positively correlated with inflation. Further, it also displays a weakly positive correlation with inflation disagreement, inflation volatility, and the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index. The study also reveals that inflation expectation uncertainty is higher for female, less educated, and young respondents compared to businessmen, males, older people, and educated. The study suggests asymmetric behavior of inflation expectations uncertainty for high and low inflation levels, where uncertainty is high when inflation is high. The study also suggests that inflation uncertainty is significantly related to food inflation. Lastly, the study establishes that inflation expectation uncertainty affects the consumption of durable goods by influencing consumer spending attitudes.
KEYWORDS:
uncertainty,
environmental resources,
Inflation Expectations,
Consumer.
JEL: E31, D18.
The Impact of Services Quality on Electricity Theft Reduction: An Empirical Analysis of Electricity Distribution Utilities in Pakistan
Iqra Mushtaq, Faisal Mehmood Mirza
Published:Jan- June 2023
This study investigates the socioeconomic, administrative, and service quality determinants of electricity theft in Pakistan. The effect of service quality standards on electricity theft is estimated using panel data from eight electricity distribution utilities from 2006 to 2018. The results of utilizing the One-step system Generalized Method of Moments estimator confirm the statistically significant impact of social, administrative, and service quality variables on the illegal use of electricity. Based on the findings, Pakistan's National Electric Power Regulatory Authority is advised to take measures to improve the quality of services. In contrast, the nation’s Central Power Purchasing Agency is advised to improve administrative structure by separating retail function from distribution by electric distribution.
KEYWORDS:
Pakistan,
Electricity theft,
Distribution utilities;,
Service quality.
JEL: C33, O14.
Sustainable Development and Women’s Personal Empowerment for Becoming Socially Inclusive: A Study from the Informal Sector in Lahore, Pakistan
Haifa Asif, Sana Fayyaz
Published:Jan- June 2023
Women employed in informal sectors are integral to a nation’s overall economic growth, and to better development outcomes. This study aims to examine the capabilities of these women not only in terms of personal empowerment, but in the context of sustainable development via social inclusion. Previous studies have only focused on microcredit as a “magic wand” for increasing women's empowerment and their standard of living, without the inclusion of feminist theory. The inclusion of feminist theory and social inclusion in the discussion concerning the provision of financial support to women in Pakistan, allows us to properly examine the role of sustainable development and women's empowerment in Pakistan. This study is quantitative and descriptive. Using a survey questionnaire on the cross sectional data source, the 118 women borrowers of Lahore, Pakistan, have been investigated by stratified random sampling technique. The Multinomial logit and Probit regression models have been used for data analysis. The study's results supported the actuality that women need to be financially and personally empowered, in order to benefit from greater social inclusion.
KEYWORDS:
Social inclusion,
sustainable development,
microfinance,
women's personal empowerment,
informal sector.
JEL: O40, O17.
Are Consumer Expectations Forward-Looking: A Case for Pakistan
Assistant Director, Research Department, State Bank of Pakistan
Published:July- Dec 2023
We have used the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) algorithm to calculate the forward-looking consumer inflation expectation forward-lookingness. We have used DTW instead of widely used parametric techniques as this algorithm does not require specific assumptions relating to time series data. The results suggest that expectations are more backward-looking from 2012 to 2022. Furthermore, we examined consumers' response to the exchange rate regime shift and found evidence of consumers becoming more forwardlooking due to the deliberate change in policy stance from fixed to managed float. This suggests that changes in economic policy can directly impact the consumer's expectations formation process.
KEYWORDS:
Consumers, inflation, inflation expectations..
JEL: C63, F31.
A Regional Analysis of Poverty in Pakistan: Trends and Decomposition
Inza Murtaza,Husnain Ali and Muhammad Idrees
Published:July- Dec 2023
This study conducted a regional analysis of poverty in Pakistan with a particular focus on trends and decomposition. Nine Household Integrated Economic Survey rounds were used in this study from 2001-02 to 2018-19. This study estimated poverty using time series data from all the regions and provinces of Pakistan. The unit of wellbeing used in the study is consumption, and the unit of analysis used is the adult equivalent. Our results show that the poverty rate decreased in all regions and provinces over the analysis period. Poverty rates decreased in all regions from 2001-02 to 2010-11. The decomposition shows that the highest population share is found in Punjab, but it has the lowest poverty share. At the same time, Baluchistan has the lowest population share and the highest poverty share. KPK and Sindh have half of their population below the poverty level. Results show that urban poverty share is higher overall than rural poverty share.
KEYWORDS:
Poverty, distribution, trends, decomposition, poverty line..
JEL: I32.
Rethinking Food Insecurity Assessment Methods: Evidence from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Mohsin Khan and Zhang Yanxia
Published:July- Dec 2023
This study evaluates three standard food insecurity measures—Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), Food Consumption Score (FCS), and Minimum Dietary Energy Intake Requirement (MDER)—using survey data from 300 individuals in Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. We find a strong correlation (p < 0.01) between FCS and MDER (ρ = 0.93), indicating alignment in assessing dietary energy sufficiency. In contrast, correlations between FCS and HFIAS (ρ = 0.087) and between MDER and HFIAS (ρ = 0.079) are weak, suggesting that HFIAS captures different dimensions of food insecurity. Comparative analysis reveals that FCS and MDER often indicate more severe food insecurity than HFIAS. Bannu consistently shows higher severe food insecurity rates than Dera Ismail Khan, with ANOVA results confirming significant district differences (F = 76.14 for MDER, p = 0.000002; F = 129.1 for FCS, p = 0.00002; F = 11.85 for HFIAS, p = 0.000658). Vulnerable groups, including daily wage households, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and female-headed households, exhibit higher rates of food insecurity. These disparities arise from methodological inconsistencies and the subjective nature of self-reported measures, highlighting the need for accurate measurement through comprehensive surveys to effectively understand the full extent of food insecurity.
KEYWORDS:
Food insecurity, internally displaced persons, female-headed households, Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS),Minimum Dietary Energy Intake Requirement (MDER)..
JEL: Q18, C83, O13, D12.
Navigating the Economic Landscape in the Asian Pacific: A Study of Climate, Security, and Economic Spillovers across Stock Markets
Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed, Muhammad Shahid Rasheed and Kamran Ali
Published:July- Dec 2023
The Asian Pacific region is spearheading the post-pandemic economic revival, and
exploring regional dynamics is becoming increasingly relevant for researchers. In this regard,
stock markets have always profoundly influenced a country's economic health, and its behavior
varies significantly globally. This indicates stock markets' contextualized nature and response
to varying incoming information. Therefore, the study examines the interplay of behavioral and
developmental factors in selected stock markets from South Asia. This study draws upon data
from 2014 to 2023 and utilizes VAR-based connectedness models to analyze the dynamics of
stock market connectedness in the region. This study also considers the influence of pertinent
regional climate, security, and economic challenges on stock market behavior. The findings
indicate the presence of moderate spillovers among stock markets and from economic,
environmental, and security information. Further, most of this spillover is attributed to the
markets in developed nations and the economic news sentiments, while climate information's
contagion is increasingly becoming relevant. These findings explain the intricate dynamics of
these pertinent variables, significantly adding to the understanding of the region.
KEYWORDS:
South Asia, stock markets, spillover, sustainability, terrorism, sentiments.
JEL: E44, F21, G14, O11, O44.